The current Senate is comprised of 15 Democrats and 6 Republicans, represented by the map on the left. It is impossible for the Republicans to win back the Senate this year. There are 11 seats up for election. Democrats are defending 8 of the 11 seats. So you say to yourself, hey, it is possible for the GOP to win the five seats they need for the majority. Well, the problem is the GOP is not challenging Democratic Senators McDowell, Bunting and McBride. So, to win the majority, the GOP will have to defeat all five remaining Democrats, all the while they fight off the challenge to Cathy Cloutier in the 5th Senate District. I believe they will be successful in defending Cloutier’s seat in the 5th. And they will oust Nancy Cook in the 15th. But they will not be able to gain any more seats. Ennis is safe. The races against Blevins and Sokola will be competitive but the GOP will fall short. And Karen Peterson and Bruce Ennis are safe for reelection.
So the GOP will gain one seat, and the new Senate, represented by the map on the right, will be made up of 14 Democrats and 7 Republicans.
(5) CATHY CLOUTIER—Toss-up. This is the Democrats’ only opportunity to pick up a Senate seat this year. Bulo thinks that Christopher Counihan has run a good campaign and is poised to topple Cloutier in this Democratic district. I guess I have to see it to believe it. In a Democratic year, I think Counihan wins. In a Republican year, Cloutier once again hangs on by the skin of her teeth. In an anti-incumbent yet Republican year, it is a toss up and it comes down to turnout. But for now, I think Cloutier hangs on.
(7) PATTY BLEVINS—Lean Democratic. Former Congressional candidate Fred Cullis is the Majority Leader’s opponent this time around. She won with 73% in 2006. But Christine O’Donnell did pick up some votes in this district, and Fred Cullis might be competitive. I think Blevins wins though, as Cullis is not a strong candidate.
(8) DAVID SOKOLA—Lean Democratic. Sokola won in 2006 with 57% of the vote. His Republican challenger is Louis Saindon, “one of those cookie cutters from another Rethug front organization–Leadership Delaware.” Sokola should be able to win this race.
(9) KAREN PETERSON—Safe Democratic. Peterson’s opponent is Robert S. Johnston, who was the President of the Exton Chamber of Commerce. Exton, Pennsylvania. Besides living in Newark, Johnston is otherwise unknown in Delaware. Karen wins easily.
(14) BRUCE ENNIS—Safe Democratic. Ennis seems well suited for his district, but this will be his first race for reelection. His opponent, John Moritz, is a Townsend resident and the President of Delta Engineering Corp., an aeronautical engineering firm. Ennis wins easily.
(15) NANCY COOK—Toss up. And finally we come to the one race where I think the GOP has its best opportunity to pick up a Democratic Senate seat. The long time incumbent, Cook, 74, is the ultimate Dover insider. She opposes open government, so we progressives would not mind if she is bounced from office. Her opponent, Republican Dave Lawson He is a retired Delaware State Police lieutenant and current owner of the “Shooter’s Choice” gun store in Dover. He is a certified firearms instructor, teaching the course that applicants for a concealed-carry permit must pass. In this conservative district, in this Republican year, against a long term incumbent, Lawson will win. Good bye Cook.