‘Bulo’s Picks: The Good…And the Veryvery Bad
All in all, a very good night for my crystal ball. Only three incorrect calls. However, of the three, two were embarrassingly off the mark. Let’s try to figure out why:
State Senate 5: I had Chris Counihan edging Cathy Cloutier, and Cathy breezed to reelection. Why? I think that she projects empathy and sincerity, and it’s genuine. Chris was the ‘vision guy’ in this race, but I think Cathy was able to at least give voters the sense that she understood and felt their pain. I think voters preferred that over a ‘policy wonk’ candidacy this year. People who campaigned with Chris at the doors said that he struggled to make that personal connection. I looked at the race four years ago and at the daunting registration numbers and saw a Counihan victory. I was wrong.
Rep. District 10: Dennis E. Williams defeated Bob Rhodunda by a fairly comfortable margin. Why was I wrong? First, I think the ‘Christine’ factor discouraged R turnout in this moderate R district. Second, Rhodunda had even less charisma than Dennis and had a sort-of funereal personality, far less than an ideal candidate. Third, he was not a long-term incumbent with a long-term incumbent’s resources or name recognition. Finally, Dennis E. roused himself to put himself out there, which was probably more difficult than it sounds. He’s a good progressive vote, I hope he becomes a good progressive legislator.
Rep. District 32: I had Brad Bennett, he of the DUI and marital infidelity infamy, going down (in the political sense) big to Beth Miller. Uh, he won. For our Kent County readers, please tell me how I screwed this up so royally. Me, I can only hazard these guesses. First, he came out and owned up to his problems. People forgive much more readily when you don’t try to cover something up. Second, this is a solid D district, and Bennett had one of the best grassroots organizations of 2008. Third, maybe, just maybe, Beth Miller wasn’t a very good candidate. That’s the best I can do. Can someone help me here?
There were far more pluses than minuses in my predictions, and modesty does not prevent me from citing the most prescient of them:
1. Chip Flowers wins the Treasurer’s race. Again, a big tip of the sombrero to Christine O’Donnell, and to Colin Bonini for allowing his inner smarm to surface. The voters got this one right.
2. Nancy Cook loses. Just watch, though, someone will hire her as a ‘consultant’ to deal with budgetary matters. My bet: Governor Markell. Wouldn’t shock me if he’s already made the call.
3. Debra Heffernan wins. To paraphrase former Phils’ manager Danny Ozark, this was a ‘cliff-dweller’ most of the night. I think she’ll be a shining light in Dover, and Kovach’s political career is far from finished should he choose to continue. Again, thank you, Christine O’Donnell.
4. Rebecca Walker wins. And by just about the 52%-48% margin I predicted. Depending on how this district looks after reapportionment, she is not a sure-shot for reelection if she doesn’t do her job. And I have my doubts that she will.
5. Mike Barbieri wins. By a slightly more comfortable margin than I had anticipated. The House D’s clearly knew what they were doing by rallying around Mike the last weekend. This should be the end of the line for Terry Spence. Big win for the progressive cause!
6. Ed Osienski wins. As I predicted, by a comfortable margin.
7. Earl Jaques wins. Told’ja you needn’t worry about him as he possesses the best Voter ID operation out there. Obsessiveness pays dividends in politics.
8. Darryl Scott wins. By a larger margin than I expected. The 31st and 32nd are now clearly solid D districts and, to the extent that the population figures permit, probably should have similar boundaries following reapportionment. The general rule of thumb is, the less change in a district’s boundaries, the more preferable to the incumbent. Even if the district becomes slightly ‘safer’ by adding more voters of their party, the incumbent has more people who don’t know them, which actually makes them more vulnerable, especially to a primary challenge.
9. Bob Walls loses. A statistical loss as Walls just couldn’t overcome the Christine Crazies in this district.
10. Harvey Kenton beats Russ McCabe. The Christine Crazies likely had an effect here. McCabe could run again, and in a more hospitable district, two years hence. Plus, there’s always the State Senate…next time, get a haircut!
I’ve got a lot of thoughts about reapportionment, how the districts could/should look two years hence, and what it could mean for the political landscape.
For now, however, over and out.
Tags: Election 2010
When else – anywhere – has a state voted out all three of its sheriffs?
Democrat Wood ousts Higdon in Kent and Republican Christopher unseats Swanson in Sussex after Navarro beat Walsh in NCC primary.
Bennett and Cloutier are similar in that voters are not voting according to left/right dynamics. They are voting according to who called them when their father passed away.
I was a bit surprised too on the margin of Bennett/Miller. Oh well, Adkins can have a drinking buddy now. Then maybe cruise for hot babes. In the legislative offices.
Belinsky…
First, I do not understand having the Sheriff be an elected position, just like I do not understand have all the ROW offices elected, or having the Insurance Commissioner, Treasurer and AG elected. I can understand having an Auditor being elected as a check on the Executive. But having these positions filled by election and not appointment allows for incompetents to be elected to fill important offices, like Karen Weldin Stewart.
