Election Predictions Thread
Here is a thread to put your election predictions. Everyone’s been playing pundit, but here’s some helpful predictions: “El Somnabulo Predicts ‘Em All For You”, “The DE Senate [2010] – Two Weeks Out” and “The DE House [2010] – 2 Weeks Out” from Delaware Dem. Ron Williams also makes his predictions.
Here are the races:
Federal offices
U.S. Senate
Chris Coons (D)vs. Christine O’Donnell (R) vs. Glenn Miller (I) – Independence Party of Delaware vs. James Rash (I) – Libertarian Party
U.S. House
John Carney (D) vs. Glen Urquhart (R) vs. Earl Lofland (I) – IPOD vs. Brent Wangen (I) – Libertarian vs. Jeffrey Brown (I) – Blue Enigma Party
My predictions:
Coons 56%, O’Donnell 43%, others 1%
Carney 54%, Urquhart 45%, others 1%
Statewide offices
Attorney General
Beau Biden (D) vs. Doug Campbell (I) – IPOD
State Treasurer
Chip Flowers (D) vs. Colin Bonini (R)
Auditor of Accounts
Richard Korn (D) vs. Tom Wagner (R)
My predictions:
AG- Beau Biden 85%, Doug Campbell 15%
State Treasurer: Flowers 49%, Colin Bonini 51%
Auditor: Korn 45%, Wagner 55%
State Senate
SD-1 Harris McDowell (D)
SD-5 Christopher Counihan (D) vs. Cathy Cloutier (R)
SD-7 Patricia Blevins (D) vs. Fred Cullis (R)
SD-8 Dave Sokola (D)vs. Louis Saindon (R)
SD-9 Karen Peterson (D) vs. Robert Johnson (R)
SD-12 Dori Connor (R)
SD-13 David McBride (D)
SD-14 Bruce Ennis (D) vs. John Moritz (R)
SD-15 Nancy Cook (D) vs. John Lawson (R)
SD-19 Joe Booth (R)
SD-20 George Bunting (D)
My predictions are marked with bold.
Most everyone agrees that the SD-15 race is probably the most interesting one. I guess I’ll lean to a Cook retain because I think we’re going to have a Democratic night.
State House of Representatives
RD-01 Dennis P. Williams (D)
RD-02 Stephanie Bolden (D)
RD-03 Helene Keeley (D) vs. Robert Bovell (I) – Working Families Party
RD-04 Gerald Brady (D) vs. Richard Carroll (R)
RD-05 Melanie George (D)
RD-06 Debra Heffernan (D) vs. Tom Kovach (R) vs. Matthew Flebbe (I) – Libertarian
RD-07 Bryon Short (D) vs. Judith Travis (R) vs. Scott Gesty (I) – IPOD & Libertarian
RD-08 Quin Johnson (D) vs. Kathleen Rokosz
RD-09 Rebecca Walker (D) vs. John Marino (R)
RD-10 Dennis E. Williams (D) vs. Robert Rhodunda (R)
RD-11 Josh Schoenberg (D) vs. Greg Lavelle (R)
RD-12 Deborah Hudson (R) vs. James Christina (I) – Libertarian
RD-13 John Mitchell (D) vs. Jeffrey Brown (I) – Blue Enigma
Yes, it’s same Jeffrey Brown who’s also running for U.S. House of Representatives, nifty trick.
