El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You*
*Well, almost all. I have no clue about most down-ballot county-wide races in Kent or Sussex, so I’ll stay away.
Still, there should be more than enough controversy to allow you to chew on my not-insubstantial hide and spit it out.
U. S. Senate: Coons 62-38. Maybe big enough for a coattail effect. Don’t worry, Christine O’Donnell won’t go away. Attention whores never do.
U. S. Representative: Carney by a more modest margin, say 54-46. Urquhart’s shelf life will be shorter than O’Donnell’s.
Attorney General: Beaudhisatta, in what may be his last run for public office. BTW, FWIW, I LOVE the fact that he’s filing suit to challenge Minner’s sweetheart deal with the Tiganis. Everyone in the administration involved in that should be brought up on charges. A total violation of the public trust.The Feds should sniff around as well.
State Treasurer: Chip Flowers, 52-48. I think that ultimately both the registration edge and people finding out about Bonini will offset hard feelings left over from the primary.
State Auditor: Tom Wagner, 55-45. Dems blew a real opportunity here. No one of any substance stepped forward to challenge for what, under capable hands, could be a substantive office.
State Senate #1: Harris McDowell, D. After reapportionment, with Sen. Marshall’s retirement, this district could end up back entirely within the city limits.
State Senate #5: Chris Counihan, 53-47. Daunting registration numbers and a strong campaign by the challenger doom the incumbent. D Pickup.
State Senate #7: Patti Blevins, 60-40. Blevins could well now be vulnerable to a credible challenger. Fred Cullis is not that guy.
State Senate #8: Dave Sokola, 58-42. Not only is Dave a progressive, but people really like him. Saindon is a cookie-cutter Rethug fresh outta an R candidate training program masquerading as a ‘leadership’ not-for-profit. Sokola has vanquished far more daunting foes.
State Senate #9: Karen Peterson, 63-37. Whatever the ‘generic’ R and loony toon vote is, that’s what Robert Johnston will get.
State Senate #12: Dori Connor, R. This is a D district just waiting to happen once Dori retires. Both D’s and R’s love her, as do I. Were I drawing the Senate lines, and, assuming that the numbers remain stable, I’d draw Valerie Longhurst out of the district just to screw her, and leave the rest be. I’m vindictive like that.
State Senate #13: Dave McBride, D. Well, he actually lives in Lewes, but his district extends from Dunleith, which is just outside the Wilmington city limits, all the way to Bear. It also includes portions of Richardson Park and Newport, since McBride claimed they were his ‘roots’. Nobody was nearly as big a crybaby as McBride during the last reapportionment, and he basically got his way on everything. I sincerely hope he retires after one more two-year term. He’s long since stopped being the constituent service obsessive he used to be. If he does, Dunleith, Rosemont, and those areas along New Castle Avenue can perhaps be combined with portions of the city to create, if not another minority-majority district, a minority-influenced district.
State Senate #15: Robert Lawson, 52-48. Gene Mauch once said, “Sometimes you add by subtracting.” Should Lawson defeat long-time Keeper of the Purse-Strings, Nancy Cook, as I think he will, it won’t be a sea change, it’ll be a tsunami. Nancy Cook remains the single greatest impediment to open government in Dover. At the age of 74, the master of the inside game finds that she can no longer prevail when forced to actually campaign outside in her district. R Pickup.
State Senate #19: Joe Booth, R. Betcha the D’s run someone next time. Maybe Jim Westhoff will be in that district…
State Senate #20: George Bunting, D. I’ve always liked George Howard, and he’s a progressive at heart. He’s close to the end of his career, though. Time for the D’s to be scouting for a replacement.
State House #1: Dennis P. Williams, D. Assuming Williams runs for Mayor in 2012, as he currently intends, this district could, and probably will, look a lot different following reapportionment.
State House #2: Stephanie Bolden, D. To quote Tom Waits (talking about the beer he just bought): “This ain’t a purchase, it’s a rental.” While this will no doubt remain a minority-majority district following reapportionment, it will have to expand to deal with changing population demographics. I find it hard to believe that Bolden can keep a firm hold on this seat.
