Winners & Losers
I don’t know about you but I’m still a bit shell-shocked by the election results last night. I think we knew it was possible that Christine O’Donnell could win, but didn’t think it was probable. Let’s assess besides O’Donnell & Castle who are the winners and losers from last night’s primary?
Winners
Sarah Palin & Tea Party Express
When O’Donnell began her surge about 2 weeks ago she had the backing of some obscure rightwing groups like Concerned Women for America. After Murkowski’s loss, Castle & the Delaware GOP opened up on O’Donnell with everything and at least from our perspective, looked to have stalled her momentum. Sarah Palin stuck out her neck to endorse O’Donnell. The DeMint, NRA & Bachmann endorsements all came after Palin. Despite Palin’s spotty record she now will have the (deserved) reputation as kingmaker.
PPP Polls
PPP Polls also stuck out their neck on this race. They were the only pollster willing to come in the final week before the race and they captured the O’Donnell surge. Not only did they catch the O’Donnell surge but they were willing to say O’Donnell could win by even more (from a post on Monday):
There’s a pretty wide range of outcomes that would not surprise me tomorrow given the difficulties of polling a Republican electorate in a small blue state. It would be no shock if Castle hangs on to win but when you look at the internal numbers and compare them to Murkowski I also wouldn’t be all that surprised if O’Donnell ends up winning by 10.
Chris Coons
This one is obvious. Overnight the U.S. Senate seat in Delaware switched from “likely Republican” to “likely Democrat.” PPP tweeted some of their general election numbers – O’Donnell favorability is 29/50 and only 31% of Delawareans think she’s fit to hold office. Democrats can’t afford to get complacent here but O’Donnell is pretty well defined already while Coons is more of an unknown.
Losers
GOP Establishment
There’s a lot of blame to pass around here. The Delaware GOP is no doubt reeling right now. The whole organization was organized to support Mike Castle and spent the last month attacking Christine O’Donnell. I don’t see how the Delaware GOP survives. O’Donnell is now the top Republican in the state. I think she is justified to ask for the resignations of Tom Ross and other officials. The NRSC and John Cornyn are also losers here. Mike Castle is one of their top recruits and seeing him fail is a blow. In fact, the NRSC has already announced they’re pulling out of the state. Not to worry though, I’m sure Christine will have plenty of Tea Party money. I think it’s obvious now that the GOP is run by Sarah Palin, the Tea Party and Rush Limbaugh. Even Karl Rove is on the outs. Check out Karl Rove arguing with Sean Hannity over O’Donnell:
Delaware
I know we’ve spent a lot of time bashing Mike Castle, who deserves criticism for not standing up to the forces of his own party. However, it is quite sad to see a long career of service to Delaware end in the fashion it did last night. O’Donnell won by distorting Castle’s record, turning his 90% record of voting with the GOP into a “liberal” voting record. Delaware’s reputation for clean politics has taken a beating as well.
Pragmatism
The Republican Party’s hard right turn has given a blow to moderate Republicans and concept of bipartisanship. I think it’s always been a bit of a pipe dream but the new configuration of the GOP is absolutely committed to not doing anything with Democrats. I fear for our country – gridlock means we won’t be able to address important issues (like unemployment). The defeat of Castle sends a clear signal to GOP lawmakers – we don’t want you to work with Democrats. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe have to be quaking in their boots right now.
Beau Biden
I know he had his reasons for not running and hopefully he’s still happy with his decision. If one of Biden’s main concerns was taking on popular Mike Castle, how dumb do you think he’s feeling right now?
Tags: 2010 Elections, Primaries
I say reconsider Tom Ross. He kept his nerve even as Castle punked out and refused to call out the tbag taliban.
Nice write up, UI. Thanks.
I get how it fits the narrative, but I’m not sure I buy the whole kingmaker thing. Her candidates lose as often as they win, it seems, but more importantly, doesn’t that role presume that the king who is made has some viability?
Joe Miller was clearly a king made by Sarah Palin – he’s going to win. But, if O’Donnell loses she will have effectively torpedoed a Republican pickup opportunity. A kingmaker does not strengthen her claim to that title by setting up a king who is toppled soon thereafter.
I guess another way of asking it is, in the context of Delaware’s Senate race and its national implications, was Palin a kingmaker or a spoiler? It seems like all of us on the left and a sizeable portion of the right think the latter.
…Of course, if we let O’Donnell win, then I’m wrong, and Delaware really is ruled by the House of Palin.
