2012 election could pit Obama vs. Palin

Here is a kos post by brooklynbadboy, which lays out what we all know.

– Obama will be the Democratic nominee.
– Palin will be the GOP’s nominee.
– As absurd as it seems, Palin could win.

Nevertheless, it is a worth going over all of this once more.

The presidential election season of 2012 will soon begin. Back in early 2007, there were quite a few candidates on both sides of the aisle seeking the presidency. Because of the unpopular incumbent, Democrats were likely headed towards a win no matter who was their nominee. But the epic primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton was more than a tough, hard-fought contest. It also energized the Democratic Party across the board, forcing both candidates to run campaigns in every state and building up the Democratic coalition that won big in 2008. But this next cycle is likely to play out differently. An incumbent president is very difficult to defeat. Each of the president’s notable challengers have to overcome significant problems to even have a shot at beating Obama.

The 2012 primary election cycle is not likely to be as dramatic as the last, barring some unforeseen drastic reshaping of the landscape. At least, not on the Democratic side. President Obama will easily secure the Democratic nomination, even if he is challenged for it. There don’t appear to be any Democrats who have the stature to do it, but if there were a challenge, it would likely be from the right. There is the possibility of a national conservadem like Evan Bayh using a rightward campaign to weaken the president. I have no doubt this challenge would be beat back, but a presidential primary campaign by the likes of Bayh would definitely find corporate benefactors. Of course, the media will gladly play it up as a challenge from the “center.” Obama could appoint Bayh or some of the other potential conservadems to high office in order to remove potential threats. From the left, there isn’t anyone who would be able to make a success of it. Gov. Jerry Brown of California could do it, but it is doubtful he would. Unions and minority voters are very likely to stick with the president. A challenge from the left can’t succeed without those voting blocs. So, barring a serious miscalculation from a conservadem, President Obama will coast to an uncompetitive convention.

On the Republican side, the field is wide open. Of the current field of potential GOP nominees, I predict none of them will beat President Obama, and a few of them will get crushed. Gingrich, Pawlenty, Thune, Pence, Barbour, Santorum, and others would be seriously biting off more than they can chew. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, I predict the most potent of the campaigners will be Sarah Palin. If she runs, I predict she will win the GOP nomination.

This brings sarcastic guffaws to political observers, of course. You’ll hear the usual listings of all her various weaknesses: She isn’t intelligent. She doesn’t have the leadership skills to run a national campaign. She isn’t disciplined. She’s erratic. All of these things are irrelevant in a Republican primary. If Sarah Palin is able to put together a campaign and win in Iowa, who is going to stop her? Mike Huckabee proved in 2008 that he could win the evangelical Republican base in the Midwest with a shoestring budget and plenty of moxie. Palin will not have a shoestring budget. In fact, her online, small-donor fundraising is likely to be as impressive as the famed Obama campaign of 2007-2008. I’m sure a potential Palin campaign saw how skillfully the Obama operation drove the narrative by posting those big, broad quarterly fundraising numbers. Palin could do just that same. If Palin can win over the Republican base and come out of Iowa strong, she could skip New Hampshire and head straight to South Carolina to put this thing in the bag. South Carolina’s new Republican governor, Nikki Haley, will play a big role if Palin comes out of Iowa with fire. All the campaign apparatus and policy speeches will certainly come later. Obama proved you can overcome the “experience” and “seriousness” hurdle with a good staff and some effort. I have no doubt she can clear those with ease. Her challenge remains with the broader electorate in a general election and this is where the tough scrutiny, combined with the heavy pressure of an incumbent president, will begin to take its toll on her.

And that brings us to Mitt Romney. Poor Mitt. Romney has got to be one of the weakest Republican frontrunners, since, well…McCain. He’s a failed candidate who lost because he didn’t convince the right he was a true believer. Now, if Romney couldn’t beat an unprincipled, untrusted McCain, or an unknown, low-budget Huckabee, how is he going to beat a well-funded, nationally known true believer like Palin? Anyone who runs against Romney is going to stamp “Obamacare” on his forehead and there is no getting out of it. Romney could try and outflank an evangelical megachurcher like Palin with culture warrior stuff, but does anyone believe they’re going to trust a Mormon over one of their own? Especially one who has been all over the place on abortion? The one thing Romney has going for him is the support of Wall Street and Big Oil. But with the neocons lining up behind Palin, the money boys are not going put up much of a fight with the necons if it is clear Palin is holding all the cards. They’ll deal before they go down for Romney. With Tea Partiers, Neocons and evangelicals naturally aligning for Palin, the path for Romney to win will have to involve tearing her down. He couldn’t do it to Huckabee after investing $50 million of his own money and years of effort in Iowa. His position hasn’t improved since then.

So this brings us to the likely matchup, Obama v. Palin. Again, contrary to popular belief, Obama could lose this race. If the economy does not recover and the president does not reconnect himself to base Democratic values, the election could look much like 2010: dispirited Democratic-leaning independent voters simply stay home while the Republican base turns out in record numbers. If the economy is tough (as is likely), the voters could still be in a “throw the bums out” mood that it is tough for the incumbent to overcome. However, as Kos has pointed out, there is a model for how Obama can win an election vs. Palin even if unemployment is at 10 percent: run like Harry Reid did in Nevada. Go home to your base. Define your opponent with a relentless, withering attack. Stand by your accomplishments and do not give an inch. To sum it up, no cowering, defensive, “let me explain” moments. And no “let’s all come together” kumbayaism either. Offensive attacks from day one all the way to November. That is the way to win.