State House # 3: Helene Keeley, 65-35. Shame on Bail Bondsman Bovell and the Working Families Party for trying to agitate the black churches due to Keeley’s support for equal rights for all, including gays. I also think there’s at least a chance that Keeley gets her leadership position back.
State House #4: Gerald Brady, 60-40. The Billionaires On the Hill have generously bankrolled prepster Richard Carroll. The voters in the Flats, the 40 Acres, and the senior high-rises have seen it all before, and shrugged. Prediction: Carroll replaces Mike Brown (who does those pathetic ‘Shame on you, Chris Coons’ commercials) as the only Rethug on Wilmington City Council in 2012. If he doesn’t run for Mayor.
State House #5: Melanie George, D. Will be interesting to see what her barbell-shaped district looks like after reapportionment.
State House #6: Debra Heffernan, 53-47. This was always a D district temporarily in R control. Not really sure what more Kovach could do to hold on. Especially since he came up against by far one of the best new candidates running. With a bench as thin as the R bench, Kovach will have more electoral opportunities should he choose to take them. D Pickup.
State House #7: Bryon Short, 53-47. Judy Travis has run an excellent campaign. Too bad for her that it’s not the campaign she wanted to run in the 2007 Special Election to replace Wayne Smith. Smith’s pig-headed decision to stuff Jim Bowers down the Rethugs’ throats cost the R’s this seat. Oh, and the Short campaigns are always among the best around. Like Kovach, I expect Travis to be in the political mix in the future.
State House #8: Quin Johnson, 62-38. Not really much to say about this one. R’s don’t appear to be seriously contesting this race.
State House #9: Rebecca Walker, 52-48. I’d feel much more confident if I knew that she was campaigning harder than she did the last two times. Nevertheless, as an open seat with a strong D edge, it’s hers to lose. Since she basically horned in on the nomination, she’d better not lose it. D Pickup.
State House #10: Bob Rhodunda, 52-48. Could go either way. I just think that (a) the big D ED’s near Claymont will not come out to vote like they did for Obama; and (b) Dennis E. Williams never really established himself as the Rep. So, I think they’ll give Rhodunda a chance to run with the ball. It may not make any difference, though. District #10 could well reappear near Middletown or in eastern Sussex following reapportionment. R Pickup.
State House #11: Greg Lavelle, 53-47. I still think this could be an Upset Special, but I again think that the Claymont portions of this district will not turn out in sufficient numbers to ultimately turn the tide. Should this district survive as a Brandywine Hundred district, it will look a lot different after reapportionment.
State House #12: Debbie Hudson, R. She’ll continue to comfort the comfortable and afflict the afflicted.
State House #13: John Mitchell, D. Sure he faces enigmatic token opposition, but the opposition will be blue come Election Day.
State House #14: Pete Schwartzkopf, 58-42. If these two matched up in a different Sussex district, the results might be different.
State House #15: Valerie Longhurst, 61-39. In some ways, it’s admirable that James Van Houten openly disparages ‘Democratic control’ of the legislature. But, in a district with far more than twice the number of D’s as R’s, it’s not a roadmap to electoral victory.
State House #16: James Johnson, D. One of my favorite legislators. If you don’t know him, you should really take the time.
State House #17: Michael Mulrooney, D. A hard worker, and a favorite of leadership.
State House #18: Mike Barbieri, 53-47. Barbieri’s biggest problem is that he’s not a self-promoter. He is one of the best progressive legislators in Dover, and it’s a travesty that the Progressive Democrats of Delaware somehow failed to endorse him. Spence is running as if he’s the incumbent, which is really strange, since he’s blaming the State’s problems on the D’s who control the House. Regardless, the registration numbers are better than 3-1 D, and Barbieri is solid in the areas west of I-95. If D’s like Coons, Carney and Biden make sure that he gets the rub, he’ll prevail.
State House #19: Speaker Bob Gilligan, 62-38. Aside from maintaining control of the House, Gilligan’s chief election day concern will be to decide what kind of subs to drop off for the poll workers. Will he still be speaker come Returns Day? Stay tuned.
State House #20: Nick Manolakos, 58-42. Based on the financials, nothing to suggest that the D’s are strongly contesting this race. At least one of these districts along the northwestern perimeter of NCC will likely disappear following reapportionment.
