What It All Means – Locally
Despite Anonone’s adnomitions to the contrary, how can you not view these Delaware results as nothing more than the complete and total destruction of the Delaware Republican Party? In a Republican tsunami year nationally where the Democrats are getting creamed nearly everywhere, the Delaware Republican Party lost the following:
* A near certain pickup of the State Treasurer’s race. At the beginning of the year, when I heard Bonini was going to run for the Treasurer’s job, I figured the GOP would win this race easily. Bonini is an amiable enough guy on the surface, until you dig deeper and realize this guy has done nothing but collect paychecks for NO work for decades. I thought he was a shoo-in.
* The U.S. Senate seat, once held by Vice President Biden. This seat was a GOP lock, and it would have been a very symbolic repudiation of the Vice President if the GOP had won it last night with Mike Castle. But the racist teabaggers in all their uneducated ignorant might defeated Castle due to his daring to compromise on a few issues and due to his wanting to govern responsibily and work with Democrats to do so.
* The U.S. House seat. Now, I think once Castle decided to seek a promotion to the Senate, this seat was going to be in Democratic hands no matter what. Even if the teabaggers did not defeat Rollins. Indeed, imagine if Rollins had been the candidate. First, she is a horrible retail candidate, worse than John Carney in delivery and style. Second, her service on the board of Wilimington Trust, whose sale to a Buffalo, NY bank was announced on Monday, would have doomed any chance for her to win. So this seat was going to go Democratic. Still, it smarts for the GOP to lose Castle’s old seat since 1992. And without Castle now, and in a non-Republican year like 2012, how does the GOP win this seat back? And with who??
* The Delaware House. The GOP entered this year hoping, and almost expecting, to win back control of the state House, or at the very least make significant gains. Instead, they lost 2 seats. Only one vulnerable Democrat, Bob Walls, went down to defeat, while Dennis E. Williams in Brandywine and Daryll Scott and Brad Bennett, both in Kent County, survived. Meanwhile, a rising star in the DE GOP, Tom Kovach, lost. Democrats Rebecca Walker and Ed Osienski won two long held Republican open seats. Democrats have regained their supermajority in the House that they lost with the special elections in late 2008 and 2009.
* The Delaware Senate. Control of the upper chamber was never a realistic goal, though the GOP had hoped to make Blevins and Ennis sweat a little more than they did. Still, the Senate is probably the only bright spot for the GOP tonight, as they successfully defended Cathy Cloutier, again, from a serious challenge, again. And they knocked off Nancy Cook, a long time (too long actually) Democratic incumbent from Kenton. Progressives in the Democratic party are not sad to see her go, so this is a bright spot for us too. However, the GOP is still a 2-1 minority in the Senate, with the Democrats leading the chamber 14-7.
* State Auditor. Well, they actually won this, but even this victory must taste bitter. How can Wagner almost lose in a Republican year? Wagner barely BARELY beat back Richard Korn. Now, Richard Korn is a friend of mine, and a great guy, but I never thought he stood a chance to win. I thought he would go down to defeat by at least 10 points or more. And yet, in this supposedly Republican year, Tom Wagner wins by only the slimmest of margins. That makes him incredibly weak, and this will probably be his last term as a result. And yet he is the only Republican left statewide. Horrible.
Going forward, the lesson the GOP should learn from this night is that the Greenville establishment actually does have the party’s best interests at heart. They are the ones that know how to win in Delaware. What the racist teabaggers failed to realize is that their bullshit does not play up here in New Castle County. You have to be a moderate, and you have to be winning to compromise and work for solutions while in Washington for you to win in New Castle County and in growing parts of Kent County. And unless you win there, you cannot win a statewide general election.
The teabaggers can always win a GOP primary, as they have shown, and I hope they continue to win GOP primaries going forward. But if you are a reasonable moderate Republican in this state, they cannot win another election if you want your party to ever win a statewide election again.