Pragmatism
On the forefront, this most definitely died last night. A few months ago, in an almost intelligent back-and-forth with one of her supporters, I was told in more words that pragmatism not only has no room in “his party,” it’s also a sign of weakness and liberalism and it must be stopped. Pragmatism will now be found within a soon-to-exist speakeasy near you.
Good point yeoman. Palin is a kingmaker within the Republican Party. Time will tell whether that carries over but her general unpopularity shows that the nation has not taken the same hard right turn that the Republican Party has. I think the Tea Party is the destruction of the Republican Party but I guess time will tell there. I think the question is where do the sane conservatives and center-right people go? Do they keep propping up the beast that the Republican Party has become?
Let me add that I think DelawareLiberal will be a winner in this. Yesterday was our single best traffic day in history.
Time for us to put on our man-pants (no offense intended to our ladies).
Man pants? I thought that would be commando?
Don’t forget to thank Tea Party leaders Pete duPont and Charlie Copeland for organizing the Tea Party rally in Wilmington.
Great point, think123. They ‘blowed themselves up rill good’.
Which reminds me. Since the Caesar Rodney Institute is/was nothing but a Copeland/duPont front organization for what was the Rethug Party, perhaps the brilliant ‘idea people’ who cashed pay checks from there will be looking for work elsewhere soon, and Charles ‘Bouvier de Flanders’ Copeland will be looking elsewhere to throw good inherited money after bad.
Losers:
The News Journal. No one there saw this coming. It was a “shocker” (their headline) only to people who’ve sucked up to Castle for years and years and never believed the hicks downstate could actually beat someone from above the canal.
The GOP made a valiant effort to control this Tea Party movement but got destroyed by the monster they created.
UI – How did they try to control it? The returns show it was mostly a downstate movement, and the mainstream Sussex and Kent elected officials mostly stayed away and tried to avoid the crazies. Copeland and Pete have zero credibility down here. Simpson, Booth, Hocker, Briggs King … none of them got involved in the nuttiness.
I’d include the people of Delaware as losers. 🙁
We won’t fix this until we acknowledge that people voted for Christine with some legitimate concerns.
I believe they are wrong in their solutions… I even believe that they haven’t defined their problems correctly. But we can’t dismiss them as ignorant hicks… they’re adult citizens of my state, and they made the choice they thought was appropriate to their issues.
Blowing that off helps no one, least of all Democratic candidates.
We won’t fix this until we acknowledge that people voted for Christine with some legitimate concerns.
So if a bunch of high school jocks go around stuffing nerds into their lockers and giving them swirlies – does that mean we are supposed to acknowledge the school has a nerd problem?
Frau Bachmann endorsed O’Whackamole as “Delaware’s next United States Governor.”
anon, “I believe they are wrong in their solutions… I even believe that they haven’t defined their problems correctly.” did you read that far?
So I’d say, “the jocks have defined this as ‘having a nerd problem’, we have to get in and work on a better definition and solution”. Likewise, if you have dedicated voters that see compassion for people less fortunate as “theft by taxation” you have to rewrite that narrative. Because it doesn’t WORK for our society when snotty D’s just complain about rednecks and ‘slower lower’.
I’m not sure the concerns are legitimate. There is now a lucurative industry in place that wins when people get angry over nonsense. The difference between this race and all past races is that the industry leaders released thier customers to vote against a Republican.
Rush, Hannity, Palin and lesser industry leaders like Levin no longer need the GOP.
Hereagain,
Great point.
“Angry over nonsense”. Nice.
People worry about their jobs. People worry about their kids. People worry about their retirement. That ‘industry” turns those legitimate concerns into hate, to line their own pockets.
We can’t fight that by telling people they’re stupid to trust Rush, or their pastors, or the guys at work. We have to fight it by acknowledging their concerns and giving them a hate-free alternative. It’s not the easy job. Selling fear is easy. But it’s OUR job.
And thank you. (cross post)
I agree with heragain, but can’t they be both adult citizens AND ignorant hicks? Because I’m pretty sure they are.
LOL. Ok, Geezer, go with that. Just don’t work it into your stump speech. 😀
Relax. You’ve convinced me. In my defense, cap and tax is nonsense as is, tax cuts for millionaires helps the economy.
People worry about their jobs. People worry about their kids. People worry about their retirement.
Agreed. But if people think that Christine O’Donnell and plans like Paul Ryan’s GOP roadmap are the answer, then you run right back in to the “dumb redneck, slower Delaware” problem.
We have to fight it by acknowledging their concerns and giving them a hate-free alternative.
Nobody could have tried harder at this than Obama. You can lead a horse to water…
Winner: County Executive Paul Clark. And everything that comes with him.
