And I think it is a lesson to be learned for Chris Coons. From Hotline:
In the wake of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s upset defeat in Alaska to a little-known Tea Partier last month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Delaware Republican party made a conscious decision to go nuclear on O’Donnell – an understandable one, given the immense amount of personal baggage that was well-documented in the local press and Weekly Standard.
Delaware Republican party chairman Tom Ross publicly proclaimed she was downright unelectable, saying couldn’t even win an election for dogcatcher in the state. NRSC Chairman John Cornyn told CNN, on the day of the election, that he had serious doubts about O’Donnell. All that negativity had an impact, but it may well have backfired.
Delaware is not Alaska, and Rep. Mike Castle isn’t Murkowski. Delaware is a state that has the unusual post-election tradition of “Return Day” where politicians of both parties meet together to bury the hatchet. Pundits interpreted O’Donnell’s conservative ideology as inconsistent with Delaware’s milquetoast political culture – very true – but it was Castle and the GOP establishment’s decision to throw the opposition research book at O’Donnell that was even more out of touch with the state’s non-confrontational environment.
Bingo. The Delaware Way strikes again, and it benefitted the candidate that no one ever could conceive of benefitting. O’Donnell was airing negative attacks at Castle, sure. But the reality of Mike Castle, the all around “Mr. Nice Guy,” the beloved “Delaware’s Best,” Mike the Moderate, clashed irredeemably with his name attached to the myriad negative ads he ran. Mike Castle hasn’t run a negative campaign since… well, not in my adult memory. I hear he called his opponent a liar in the 1970’s. Forty freaking years ago. And Mike Castle hasn’t really needed to run a negative campaign. He has not had a competitve campaign, either in the general election or in the GOP primary, in 18 years. In fact, that is why we were all excited for this race, because finally Mike Castle would face some questions about his record in a competitive race.
Because Mike Castle has coasted to victory on his name brand for the entirety of his Congressional career. And, suprisingly, the first thing he did when saw a threat was to go devastatingly negative. And that destroyed his brand, and forced actual conservative voters (not the O’Donnell thugs) to actually look at the record and the man. And they did not like what they saw. (A side note, I am now convinced Mike Castle would have lost to any Democrat, Coons or Biden, for if his first reaction was to go that negative on O’Donnell, he surely would have gone negative on Biden or Coons).
Hotline looked at the NRSC’s record in fighting off Teabagger candidates, and they have failed spectactularly because they have always gone horribly and very publically negative against the rebel candidates. But the NRCC, the House counterpart, has been successful in defending their establishment candidates, because it has done so behind the scenes and quietly.
So the lesson for Coons is: don’t go negative on the personal issues. Forget about the lack of education. Forget about the foreclosures and history of bad debts. Forget about her lenghty history of lying.
Contrast on the substantive issues (and there is plenty to use there, for O’Donnell is a radical creationist freak intend on installing a fundamentalist agenda on Delaware).
The lesson for the DSCC: send your money, but stay away.
Coons will win this election easily, if he keeps his nose to the ground, addressing voter concerns and their issues. The Delaware Way awards that.