State House #21: Michael Ramone, R. Pure political malpractice by the D’s in failing to challenge one of the General Assembly’s most vulnerable incumbents.
State House #22: Joe Miro, 56-44. Dave Ellis clearly has strong progressive ideas, but, again, the financials don’t suggest that this will be a close race. Still, it’s great to get candidates of this calibre to step up.
State House #23: Terry Schooley, 64-36. To paraphrase caustic film critic Pauline Kael, “Terry Schooley, doing to Bill Stritzinger what deserves to be done to Bill Stritzinger.” Bid goodbye to one of the most odious challengers of this cycle.
State House #24: Ed Osienski, 62-38. The safest ‘flip’ of the cycle, as Bill Oberle’s seat turns blue. D Pickup.
State House #25: John Kowalko, 61-39. Nothing to worry about this time, folks.
State House #26: John Viola, D. His challenger withdrew, giving this profoundly undistinguished legislator a free ride. Ironically, a member of his family was giving another legislator free rides, which led to his disgraced downfall. Have fun figuring that one out…
State House #27: Earl Jaques, 60-40. Nobody, nobody, has a better Voter ID program than Earl Jaques. They won’t be sweatin’ it this year.
State House #28: Bill ‘Lumpy’ Carson, 62-38. If forced to choose between Viola and Carson as the least distinguished D House member, I honestly couldn’t do it. But, in a district like this, running against an opponent with the toxic name of ‘Minner’, Lumpy will not be taking any lumps this November. Too bad.
State House #29: Lincoln Willis, 63-37. Once Chip Paradee decided not to run, this was the R’s seat to lose. In choosing auto sales magnate Lincoln Willis, they ensured that they wouldn’t lose it. Hard to battle someone who once had Dale Earnhardt stop by to sign autographs. R Hold-Empty Seat (Vacated by Pam Thornburg).
State House #30: Bill Outten, R. Amiable meter reader not even challenged by D’s.
State House #31: Darryl Scott, 52-48. This one’s not over yet, and Scott deserves your help. But Smith has recently been rejected by the voters (defeated for reelection to Kent County Levy Court in 2008), and he has the look and attitude of the career aparatchik that he is. Scott survives, with your help.
State House #32: Beth Miller, 62-38. This is why you recruit credible candidates. Under normal circumstances, against a well-funded and well-organized opponent with great name recognition, Beth Miller likely would have lost this cycle. But, when Brad “I Shoulda Kept It In My Man-Pants” Bennett self-destructed, the R’s had a perfectly acceptable alternative. R Pickup.
State House #33: Harold Peterman, 50.1-49.9. This race could well be decided by turnout, specifically those turning out on behalf of Crazy Christine. People who know Bob Walls like Bob Walls. But he is not a self-promoter, and, as a legislator, he’s a back-bencher. His calling-card is constituent service, which just might be enough. But I don’t think so in the Year of the Blue Snow. R Pickup.
State House #34: Donald Blakey, 61-39. D’s aren’t heavily contesting this one. Blakey works pretty well with the D’s.
State House #35: David Wilson, 56-44. Jim Westhoff has a big future in Delaware electoral politics if he wants it. I just can’t see it in this most conservative district in this most challenging year. Jim, have you ever considered running for…Insurance Commissioner?
State House #36: Harvey Kenton, 52-48. I’ve got many varying reports from the district. I’m basing this prediction more on a tilt in turnout to the crazies. Russ McCabe deserves to win, hope I’m wrong on this one. R Hold-Empty Seat (Vacated By George Carey).
State House #37: Ruth Briggs King, 54-46. An upset is not impossible, but less likely this particular year. Look for this signioficantly-gerrymandered district to look quite different after reapportionment. I hope and expect that Pete Schwartzkopf will be drawing most of the Sussex lines this time around.
State House #38: Gerald Hocker, R. Don’t really blame the D’s for not challenging the greengrocer. Maybe they cut a deal: No Bunting challenger for no Hocker challenger. Stuff like that’s been done before.