We have to fight it by acknowledging their concerns and giving them a hate-free alternative.
Hate is the secret sauce that allows Republicans to overcome their natural electoral minority. Take away the hate, and you have a small gaggle of wealthy investors and business owners politely and uselessly advocating for tax cuts.
Losers:BIG TIME
I wonder where all the “ambitious” Delaware democrats too timid to throw their hats in the ring gathered this morning to participate in a mutual ass-kicking contest?
“You can lead a horse to water…”
Wait, wait, I know that one! In the words of the late, great Phillies GM Paul Owens, “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t stick the dumb son of a bitch’s head in it!”
The Delaware GOP has used up all the players on its bench and is now putting in the potbellied screaming fans with blue paint on their chests.
If anybody was thinking about a run at Carper’s seat now’s the time go get started. The Repubs got nobody left.
“If anybody was thinking about a run at Carper’s seat …” Christine will probably be running for it.
LOL… I meant Dems running for Carper’s seat.
WINNERS: Brandywine Hundred D’s
LOSERS: Brandywine Hundred R’s
Just looking at the district-by-district breakdown, Castle & Rollins won the northern ‘burbs and Chateau Country along with some city ED’s. That’s about it.
Brandywine Hundred R’s have always voted. This could well be the year that they don’t. They’re not voting for Christine, and they may well no longer give two bleeps for the party that features her as standard-bearer.
Rep. Bryon Short will now win reelection easily. He was likely to win anyway, but this has destroyed the candidacy of Judy Travis, who sure took her sweet time gearing up for the campaign.
Rep. Dennis Williams is much more likely to be reelected if his Chateau Country constituents sit this one out.
Tom Kovach is now clearly endangered vs. Debra Heffernan.
And Cathy Cloutier’s climb just got that much more difficult.
Who knows? Maybe even Monsignor Lavelle will hear footsteps.
And, don’t forget, each and every one of these Rethugs will be asked if they’re supporting O’Donnell. They really don’t have an answer that won’t piss off some element of the Rethug Party.
One example will suffice–Cloutier has strong NRA support. If she disavows O’Donnell, she disses the NRA. In communities like Ashbourne Hills, where she has traditionally outperformed registration, that won’t help. If she supports O’Donnell, the keepers of the well-manicured lawns will desert her in droves.
I think they’ll say, “I’m a good republican and I support our party. This is no time to give the democrats free rein to raise our taxes.’ and I think that will play in all neighborhoods.
Delaware likes to keep 2 parties working.
1) Not in my neighborhood
2) Why shouldn’t a party know what its like to be unemployed?
Winners: delusional teabagginng nut bags everywhere
Losers: the people of Delaware who will have their political discourse dominated by delusional teabagging nutbags everywhere at least through 2012 ( The morning after she loses to Coons the campaigh agaist Carper will begin)
Loser: Gaffney.
Sussex overwhelmingly didn’t care about any of the stuff in his attack interview.
Winner: Colley. His head’s as big as his stomach now, but he sure backed a winner.
– another anon, not 3:44
Attack interview? LOL. Asking about why she lied (which she did), is not an attack. It is called asking a question. And if Christine can’t handle that she must do one of two things: drop out, or stop lying.
Nothing wrong with a good attack on a deserving victim. Gaffney was asking about the right topics, but he was over the top. It was a theatrical performance. I don’t think he’d interview St. Sarah the same way.
“Isn’t America awesome!?”. That’s from Evan q’s list of questions the media is allowed to ask O’Donnell or risk being banned from events.
Colley tweeted this earlier: “These big city media types are eating up my show prep time. Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post paid for my coffee at noon.”
I can’t wait to see how the chief nutbag ends up coming across in print!
“And, don’t forget, each and every one of these Rethugs will be asked if they’re supporting O’Donnell. They really don’t have an answer that won’t piss off some element of the Rethug Party”
…good idea
It is sad but every GOP candidate is facing a huge burden because of the GOP incompetence. Agreed no R challengers will prevail and those who hang on will be done dirty by reapportionment. Coons and Carney by double digits.
The only thing the GOP seems to be able to so is a special election now and then. Mr Pam Clark is going to be County Exec and if the GOP had a decent NCC presence, WTF is the NCC Chair? he or she needs a serious ass kicking and replacement.
Whoever can put the NCC Council President special election race together and win will be the next GOP chair.
Sooner or later the GOP needs to offer a message not carry out vendettas against those they deem unworthy.
Bo Biden is feeling real dumb, and it might be because he is dumb, just like his father.