The current House district map, on the left, consists of 24 Democrats representing the blue districts above and 17 Republicans, representing the red. If the election were held today, the Republicans would net just 1 seat in the House, bringing the party breakdown to 23 Democrats and 18 Republicans. The new House map, before redistricting that is, is on the right.
Republicans will pickup the 10th (Rhodunda over Williams), 31st (Smith over Scott), 32nd (Miller over Bennett), and 33rd (Peterman over Walls) districts. The Republicans will also retain the open seats in the 29th (Willis over McClutchan) and the 36th (Kenton over McCabe). However, Democrats will pickup three Republican seats: the 6th (Heffernan over Kovach), the 9th (Walker over Marino), the 24th (Osienski over Jones). Democrats will also fend off strong challenges in the 7th (Short over Travis), 18th (Barbieri over Spence) and in the good ole 41st (Atkins over Hastings).
Check out El Som’s predictions here. He thinks the House will stay the same, with some different pickups and retentions than I have.
Below are the competitive races in more detail. Those races were the incumbent is considered safe are excluded.
(6) TOM KOVACH—Lean Democratic Kovach won a low turnout December 2008 special election, when Democrats were hungover from a landslide victory at all levels of government the prior month. He won by 73 votes. Kovach has a bright future ahead of him in the GOP. He will be the new Mike Castle. The moderate that will lead the party back from the horrid O’Donnell abyss. But he will not be the Representative of the overwhelmingly Democratic 6th District. He will lose to Brandywine School Board President Debra Heffernan.
(7) BRYON SHORT—Tossup. Short won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2008. Now he faces Republican Judith Travis, who garnered recognition for her Stockings for Soldiers campaign. Travis is running a good campaign in a Republican year in a trending Democratic district. Short has a good enough ground game to eek this one out. So while this is a toss up, he will hang on.
(9) OPEN—Lean Democratic. This district has been trending Democratic over the last two election cycles. Rebecca Walker is back again after losing to Cathcart in 2008 and 2006. John Marino, a state police officer is the Cathcart-picked Republican.
(10) DENNIS E. WILLIAMS—Lean Republican. The other Dennis Williams barely won with 50.4% over longtime Representative Bob Valihura in 2008, helped no doubt by the presence of President Obama on the ballot. In 2010, this “Naamans Road District” is the Republicans’ best pickup opportunity this fall. While Valihura is not running again, Robert Rhodunda, an Administration Manager of the Actuarial Department of the American Life Insurance Company and a former Treasurer of the Council of Civic Organizations of Brandywine Hundred, is. So Rhodunda appears to have a good resume for a candidate in the Brandywine Hundred (hey, if it worked for Lavelle). I expect Williams to lose.
(14) PETER SCHWARTZKOPF—Lean Democratic. The Majority Leader faces Teabagger candidate Christopher Weeks, a Eric Bodenweiser associate. Schwartzkopf will win, but I downgraded this seat from Safe to Lean just because of the Christine O’Donnell mania in Sussex County.
(18) MICHAEL BARBIERI—Tossup. This is a must win seat for the GOP. Barbieri defeated Republican Speaker Terry Spence on his second attempt in 2008, and the defeated Speaker is back for revenge. Registration wise, this district is 3-1 Democratic, so Barbieri should have the edge, but the question is how much he was helped by the Obama turnout in 2008. I predict Barbieri will hang on, because, for some odd reason, in an anti-incumbent year, the establishment Spence decided to run as an incumbent, coupled with Coons-mania in New Castle County (volunteers have and will be working the ground game hard for the whole ticket).
(22) JOSEPH MIRO— Miro won reelection with 66% of the vote in 2008. This year, he is challenged by David Ellis. I rank this race as a Lean Republican because I am intrigued by and impressed with Ellis, a true progressive. I think Miro will hold on in a Republican year. But Ellis should run again in 2012. .
(24) OPEN —Lean Democratic. When Oberle retired, this became a rare pick up opportunity for the Democrats in a Republican year. This district is much like the 18th in party registration, with the Democrats having a 2 to 1 advantage over Republicans and Independents. Ed Osienski, (D) faces special education teacher Abraham Jones in the general election.
(27) EARL JAQUES—Lean Democratic. Jaques faces off against Republican Jay Galloway. As I said in the summer, Jaques’ reelection depends on what McGlinchey and his labor minion do after their primary challenger loses. Would they support Galloway? They aren’t. Jaques will win.
(29) OPEN—Lean Republican. The district demographics favor the Democrats, but this is a conservative district and I would expect, out of the four GOP retirements, that the GOP would be favored to retain this seat. Republicans Lincoln Willis, of Lincoln Willis Chevrolet in Middletown is the GOP nominee. The Democrat is James McCutchan, a teacher with the Delaware Division For the Visually Impaired. Willis will win easily.
(31) DARRYL SCOTT—Toss up. Scott forcibly retired double dipper Nancy Wagner in 2008, winning with 53% of the vote. Wagner is not running again. Attorney Ron Smith won a close GOP primary. Bulo thinks Scott can win with good turnout. I think the odds favor Smith, and if I had to pick, Smith would win and this would be a pickup.
(32) BRAD BENNETT—Lean Republican.. Bennett’s alleged DUI finished him. Goodbye. Welcome Representative Beth Miller.
(33) ROBERT WALLS—Toss-up. Walls was first elected in 2006, and he was reelected in 2008 with 54%. The GOP has Harold “Jack” Peterman as their candidate. I have no read on this race, but Bulo thinks the election will be decided by turnout, specifically those turning out on behalf of Crazy Christine. “People who know Bob Walls like Bob Walls. But he is not a self-promoter, and, as a legislator, he’s a back-bencher. His calling-card is constituent service, which just might be enough.” But then again, this an R year in a conservative district. If I had to guess, Peterman will win and this will be a Republican pickup.
(35) DAVE WILSON—Lean Republican. We got a great progressive candidate in Jim Westhoff, but I don’t think he will break through in a tough year in a conservative district. I predict Westhoff runs again in 2 years, or for higher office in the state.
(36) OPEN—Toss-up. Harvey Kenton v. Russ McCabe. This race will come down to the wire, and I unfortunately think O’Donnell mania in Sussex will be the deciding factor here, pushing Republican Harvey Kenton, who is deep in the development community’s pockets, over the finish line.
(37) RUTH BRIGGS KINGLean Republican. The incumbent, Ruth Briggs King, won the seat in the domino-effect aftermath of Thurman Adams’ death, which led to the election of Rep. Joe Booth to the Senate, which opened up the 37th for a special election that Briggs King won with 53%. The Democrat, Ron Robinson, ran a good campaign, and I was hoping he would seek a rematch in a higher turnout election, but alas, he did not file. Instead, we have Democrat Frank Shade, who was president for many years of the Pumpkin Chunkin Association, so that gives name recognition in the community at least. In any other year, this would be a toss up and a close one. But I think Briggs King has the edge this year.
(41) JOHN ATKINSLean Democratic. Hastings is making a race of it, but Atkins will win. I look forward to our election night pseudo-phone call, John. If anyone doesn’t know that story, perhaps I will tell it in the comments. It’s funny. OH NO! I just realized that I will be downstate on Election night at the Lewes HQ. What are the chances?