Prognosticating the Palin Possibility
538’s Nate Silver reexamines Sarah Palin’s chances at locking up the Teapublican nomination in 2012. A year ago, Silver thought Palin might have a credible chance. Silver looks at ten different areas that could effect a possible nomination from enthusiasm, the right-wing tilt of the GOP, and the mainstream media cheering on her candidacy among others.
Silver also brings up a truth that might hurt Palin and surprise the O’Donnell supporters in Delaware:
In particular, it should be alarming to her how quickly some figures in the Republican establishment have turned against her. It is probably not a coincidence that these attacks began to escalate shortly after this November’s elections, in which Republicans were perceived as having sacrificed several Senate seats, like in Delaware and Nevada, because of having nominated unelectable candidates.
I keep thinking if she decides to run she can win the nomination – Mainly because of the primary/caucus schedule. She could build momentum in Iowa, skip New Hampshire, and win again in South Carolina. She would claim front runner status, which is a powerful perception.
Her base is fanatical about her so every single one of them will turn out to vote, and the press would love, love, love to have her as the Republican nominee so I would expect a lot of soft ball questions and endless articles during the primary season. She’d suck all the oxygen out of the room and away from the other candidates.
Basically, her chances for the nomination rest in the hands of the MSM. I can easily imagine them building her up in order to win the primary and then knocking her down once she does.
We’ll see pandora. I agree she has a clear path to the nomination but it looks like the GOP establishment has turned their guns on her. I think they might be too late but she does seem to have lost popularity within the GOP. It will all depend on how fanatical her base really is. Is it Palin or else, or will they accept Huckabee, Pence or Gingrich instead? Also, once Palin becomes frontrunner there will be a more sustained effort to bring her down. I really think that Huckabee is the favorite for the nomination right now.
Anything she does will be motivated by lining her pockets with money. As long as there is book deal or a tv deal in it, then she will do it.
Excellent point, P18. So… how does she keep lining her pockets? By staying in the spotlight which running for President guarantees.
I agree with U. I. Huckabee would have the edge if he gets in. Palin has the passion. Huckabee has the likeablity and if it is between her and him, all of a sudden the majority of the establishment types will rediscover him. 75% to 80% of the party likes him. If he gets in, he will be the default choice. Romney is good, but the tea party will never accpet his health care plan in MA. Backing him throws it to Palin. Gingrich is the best idea man, but the women have a hard time with him. That leaving the wife with cancer stuff. He could be the dark horse. Mitch Daniels hurt himself with that crazy truce talk. He has to walk that back or he is gone in IA, and SC. Haley Barbour is a competent, decent governer but his insider lobbyist days hurt him with the tea party and having to explain comments on the citizen councils reminds people of Macca. It seems like the only one who has a solid base among evangelicals and the broader electorate is the guy who served 10 years as a very competent governor. Mike Huckabee can win IA. Romney wins NH. Second would be important. Huckabee won’t ignore the NV caucus this time. SC is Huckabee territory, but the popular new governor is a Palin girl. If Palin wins SC in a close race with Huckabee second, FL will be the battleground. The anti-Palin forces will have to decide who is their person. Huckabee has a very strong base there. Jeb Bush will not back Palin. Will he get involved? Will Rubio back Mama? I think he will. Bush backs Huck and Rubio backs Palin. All of a sudden, all of the establishment types realize that if they don’t stop her in FL she runs the table. They see Huck can win in November and they swallow hard and write the checks.
Who wins that faceoff? Tune in.
That is the scenario that I see.
I would expect a lot of soft ball questions
Palin has a bit of trouble with those. She can create a gaffe out of anything.
Obama’s chances for 2012 hinge on the economy. So if two more years of trickle-down Bushonomics fail to somehow create jobs, Obama is screwed. In that (very likely) scenario, nobody will be voting “for” the GOP candidate – the election will be a referendum on Obama.
In the 2012 election, GOP extremism, no matter how wacky us “smart” people think it is, will not be a deterrent to digruntled voters looking for a change.
Therefore, since voters will be voting R no matter who it is, my advice to Repubs is to nominate the most extreme candidate you can find, and win on the anti-Obama/unemployment vote.
Christine O’Donnell is a better public speaker than Palin.
Folks, we can’t let Alaska outshine us when we have a gem like COD.
Palin will never run. Like Obama, or any other political office-holder wannabe, it’s easy to throw stones and proselytize with one’s rhetoric while on the campaign trail. Governing and having responsibility is a whole other thing.
She’s found a niche market to peddle her brand while making millions for her and her family. Anyone can toss out some prosaic tweet or conceitful FaceBook diatribe. Imagine if she actually had to move away from Fox News b/c of her choice to run? She’d be devoured. She’d try the Christine O’Donnell appeal-to-motive-association-fallacy-argument-ad-populem subterfuge to shift blame away from herself. She quit after two years as governor. She bashes the MSM at every corner; her last two ghost-written tomes meretriciously attack all whom she disagrees with.
I think everyone is discounting the damage that will be done to the Republican party between now and the election. The 9/12 patriots are really the driving force of hate and the snake in the grass for the rep. party.
The tea baggers are not a movement, it is a marketing machine that is heavily financed. It is the 9/12 traitors who are the real pack of wingnuts. Who have no chance of influencing anyone.
Where were the crowds for the Tea Party Express when they came to DE for COD? The few locals that did show up were the 9/12 traitors, but most of the people were the tea party express themselves. And the 9/12 traitors are just the Libertarians Redux.
COD never drew a crowd. And she didn’t draw local money. Looking at the votes, she drew the contingent who always voted against Biden. And maybe a few extra who are angry about the economy.
Without the constant barrage by fox, the wingnuts would not have a media platform.
I could run against Carper and get the same percentage of votes as COD.
I am actually sortof serious, if COD runs again I might challenge her in the primary. Though I think she might be done if she can scam a national deal like palin.