State House #39: Dan Short, R. Not the most difficult R to work with. Look for at least one of these western Sussex districts to disappear after reapportionment.
State House #40: Biff Lee, R. Yet another seat inherited by an undistinguished family member. Real name: Clifford. Like the dog, or to translate into Sussex County, ‘doag’ or ‘dogue’.
State House #41: John Atkins, 60-40. South-central Sussex County just loves themselves some ‘bad boy’. Here’s hoping he comes up with even more aliases when he ‘anonymously’ posts over here. Something to look forward to, at least.
Although I certainly didn’t plan it this way, in terms of numbers of D’s and R’s, both the Senate and House remain unchanged, although there would be two new Senators and (I think) nine new representatives in the mix.
Oh, and at the New Castle County level, Navarro, Poppiti, Weiner, and Kilpatrick are winners.
Hmm, wonder if anyone has any feedback to this one…
Tags: Election 2010
Sorry about the delay in opening up comments on this post. There must have been a glitch.
Some serious glitches with this post, as half of it disappeared. I think I got everything back.
Why did you stop at State House # 4?
I will update my maps in posts later afternoon, and will classify races as “Lean D” or “Lean R” But some first thoughts:
I think Cloutier survives, and Darryl Scott loses.
AQC, as I was flixing the glitch that closed the comments, I noticed half the post had disappeared. So then I had to fix that. It looks like El Som’s full post is back up again.
Thanks DD and I hope you are wrong about Scott.
ElS–Just on principle, I would like to poke holes in some of your calls, but I find that I wouldn’t argue with a one. Nice job.
It would be nice for Lavelle to win by only 6% against a last-minute challenger. This would show what thin ice he is on.
Nancy Cook out–OMG!
I think Nancy Cook is done too. I think the Flowers-Bonini race will be the closest race in the state. The party should focus their resources on that race. Coons, Carney and Biden have it locked up. Flowers needs all the help he can get. Bonini doesn’t deserve to be dog catcher.
In the 14th, Pete takes 61% of the vote. And Bunting is not a progressive, in his heart or his actions.
There’s no way Coons will get 60% of the statewide vote. He will lose in Sussex and probably Kent as well while holding Upper New Castle County. The margins in each will determine the race. CO’D will get between 44% and 48% of the vote. Nice try on Flowers. It’ll be just the opposite with Bonini collecting 52% of the vote. John Atkins will not get 60% of the vote. Probably between 53% and 56%.
No way COD pulls between 44 and 48%, her ceiling is about 42% given her unfavorables.
COD can’t get more than 41%. Flowers will win, but it will be a dog fight…
It’s be a real blow for COD to get only 42% against a relatively unknown opponent with 1/3 of the money she has. But that’s what’s going to happen. I’m sure she’ll blame the media or someone else for her loss.
Alway a free pass, McBride finance reports are for expenditures are interesting.
“U. S. Senate: Coons 62-38. Maybe big enough for a coattail effect…”
I have never believed the top of a ticket creates coattails. It’s local races,usually, One exception that comes to mind being Markell’s first run for Treasurer.
It’s funny how some are arguing over the margin of victory, when all the candidates probably care about is 50%+1. I mean, I’m sure they’d all like to win by 10-15 percentage points, but in a year like this, a win’s a win.
I’ll reiterate what I said before: Darryl Scott and Mike Barbieri are two representatives who definitely deserve support and help from this crowd. They’re the best kind of legislators — they take their jobs seriously and do it for the right reasons. I happen to disagree about Russ McCabe: his family has been in that area for generations and is well-known and well-liked. It’ll be close, but I think he can do it.
It’s the home stretch now, so everyone needs to do whatever they can to make this happen. No excuses, no second-guessing and what-ifs on November 3.
Oh no doubt she will blame the media and everyone else for her loss. My money is still on that it will be a big enough loss that she won’t show for Return Day-she’ll say she had too many interview requests to fulfill. Her base may be motivated to vote for her, but everyone else is really motivated to vote against her!
Straight scoop–I 100% agree–GOTV! My wishful thinking is that a huge loss would hurt her from being a candidate again….
I think there will be a Coons coattail effect. I’ve done canvassing and voters are definitely enthused about the Senate race, and don’t know much about the others but will probably vote Dem.
