538’s Nate Silver reexamines Sarah Palin’s chances at locking up the Teapublican nomination in 2012. A year ago, Silver thought Palin might have a credible chance. Silver looks at ten different areas that could effect a possible nomination from enthusiasm, the right-wing tilt of the GOP, and the mainstream media cheering on her candidacy among others.
Silver also brings up a truth that might hurt Palin and surprise the O’Donnell supporters in Delaware:
In particular, it should be alarming to her how quickly some figures in the Republican establishment have turned against her. It is probably not a coincidence that these attacks began to escalate shortly after this November’s elections, in which Republicans were perceived as having sacrificed several Senate seats, like in Delaware and Nevada, because of having nominated unelectable candidates.