All in all, a very good night for my crystal ball. Only three incorrect calls. However, of the three, two were embarrassingly off the mark. Let’s try to figure out why:
State Senate 5: I had Chris Counihan edging Cathy Cloutier, and Cathy breezed to reelection. Why? I think that she projects empathy and sincerity, and it’s genuine. Chris was the ‘vision guy’ in this race, but I think Cathy was able to at least give voters the sense that she understood and felt their pain. I think voters preferred that over a ‘policy wonk’ candidacy this year. People who campaigned with Chris at the doors said that he struggled to make that personal connection. I looked at the race four years ago and at the daunting registration numbers and saw a Counihan victory. I was wrong.
Rep. District 10: Dennis E. Williams defeated Bob Rhodunda by a fairly comfortable margin. Why was I wrong? First, I think the ‘Christine’ factor discouraged R turnout in this moderate R district. Second, Rhodunda had even less charisma than Dennis and had a sort-of funereal personality, far less than an ideal candidate. Third, he was not a long-term incumbent with a long-term incumbent’s resources or name recognition. Finally, Dennis E. roused himself to put himself out there, which was probably more difficult than it sounds. He’s a good progressive vote, I hope he becomes a good progressive legislator.
Rep. District 32: I had Brad Bennett, he of the DUI and marital infidelity infamy, going down (in the political sense) big to Beth Miller. Uh, he won. For our Kent County readers, please tell me how I screwed this up so royally. Me, I can only hazard these guesses. First, he came out and owned up to his problems. People forgive much more readily when you don’t try to cover something up. Second, this is a solid D district, and Bennett had one of the best grassroots organizations of 2008. Third, maybe, just maybe, Beth Miller wasn’t a very good candidate. That’s the best I can do. Can someone help me here?
There were far more pluses than minuses in my predictions, and modesty does not prevent me from citing the most prescient of them:
1. Chip Flowers wins the Treasurer’s race. Again, a big tip of the sombrero to Christine O’Donnell, and to Colin Bonini for allowing his inner smarm to surface. The voters got this one right.
2. Nancy Cook loses. Just watch, though, someone will hire her as a ‘consultant’ to deal with budgetary matters. My bet: Governor Markell. Wouldn’t shock me if he’s already made the call.
3. Debra Heffernan wins. To paraphrase former Phils’ manager Danny Ozark, this was a ‘cliff-dweller’ most of the night. I think she’ll be a shining light in Dover, and Kovach’s political career is far from finished should he choose to continue. Again, thank you, Christine O’Donnell.
4. Rebecca Walker wins. And by just about the 52%-48% margin I predicted. Depending on how this district looks after reapportionment, she is not a sure-shot for reelection if she doesn’t do her job. And I have my doubts that she will.
5. Mike Barbieri wins. By a slightly more comfortable margin than I had anticipated. The House D’s clearly knew what they were doing by rallying around Mike the last weekend. This should be the end of the line for Terry Spence. Big win for the progressive cause!
6. Ed Osienski wins. As I predicted, by a comfortable margin.
7. Earl Jaques wins. Told’ja you needn’t worry about him as he possesses the best Voter ID operation out there. Obsessiveness pays dividends in politics.
8. Darryl Scott wins. By a larger margin than I expected. The 31st and 32nd are now clearly solid D districts and, to the extent that the population figures permit, probably should have similar boundaries following reapportionment. The general rule of thumb is, the less change in a district’s boundaries, the more preferable to the incumbent. Even if the district becomes slightly ‘safer’ by adding more voters of their party, the incumbent has more people who don’t know them, which actually makes them more vulnerable, especially to a primary challenge.
9. Bob Walls loses. A statistical loss as Walls just couldn’t overcome the Christine Crazies in this district.
10. Harvey Kenton beats Russ McCabe. The Christine Crazies likely had an effect here. McCabe could run again, and in a more hospitable district, two years hence. Plus, there’s always the State Senate…next time, get a haircut!
I’ve got a lot of thoughts about reapportionment, how the districts could/should look two years hence, and what it could mean for the political landscape.
For now, however, over and out.