RD-14 Pete Schwartzkopf (D) vs. Christopher Weeks (R)
RD-15 Valerie Longhurst (D) vs. James van Houten (R) vs. George Barnett (I) – Libertarian
RD-16 J.J. Johnson (D)
RD-17 Mike Mulrooney (D)
RD-18 Mike Barbieri (D) vs. Terry Spence (R)
RD-19 Bob Gilligan (D) vs. Vincent Ruff (R)
RD-20 Francis Swift (D) vs. Nick Manolakos (R)
RD-21 Mike Ramone (R)
RD-22 Dave Ellis (D) vs. Joe Miro (R)
RD-23 Terri Schooley (D) vs. William Stritzinger (R)
RD-24 Ed Osienski (D) vs. Abe Jones (R)
RD-25 John Kowalko (D) vs. Gordon Winegar (R)
RD-26 John Viola (D)
RD-27 Earl Jaques (D) vs. Jay Galloway (R)
RD-28 William Carson (D) vs. Karen Minner (R)
RD-29 John McCutchan (D) vs. Lincoln Willis (R)
RD-30 Bobby Outten (R)
RD-31 Darryl Scott (D) vs. Ron Smith (R)
RD-32 Brad Bennett (D) vs. Beth Miller (R)
RD-33 Robert Walls (D) vs. Harold Peterman (R)
RD-34 Jill Fuchs (D) vs. Donald Blakey (R) vs. Jonathan Marango (I) – IPOD vs. Michael Tedesco (I)
RD-35 Jim Westhoff (D) vs. David Wilson (R)
RD-36 Russell McCabe (D) vs. Harvey Kenton (R)
RD-37 Frank Shade (D) vs. Ruth Briggs King (R)
RD-38 Gerald Hocker (R)
RD-39 Daniel Short (R)
RD-40 Biff Lee (R)
RD-41 John Atkins (D) vs. Greg Hastings (R)
Predicted winners are in bold.
Counting up the predictions the Senate will stay at the same D/R split and in the House I see turnovers in RD-06 (Heffernan replaces Kovach), RD-09 (Walker – Cathcart open seat) and RD-24 (Osienski – Oberle open seat) for the Democrats and turnovers in RD-30 (Smith replaces Scott) and RD-32 (Miller replaces Bennett). That means D+1 in the House.
So, what are your predictions?
Tags: Delaware, Election 2010
Sarah Palin – President
Glenn Beck – VP
Christine O’Donnell – Minister of the office of American affairs
Sharon Angle – Minister of Public Relations
Rand Paul – Education secretary
Joe Miller – secretary of constitutional re-education
This is my heart speaking (predicting):
O’Donnell doesn’t break 40%
Flowers squeezes by Bonini
Counihan squeezes by Cloutier
My prediction is that win or lose, Christine O’Donnell supporters will feel dirty on Wednesday, and will need extra soap in their baths.
Westhoff squeaks by Wilson.
Coons by 16
Carney by 8
Wagner by 10
Bonini by 4
Atkins by 14
Schwartzkopf by 20
State House stays the same numerically. Maybe Rs pick up one overall.
I predict Erin Grey will win Dancing With the Stars.
I meant Jennifer Grey.
Peterman wins by 300 votes in the 33rd.
Wilson vs. Westhoff race is going to be close. But I still have to believe Wilson is going to pull it off…
Rels, you are truly a genius.
Wonder if Castle’s stumping for Rick Carroll will make a difference? I tend to think it will if for nothing more than a sympathy vote for Castle.
Coons 58% O’Donnell 39% Others 3%
Carney 54% Urquhart 45% Others 1%
Biden 75% Not Biden 25%
Flowers 50.5% Bonini 49.5 (and he won’t show up to concede)
Wagner 55% Korn 45%
Downticket:
I agree with UI with the following exceptions.
Kovach wins and becomes the only “Good Republican”
Hastings beats Atkins.
And the story of the night will be how close Josh Schoenberg comes to unseating Greg Lavelle with only 2 months of campaigning.
Coons 55% – Christine 45%
Carney 52% – Urq 48%
Bonini 52% – Chip 48%
Wagner 53% – Kornhole 47%
Biden 66% – Anti-Biden & Protest Vote 34%
Coons 58-41
Carney 53-46
Flowers 51-49
Wagner 55-45
Biden 76-24
Nationally
Republicans pick up 56 in the House
Democrats keep the Senate with 51 seats.
Teabaggers claim they have a mandate.
Government accomplishes nothing in the next two years because of gridlock.
The RSmity take-it-home list:
Coons 52%, O’Donnell 46%, other 2%
Carney 51%, Urquhart 47%, other 2% (wait…did I just predict GU out-does CO?)