Great analysis. The Greenville Republicans also have THEIR own interests at heart, which led to some of the ‘under-the radar’ stuff that might be investigated. Was there a CRI-Bonini link on the state employees’ mailing list? That’s serious business and MUST be investigated. Were the mysterious mailers emanating from Charlie Copeland’s never-ending fount of political largesse?
It’s not ‘old news’ if it hasn’t been covered, so either what passes for the media and/or state and federal authorities should, especially in the case of the Bonini letter. That one really smells to me, and should not be dropped.
“When your opponent is drowning, throw the son of a bitch an anvil.”
James Carville
If Obomba had followed that advice, we would not be looking at an America hemorrhaging red this morning. While I think that your analysis is excellent, my point is that we can’t become complacent. We need to hold the elected D’s to their promises, support them when they deliver, and primary the poor performers, like Beau Biden.
I think both Flowers and Korn did better than I expected. It’s sad to see Korn lose by such a small margin, but he did a really great job. The Democrat (besides Cook) that performed worse than I expected was Rebecca Walker, but she still won. I think Flowers, Walker and Heffernan should be thanking Coons & Carney for the coattail effect.
In my humble outsider opinion:
Coons–just an incredible public servant who deserves to be where he is
Carney–Coattails (but I’m open) and Consolation
Flowers–Very hard work and the El Som WDEL interview/expose’
Korn–Sensationalistic grenade thrower at the 11th hour, who didn’t deserve the jump he got
Navarro–a plan, a name, and lots of good will
I think I agree with all of that Joanne, although I do believe Carney will be a good representative and I am not as critical of Korn as you.
And now the down side:
Delaware wins Coons, NCC inherits Clark.
El Som–could we have a little “paved paradise, and put up a parking lot” music for the masses?
Really, EVERYONE needs to shine the disinfectant of sunlight on whatever Paul and Pam concoct.
Hope the County has a real good whistleblower protection statute.
BTW, we’re real good at protecting whistleblowers here. Our tipline is always open.
UI, I can’t speak about Becky’s race, but I think Chip and Deb won on running seriously badass ground games. They’ve been working their asses off. They earned their seats. 🙂
So, DD, if the message to the R’s is that moderation wins at the polls, is the message to the D’s that, too? 😉
ElSom. I might just say “Cloutier” at random intervals for a while, lol. 😀
Oh, and guess who was standing in the cold at Brandywine High School, late last night, holding a Cloutier sign? Liane Sorenson.
Heragain…
No honest person can ever describe Chris Coons and John Carney as far left liberals. They are not blue dogs either. They are pragmatists, and these days, being a pragmatist makes you a moderate, on both sides of the aisle.
That’s what I say, DD.
I once had a chance to support an honest to heaven freaking left wing D in a local race. He was SO damn inspiring. Made me tear up when he spoke.
But my judgement was I couldn’t get him a win in the district, as it existed. Hurt. It was a loss to the state, in my opinion, that we couldn’t get him to Dover. And it hurts to know you’re right, but not to get the support even of people who agree with you.
As a personality, I don’t like incremental progress. I like radical change. I’m just a mixer. 😀 But I’m not willing to let the R’s run things because my neighbors aren’t like that. I guess it means I’m old, but I’ll settle for half a loaf and go for jam later. 🙁
Heragain…
It really is a race by race, candidate by candidate, district by district judgment call when it comes evaluating a candidate’s chance of success.
And it also comes down to communicating the message. Paul Wellstone was probably the most liberal Senator in my adult lifetime, and he would still be there today but for his death. Minnesota is a moderate to left leaning state, but a state that elects Republicans. And yet Wellstone was able to win there. Because he communicated.
So your dream candidate might stand a chance, depending on the circumstances.
