Checking the Ground War in Brandywine Hundred
Took a drive through some communities in Brandywine Hundred today, from Claymont to the tony Perth and Pembrey developments. When it comes to signs, Bryon Short, Chris Coons and Mike Annone (a union electrician running against Bob Weiner) are the clear leaders, especially on peoples’ lawns. Judy Travis, who is challenging Short, is doing pretty well for a first-time candidate, but it’s tough to challenge the accumulation of sign locations that Short has built up as he runs for the third time.
As good a job as Coons is doing, Carney signs are virtually nowhere to be seen. Not even in his reputed stronghold area of Claymont. Big ups to the Coons campaign for their efforts, Carney had better get moving. If blue-collar communities like Ashbourne Hills and Radnor Green stay home en masse, D’s up and down the ticket could have a tough time. Very few signs for ANYone in Radnor Green/Ashbourne Hills, except for the very occasional Urquhart sign.
Senate candidate Chris Counihan has done a pretty good job with his sign program, especially for a first-timer, and appears to have more signs on lawns than incumbent Cathy Cloutier.
Cloutier’s signs are sometimes found on lawns with Mike Annone signs. The unions, particularly the construction trades, are pushing both candidates hard. I wonder how Cloutier ‘ally’ Bob Weiner feels about Cloutier and Annone running as a team. Maybe that’s why Weiner’s so actively grandstanding on the proposed Stoltz project. And, in typical Weiner fashion, blasting the very same rules and procedures that he aggressively sought to implement. Having said that, I don’t trust Annone at all. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s being funded by the same people and groups pushing the Stoltz project.
Kovach and Heffernan (running in RD 6) appear to be running close to even in their sign battle, at least along Marsh Road, Washington Street Extension and the southern part of Philadelphia Pike.
I can’t recall a single lawn that had either an O’Donnell or Urquhart sign that also had a Cloutier or Kovach sign. That would concern me if I were them b/c it could signal more down-ballot drop-off than usual.
Anyway, that’s my snapshot from the road.
What are you seeing where YOU live?
There isn’t much in terms of sign activity where I live, but I live in a low voting area of Wilmington so there traditionally isn’t much activity unless a few of us start it. We did have Robert Bovell being an asshole about his signs earlier, but they are mostly gone now.
One thing that I do watch are the signs on Rt 52, which is how I go to work each day. It isn’t clear to me if this is a real DelDOT ROW, but it is clear that the owners of properties adjacent to the road are picky about what gets up there. Before the primary, there was a Monday AM where there where Chip Flowers signs placed from Greenville to the PA line. About a week later, there was only one left. But right now, it is interesting to me that there is one sign for the guy who is running against Gerry Brady and there are a few signs here and there for the odious Colin Bonnini. NONE for O’Donnell or Urqhardt. And there are people here who put up the Really Big signs across their yards, too.
In my neighborhood, the staunch R’s have lots of Rhodunda signs up, a few Urquhart, and zero O’Donnell signs. None of the old Castle signs were replaced with O’Donnell signs. Even the people who had McCain-Palin signs up don’t have O’Donnell signs up.
Any Williams signs in the 10th?
Not many personal lawn signs. Some big signs are up by main roads, though.
Lots of Coons and Carney signs here… and a few Mike Castle signs. I haven’t seen one O’Donnell or Urquhart signs.
BTW, just answered a Bonini push poll. Subtlety is not his strong suit.
One of my coworkers just told me the Castle lawn signs in his neighborhood got replaced with Coons signs. There aren’t many signs at all in my neighborhood besides mine. One lawn that had a bunch of O’Donnell signs is now signless. Hmmmmm.
In the 14th – the battle rages – Schwartzkopf and Weeks signs are mostly everywhere – 4x8s, 4x4s, little ones… seems any public space a Schwartzkopf sign shows up – a Weeks sign follows.
In the press, Weeks seems to be following O’Donnell and the crazies pretty closely, in his words and actions (showing up at O’Donnell fundraisers and spending far to much time on the Colley show), and has spent very little time campaigning.
Reminder: signs don’t vote: people do. Count the yards without signs, and a truer picture can be seen….
(Usually signs just reflect the activity of one excitable volunteer in that district.)
anon3 – that’s why heads turned when Weeks showed up at the school board meeting last week. One person commented that there was an actual Weeks sighting. No one could figure out why he was there.
I did a survey around my neighbor (in western Newark) on Saturday. I found a couple of dozen Coons signs, and just one O’Donnell sign. There are a number of people displaying signs for other republican candidates, but just the one for O’Donnell. True its not a very good reflection of how the masses will vote, but I’d still rather be the guy with more signs.
Kavips,
I usually like your stuff, but “count the yards without signs”? When turnout is typically 30% of the electorate? Yards without signs are meaningless data.
Experienced politicians work really hard to convince voters to put signs in their yards. You can generally assume that a sign in a homeowner’s yard translates into 1-2 votes for that candidate. Exceptions: corner properties at high-traffic intersections, commercial properties and rental properties.
If excitable volunteers put signs in people’s yards, they’re generally removed.
Reply to rh: Yes. Both Williams and Rhodunda signs on properties along Shipley Road. Haven’t really had a chance to cruise neighborhoods in the 10th yet.
Signs help but Brandywine is now Brandywhine as in whiners.
What used to be the GOP stronghold is a shadow of what was.
Bottom lime, the guy in the most trouble is Weiner and Kovach. Weiner has worn out his welcome and Kovach got lucky in a special election.
All the Dems could win. The GOP GOTV is pretty sad.