Second, the Sheriff does not do what we think Sheriffs do.
Third, Cecil County, Maryland turns out their sheriff every four years it seems.
Barbieri had a very strong team and ground game. We worked very hard on our GOTV plan and the results show.
I wish Tom Kovach had run against Harris McDowell for the senate instead of remaining in the house race. Kovach has a bright future. He’s the kind of politician Delaware likes — personable, approachable, moderate.
That’s a real good thought A.M.
Rest up Tom!!!!!
AQC-You guys kicked butt! In so doing, you have aided the progressive cause. We owe you and the volunteers our thanks.
One fly in the ointment to AM & JC’s scenario: It’s quite possible that Kovach won’t be in Harris’ senate district following reapportionment. Since Sen. Marshall is retiring, I wouldn’t be surprised if Harris’ district and Margaret Rose Henry’s district were both entirely in the city limits next time.
Probably his best chance would be if he’s in Katz’ district. Although that district will probably be more hospitable to a Democrat following the redrawing of lines.
How about the slaughtering Dave Wilson put on his opponent after you trashed him? (70.3% of the vote) Apparently the voters think very highly of him.
in BH…
Short was a lock…heard he has a campaign machine
thought Heffernan had a good shot…favorable district, good candidate & a another strong campaign operation from what I was told…great job by her…
Williams was a pleasant surprise…and as noted above he won by a comfortable (700+ vote) margin…good job by him as well
Delbert, you really are a tool. Wilson put out a phony robocall against Westhoff raising an issue that wasn’t an issue (“ask my opponent about his military service and his teaching career”) as if something nefarious happened in Jim’s past. It was a bullshit move. But we get to redraw the district lines, and we will take our retribution on Wilson.
Delbert: Saying that Dave Wilson voters ‘think highly’ of anybody or anything is giving too much credit to Dave Wilson voters. ‘Thinking highly’ is beyond their capabilities.
While Westhoff was likely a fish out of water in this most conservative of districts, the water was polluted, probably with chicken shit. Which is what Wilson voters have been fed for decades. And, they LIKE it.
I’m with you…I thought Cloutier was very vulnerable…close race in 2006…long term incumbent in a D district..she clearly has an appeal that is tough to deal with
I wish the Dems in Dover would support independent redistricting. The whole idea that people like MJ express is part of the very problem with this country, and is one of the few places where both the Dems and the Republicans fail in equal measure to benefit the people. Reapportionment shouldn’t be about retribution or making it easier for Dems to get elected. It should be about what is best for the voters, and making it so that their representatives can serve them the most efficiently and effectively, which is not done by chopping up neighborhoods, or having ridiculous lines drawn, such as down the middle of Main St. to separate either side into different districts. We should stop the cycle, and show we are the bigger party. Unfortunately, we won’t, because we have too many people in Dover who are more concerned with getting reelected than with doing what’s right. (The same problem is evident in the Dems opposition to fusion ballots.) Maybe one day we will reclaim our ideals. (But then again, I think I remember this site attacking Dennis Kucinich for that very reason, that he stuck to his ideals too much and was therefore “ineffective.”) Oh well, I can always hope.
Dogbert: I think you will see a ‘clean’ reapportionment this time. The only way that Wayne Smith could even have hoped to have maintained an R House majority in a state with a D registration edge was to chop up neighborhoods and draw Picasso-esque districts. His plan really didn’t comport with the benchmarks and standards for reapportionment, but the D’s simply let it go. The D’s don’t have to do this, and I don’t expect that they will. You will still have some narcissistic wannabe legislator crying about being ‘cut out’ of a district b/c so-and-so’s afraid of them. Sometimes, it may even be true.
OTOH, the last Senate plan did not break up a single neighborhood or development. We were instructed to keep them together and, although at times it was a little difficult to adhere to b/c of other standards, we did it.
Having said that, there will be some odd-shaped districts if, for no other reasons, than Delaware has some odd nooks and crannies along its border. Colorado or the Dakotas we are not.
I plan to write quite a bit about reapportionment in the upcoming months, so I look forward to everybody’s opinion on the process. Keep the issues coming, Dogbert. I think it’s fascinating stuff.
Dogbert, there is no such thing as independent redistricting.
Anybody who knows enough about the neighborhoods and communties of the state to draw a decent map are either partisan R’s or partisan D’s.
The only tweek that I think would help would be to establish a range of acceptable area/perrimeter ratios. This would limit the crazy shape districts.
Question for El Som: After redistricting next year, isn’t EVERYONE up for election in 2012? House, Senate, county council, levy court? Everyone except the countywide elected officials (since their districts didn’t change) and statewide electeds (ditto)?
Sorry Dogbert, but having been on the “losing” end of gerrymandering a number of years ago in CO, I’m all about preserving a Democratic majority, even if it means taking out a few rethuglicans along the way.