With all due respect to Walker, to whom I felt married to yesterday given the frequency we ended up next to each other yesterday at various polling locations, I think there were some coattails here, but also some of her own effort. John Marino knocked himself senseless going door-to-door and had tremendous feedback throughout. Yesterday at Loss, though, I did get feedback (in general) quite a few times that in another year, John gets the vote, but not this year with the poison in the air. It is noteworthy that the Loss polls (ED 6) was Becky’s shot to victory.
On that note, F*ck You Christine O’Donnell.
Well, she is up again in 2012 and John will be well advised to run again.
To add to my prev comment, just look at Olive Loss for RD9 (ED6) on all races. The D’s just crushed the R’s there. Common theme: O’Donnell’s impact on the air of the race. I was there for five of the 13 hours yesterday. That message was Lather-Rinse-Repeat.
Ah, DD…thing is though, NCCo below the canal is going to look quite different (likely so, anyway) for 2012. RD8 and 9 are the two largest RDs in the state and by quite a bit. Even if only a wedge of another district from the north or south, there probably will be a third district piercing into that (my) area.
Yeah, probably. Not to mention that your area is also becoming more Democratic every year demographically and through party registration. Still, he should run.
It’s actually more independent than I think you realize, regardless of the D-numbers. You see this among the attitudes when interacting. I really think you’d get that sentiment if you have a chance to talk about it with QJ, BW, or even BHL. Obviously, there is strong D-support and I don’t deny that, but the right mindset from a candidate, R or D, could swing it down here. It also makes me wonder if the obligatory bone(s) that are thrown with redistricting (the feable attempts to avoid the appearance of malintent) might be seen down here. The north and east sides around Middletown and Odessa have the higher R and I numbers and they are clustered enough that I come up with this scenario. Then again, it also could present the perfect carve-em-up scenario in slicing that into three different layouts. Time will tell. Obviously, my pessimism is raging.
I agree with Smitty that these areas are more independent than the numbers would indicate. Quinn Johnson spends as much time, if not more, at Chamber of Commerce events than he does at Union events.
That being said, the thing that allowed him to win by 25+ pts is that he’s is the hardest working man in show biz. He is everywhere. Retail politics and shaking hands wins down here which is why Marino came so close despite the anti-O’donnell coattails AND Becky’s name recognition. No matter what shape the 8/9 gets carved into, if she wants her seat in 2012, she needs to show up the next two years.
There’s virtually no doubt that one more district will be added in the Middletown area following reapportionment, most likely from the northwest portion of New Castle County.
Now, how it’s carved up is anyone’s guess. But I really doubt that they’d create an R-leaning district for Marino. Not after they get rid of a solid R seat in the Greenville, Centreville, NW Brandywine Hundred, Hockessin-ish area.
Plus, the registration #’s make it almost impossible to craft a sturdy R district down there.
First, I owe LiberalGeek an apology. I’m sorry. Please forgive me for a month and a half of harrassment and not trusting your judgement. You, too, jason.
Second, Smitty is right: F*CK YOU CHRISTINE O’DONNELL!!!
We need a new state motto.
I propose:
“Delaware – the mouse with fully functioning human brains”
I propose:
F*CK YOU CHRISTINE O’DONNELL!!!
How about–Delaware–the State that stabilized the Nation.
Thank you Chris Coons!!!!!
Anon2 – Apology accepted.
I think those O’Donnell coattails thing is being overplayed. The dems won because they had a far superior GOTV effort. It was won on the ground as campaigns should be.
John Marino had Cathcart’s machine and he still lost. Cathcart was on all of his mailers. Cathcart lost this race as much as Marino did. This guy wasn’t just coming out of nowhere. And the Dems didn’t even go after him for the pretty serious problems in his background, and they still won.
There appears to be a lot of blameshifting and revisionist history being written about what happened yesterday. This is generally what losers do. The GOP can’t even get their shining star Kovach elected, is the bench so shallow that John Marino of the New York Marinos is really your next great hope?