I also think there could be an O’Donnell coattail effect in Sussex Co.
Who is the “Responsible Delaware Pac”. I received a flyer today with Flowers picture on it saying, “If Chip Flowers is representing them….Who’s representing Us? “Chip Flowers represents companies who do business with the Treasurers office. Flowers said he will continue his lucrative law practice even while in office when elected. That may be a serious conflict of interest.
Flowers has a plan for the Treasurers office that will expand government and increase costs. As a lawyer, he represents companies that do business with the Treasurers office. Shouldnt the Treasurers office be our fiscal watchdog. Conflicts of Interst, Big spending plans. We need to clean up government not make it bigger. Call Chip Flowers and your state legislators and tell them we’ve had enough conflicts of interest and big government spending”?
I never heard of this PAC have you?
This is Bonini’s pac. He is the founder and largest contributor. The mailing is full of lies and falsehoods.
I’m not guessing percentages, especially for local races, it’s just pulling stuff out of the air. Where I disagree….
I think the COD margin will be closer – but it all depends on how well the D’s do at pulling out the base. I’m not convinced that the effort is strong statewide. This is an overarching problem I see for the rest of the down ballot races. In their defense, the momentum just isn’t there.
I think Bonini gets the most votes statewide than any other R, for sure. I think he beats Flowers.
I think Nancy Cook pulls that race out, though it will be close.
I think Rebecca Walker wins by a much larger margin than you predicted. She’s got a really good ground game and some excellent mail pieces. Her opponent is a joke and makes Richard Korn look like he lived in Delaware all his life. She walks with that race and that’s the firewall that keeps the House in D control, IMO.
I agree more or less with the rest… especially your gut on the margins for Carney and that Bennett loses.
I say again however, it’s a weird, weird year and people need to get out to vote. If you don’t, they will.
Yes, it is Bonono’s PAC. They’re also doing robocalls. Which Bonono has a habit of doing in his campaigns. And from what I understand, the robocalls over the years usually cite false information.
There will also be a strong D vote in the 14th for Pete and the rest of the D ticket, which might off-set some of COD’s “coattails.”
Great run down El Som. I only noticed your personal feelings busting through the wall of journalistic objectivity like a giant Kool Aid pitcher on meth a couple of times. Zero “WTF’s?” and only one “Hmmm…Really?”
All part of my new-found maturity, Jason.
BTW, thanks to whoever dealt with the glitches while I was at work. I had checked the published article, and had no idea that there were gremlins afoot.
JTF: You really think Bonini will get more votes than Wagner? I’d like to lay some shekels on that one.
For the statewide races:
Coons 62-38 sounds good to me and if he does win by 20+ he should have coattails, especially if Carney can win solidly as well. If people vote overwhelmingly Democratic three consecutive times at the top of the ticket that will greatly benefit Chip Flowers, who is in the most competitive statewide race, and even Richard Korn could have an outside shot at finishing in the 46-47% range if there is a coattail effect.
Carney 57-43. Urq has probably peaked.
Biden 70-30.
Flowers 52-48. This would be enough to give Bonini a launching pad to challenge Denn for Lt. Gov. in 2012.
Wagner 58-42. Korn ran a lackluster primary campaign based on overconfidence and that will come back to haunt him. He basically has done no advertising other than billboards–he barely has any small signs and zero big ones. Combine all of this with Wagner’s relative popularity and I see Wagner winning easily. Korn never had a strong chance but had he run a better campaign he could have given Wagner a scare.
Great post. I will have to come back and dig in when I have more time.
Some people need to focus on themselves and their own shortcomings rather than everyone else in this state whether R or D.
Doesn’t Andy Statton (current Leadership Delaware Fellow) run the campaign for Pete Schwartzkopf? He is definitely not a RETHUG…
The 32nd District race is actually a 3-way. If you’ve given up on your own guy, I’d suggest taking a look at another candidate who is against discrimination, against civil rights violations, against war, and against government interference in your personal life.
/shameless self promotion
Great work, ‘Bulo! I think you’ve hit most of these head-on. I look forward to comparing these on election night.