The Christine O’Donnell campaign has crashed. A new University of Delaware poll shows Chris Coons with a commanding lead over Christine O’Whackjob, 49% to 30%. And that is without leaners. When leaners are pressed to decide between the candidates, Coons wins 61 to 37.
In the same poll, John Carney is leading Glen Urquhart by nearly the same margin, 48% to 31%. Once we get a hold of the internals, we will get you a more detailed analysis. And the Fairleigh Dickinson poll of the Senate race is expected later today as well. Mmmmmm polling goodness.
UPDATE: The Poll internals are now available. (Warning PDF).
It is a good sample size (900 Delaware adults). However, the interviewing window is unusually large (two weeks, from September 16-30, 2010). The partisan breakdown reflects the demographics of the state, so idiots like Delbert should shut up. 24% Republican; 34% Democratic; 33% Independent. If anything, they undersampled Democrats.
Christine O’Whackjob is only getting 62% of the Republican vote, 7% of the Democratic vote, and 20% of the Independent vote. 18% of Republicans are definitely voting for Chris Coons, and that number may increase to 20% when leaners are pressed to decide. Christine’s vote share increases to 77% of the Republican vote with leaners allocated. So there are 17% of Republicans out there who dislike her, but still feel loyalty to the Party. Meanwhile, another 20% of the Republican vote say “Screw the party.”
Coons gets 77% of the Democratic vote and 39% of the Independent vote. When leaners are pressed to decide, Coons gets 92% of the Democratic vote (so much for that O’Donnell Dem phenomena Delbert speaks of) and shockingly 70% of the Independent vote. The key point of this poll: Independents hate Christine O’Donnell. With a passion. Without leaners, Coons wins the Independent vote 2 to 1. With leaners, he wins it by 42 points (70 to 28).
Moving over to the U.S. House race, Urquhart has the same problem as Christine: People do not like the evil racist 1850’s ideology that the Republican party subscribes to. Urqy gets 66% of the Republican vote, 6% of the Dems and 19% of the Indy vote. When leaners and undecideds are pressed, Urquhart gets 81% of the GOP vote, 8% of the Dem vote, and 42% of the Indy vote. So Urquhart does better among Independents than Christine, but he still loses them to Carney 58 to 42.
Carney wins 17% of the GOP, 77% of the Dems and 34% of the Independents. With undecideds and leaners,
Carney wins 19% of the Republican vote, 92% of the Democratic vote and 58% of the Independent vote.