I think the R in the most trouble is Cloutier. The registration numbers in her district are really daunting, much more daunting than 4 years ago when she barely edged Pat Morrison.
Kovach earned his win in the special election. I’d make him a slight favorite. I think Rhodunda may be a slight favorite, although the Castle loss could well keep a lot of normal R voters home this Nov.
Don’t know about Weiner. One can always hope.
Brandywine Pete’s right, though. The R organization is not as strong as it used to be. It’s tough to keep an organization together when you’re losing more races than you’ve ever been used to losing. I think Wayne Smith’s precipitous departure from the General Assembly has also done considerable damage.
John Atkins’ signs I think are pretty neat. It’s your basic yard sign size, but a little taller. Square. The extra space at the top is true political pandering. It’ll say a personable phrase like: State Employees, Golden Knight Fans (High School team), Veterans, etc..
For John Atkins
It’s quite impressive of an idea.
I see a lot of Short signs but many of them are on public property I see a lot more Travis signs up in people’s yards.
I was in Windy Hills shooting pictures the other day if signs mean anything (and I think they do) Kowalko OWNS that community. The highest value sign is one on a family lawn:)
The places I’m driving I don’t see any signals that O’Donnell or Urquhart are catching on. Perhaps it’s still early.
Saw several Short signs in Graylyn Crest, none (or maybe one) for Travis. Several Short signs in Perth, none for Travis. One Travis sign in Pembrey, none for Short. Short, of course, owns Arden. Saw several Short signs in Chatham, maybe one for Travis. Several Short signs on lawns on Marsh Road and Grubb Road, far outnnumbering Travis.
My experience is exactly the opposite of Occam’s. Most of Travis’ signs are near ROW. She’s actually doing a good job w/signs, considering. And I’m not carrying water for Short, believe me. But, his campaign has an excellent sign program going. So does Coons.
Haven’t yet made it to Foulk Woods, which would likely be hospitable to Travis, or Chalfonte, one of the district’s largest communities, so maybe Occam has simply been in different communities than I have.
BTW, was in Alapocas this afternoon. Several Carney signs there (also plenty for Coons). Not surprising, considering that John’s wife works at Wilmington Friends, and they have lotsa friends there. Not a single R sign in this upper-class community.
El Som,
No R signs in Alapocas.
Do you think O’Donnell and/or Urquhart have an organization savvy enough to go into traditional R strongholds and get votes? Or do you think they’re approaching traditional R’s and getting turned down?
Or do you think they have organizations in New Castle County at all?
This is the type of traditional R community, largely moderate, that O’Donnell and Urquhart have no chance of recapturing. These are the type of R’s who switched for Markell. They are R’s no longer–as they can’t relate to what the Republican Party has morphed into.
So is the O’Donnell-Urquhart plan to run up the margins in Kent-Sussex and hope NCCo doesn’t show up?
Brian – Atkins did the same thing 2 years ago.
I saw a frightening number of Karen Peterson and O’Donnell signs together in Harmony Woods.
On Sunday I was on Old Baltimore Pike west of Rte 896 in the 25th Rep District and saw more John Kowalko signs than for his opponent even though his opponent lives in a development off Old Baltimore Pike and State Rep Kowalko lives at the other end of the district.
On Elkton Road near Suburban Plaza Shopping Center, Louis Saindon, the Republican challenging State Sen Dave Sokola, has a sign. It is a big one , maybe 5 X 8. What is curious is that the sign is located several miles into State Sen Liane Sorenson’s district & is not in the district in which he is running . I guess he is going for commuters.
I’m over by St. Ed’s. I haven’t seen hide or hair from Short since the last time he ran. Travis door-knocked here a while back and yesterday I saw 2 Travis kids lit dropping my neighborhood. Mid-Monday. In the rain.
Brandywine Regional Democrats did get Short signs in all the union lawns early on and that was important but as far as I know he hasn’t done anything since. Travis took her sweet time deciding to start campaigning but now that that machine is up and running I see them doing a lot around here. As one seems to wax the other seems to wane.
MJ.. I lived in Seaford for the last election, so I wasn’t in the Millsboro/Long Neck area. Since moved in the no-man’s land between Georgetown and Lewes. I haven’t lived in a competitive district since moving to Delaware.
Occam, he’ll get there. BAD is lit dropping, & Short more than anyone… if you haven’t been hit yet, it’s because your voting category hasn’t hit top of the roster yet. I don’t know who designs the list, but it’s not a straight run through the neighborhoods yet. That comes closer to Nov, I guess.
However, if you want a sign, I can get you one. 😉 I’m at the stage now where everywhere I go someone asks me for one for someone, Coons is the favorite, but they’ll take 2 for downticket races, so I just have a car full.
I went to the Brandywine website but there really wasn’t anything there. Have you guys been up to help Williams at all?
Occam, Bryon and his campaign have been working very hard on the campaign since early summer. We have lit dropped every neighborhood near St. Eds so I am not sure why you did not receive something at your door. Bryon, family, and friends have door knocked on thousands of doors and have recently moved into canvassing your area. Bryon has attended every single civic association meeting that he is made aware of since he was elected in 2008 and attends multiple events in the district.
As for the signs, Brandywine Democrats did not deliver those and they are not union yards. The Short campaign has been working hard to call through all supporters and sign locations from 2008 and we have personally delivered them ourselves.
Bryon and his volunteers are working hard.
Delaware City: I’m not seeing any Chris Coons signs, even though I personally have requested some, and a few Muskrat Mama signs. Still a few Castle signs. Wagner, yes. After the primary, the Democrats came and removed signs at the polling place as required. The Republicans did not. However, they have been “appropriated” and will be put to good community use.