You can’t blame Christine O’Donnell for the fact that you didn’t get enough of your people to the polls. For all of this talk about being so tough, you guys tend to be such little whiners when you lose. Put you man pants on and own your defeat.
geek – I don’t apologize to you. As a matter of fact, when you buy me that beer, I propose that you actually apologize to ME (no, not like Christine O’Donnell expects an apology from the voters) for the sheer impact you had in kicking me in the nuts yesterday.
I will buy you a beer, but I want to be clear that it is a sympathy beer. By accepting the beer, you are accepting defeat.
Dude, I accepted defeat when I logged onto this blame-Nemski (new catch phrase) site last night to find solace…AND I FOUND IT! Holy Backasswardsville, I found you! That acknowledgement does not in any way preclude the beer.
Mmm…beer.
Now, how it’s carved up is anyone’s guess. But I really doubt that they’d create an R-leaning district for Marino. Not after they get rid of a solid R seat in the Greenville, Cenreville, NW Brandywine Hundred, Hockessin-ish area.
Plus, the registration #’s make it almost impossible to craft a sturdy R district down there.
Technically, I wasn’t saying they create it for Marino, although a nice thought 🙂 . My thought was moreso on how some areas down there, in spite of the registration, have typically resulted more in republican favor over the last few cycles. Those areas, though, as I mentioned already, are contained to the north and northeast of Middletown. I did say east of Odessa before, but that really has been a better D draw, but sometimes close to even. The independent numbers there can not be ignored, they really do hold sway. If you look at an RD9 map, I am speaking of EDs 2, 5, 7, 8, and 10 as the ones that have shown more R leaning. 1, 4, 6, and 9 are solid D (although 9 is getting a little close to even), but 3 is the biggie and the one that can get close to even a few times.
My point is, one of the D’s down there may end up getting screwed if they try to carve up that swath too much. My belief is that Becky, currently in the southeast side of RD9, loses the current ED6, which is significant to her for support. That little prize will land in the lap of one of three, probably: QJohnson, Longhurst, or Jacques. Using last night as an example, without ED6, she would have lost by about the same margin as she actually won. If they try to draw for her lasting support, but without screwing her or Lumpy, who is to her south, she’d almost have to get some kind of east-of-M’town configuration without getting slapped too hard from the existing EDs 5 and 7, unless they take decent chunks away from QJ to balance it. If QJ gets whacked a little for that, then he likely picks up the spoils from current EDs 2, 8, and 10, which could be trouble in the not-as-long-term.
There are so many possibilities at play, of course, but this is one example of why I also considered that this could be one of obligatory “bones” that gets tossed for the sake of trying to look like you’re not gaming the system completely. In my thought, Becky gets a more-or-less east-west configuration, but including some of that area that is east/southeast of Odessa, but also including Townsend. Quinn gets M’town like he has now, up 301/896 and possibly the real D prize that is currently ED6 (of RD9). The remainder then becomes that “bone” which really is no boon for R’s, but it takes away that area that has been perplexing RD9-D’s, such as Jason330, for years and bundles it up nicely. Like I said, it’s no lock for the R’s, but the mappers can point to history and say it’s held R results for some time now, so there you go, one of the “bones” is created.
Lastly and FTR, El Som, I know you have more knowledge in this than me, but I like to talk about stuff like this. It’s high-analytics which is interesting to me.
When it comes to your home area, I’m not in the same league as you or Geek.
One of the challenges that D’s face in reapportionment is precisely the fact that they presumably have to satisfy something like 27 or 28 incumbents.
I remember former R rep Jane Maroney, at a time when the R’s had an edge in the House like what the D’s have now, saying, “There’s something to be said for having FEWER members in your caucus.”
Trust me, if you want to see alleged adults act like spoiled children, hearing them whine during reapportionment will more than satisfy your fix.
Independent adjusters baby!!!
El Som…in your experience/knowledge, when does this dance of the damned typically begin? It might be worth the time to figure out a “Reapportion your area” contest to see how close the politicos end up, compared to the constituency. Obviously for fun and at a great cost of personal time, but it could be something.