AG- Biden 78%, Campbell 22%
Treasurer: Flowers 50%+, Bonini 49%+ (yup, I said that)
Auditor: Korn 43%, Wagner 57%
SD-5 Christopher Counihan 48%, Cathy Cloutier 52%
SD-7 Patricia Blevins 57%, Fred Cullis 43%
SD-8 Dave Sokola 65% vs. Louis Saindon 35%
SD-9 Karen Peterson bajillion%, Robert Johnson token%
SD-14 Bruce Ennis 67% vs. John Moritz 33%
SD-15 Nancy Cook 49% vs. John Lawson 51% (maybe wishful, but I think she’s done)
(This amounts to a net 1 seat R gain)
RD-03 Helene Keeley gazillion% vs. Robert Bovell <20%
RD-04 Gerald Brady 53% vs. Richard Carroll 47%
RD-06 Debra Heffernan 49% vs. Tom Kovach 49% vs. Matthew Flebbe 2% (counting on the incumbent bump to give the actual voter count edge to Kovach…two strong candidates, but in a DEM-favored district – likely to turn out to be the closest of Rep races)
RD-07 Bryon Short 52% vs. Judith Travis 46% vs. Scott Gesty 2%
RD-08 Quin Johnson 55% vs. Kathleen Rokosz 45% (closest race in that seat ever since located in lower NCCo)
RD-09 Rebecca Walker (D) vs. John Marino (R) *under sealed-envelope, lock-and-key with 'Geek…plus there is a beer riding on this one*
RD-10 Dennis E. Williams 49% vs. Robert Rhodunda 51%
RD-11 Josh Schoenberg 42% vs. Greg Lavelle 58% (have heard that people like Josh and that he's a good guy, but good people can still get plastered, too)
RD-12 Deborah Hudson mongojillion% vs. James Christina < 20%
RD-13 John Mitchell is-this-a-race% vs. Jeffrey Brown the-only-enigma-is-his-candidacy%
RD-14 Pete Schwartzkopf 59% vs. Christopher Weeks 41% (it's Eastern Sussex – only a PRAGMATIC Republican will stand a chance against Pete)
RD-15 Valerie Longhurst 63% vs. James van Houten 35% vs. George Barnett 2% (I may still be too kind to van Houten here)
RD-18 Mike Barbieri 49% vs. Terry Spence 51% (I hate agreeing with Ron Williams, but Terry found his feet and walked with them this time around)
RD-19 Bob Gilligan infinillion% vs. Vincent Ruff 60% vs. Abe Jones 60% vs. Gordon Winegar 49% vs. Harold Peterman <51% (challenges RD6 to be the closest of the night)
RD-34 Jill Fuchs 42% vs. Donald Blakey 56% vs. Jonathan Marango 1% vs. Michael Tedesco 1%
RD-34 Jill Fuchs 42% vs. Donald Blakey 56% vs. Jonathan Marango 1% vs. Michael Tedesco 1%
RD-35 Jim Westhoff 49% vs. David Wilson 51% (unless Wilson just poops it away)
RD-36 Russell McCabe 49% vs. Harvey Kenton 51% (Sussex GOP bump)
RD-37 Frank Shade 47% vs. Ruth Briggs King 53%
RD-41 John Atkins 54% vs. Greg Hastings 46% (another enigma at play in this race)
I concede some of these are heartfelt and not as in-depth as others in this list, but my gut feeling is our state house ends up 21-20…just not 100% who is 21 or 20.
Big formatting error between RD19 and RD34 (probably usage of greater-than, less-than signs), so here is that section again:
RD-19 Bob Gilligan infinillion% vs. Vincent Ruff less-than 20%
RD-20 Francis Swift 38% vs. Nick Manolakos 62%
RD-22 Dave Ellis 48% vs. Joe Miro 52%
RD-23 Terri Schooley 67% vs. William Stritzinger 33%
RD-24 Ed Osienski greater-than 60% vs. Abe Jones less-than 40%
RD-25 John Kowalko greater-than 60% vs. Gordon Winegar less-than 40%
RD-27 Earl Jaques 53% vs. Jay Galloway 47%
RD-28 William Carson 51% vs. Karen Minner 49%
RD-29 John McCutchan 47% vs. Lincoln Willis 53%
RD-31 Darryl Scott 49% vs. Ron Smith 51%
RD-32 Brad Bennett 47% vs. Beth Miller 53%
RD-33 Robert Walls greater-than 49% vs. Harold Peterman less-than 51% (challenges RD6 to be the closest of the night)
RD-34 Jill Fuchs 42% vs. Donald Blakey 56% vs. Jonathan Marango 1% vs. Michael Tedesco 1%