Kovach – The X Factors
Last night Republican Tom Kovach won the special election for New Castle County Council President. This came as a surprise to many people since structurally, Tim Sheldon had all the advantages. Sheldon had union support (for turnout), Council experience and a large Democratic registration advantage in New Castle County. What went wrong for Sheldon or, conversely, what went right for Kovach?
Here are some possible X factors:
1) Social Media – Tom Kovach is very active in social media, especially Twitter. I think people sometimes overestimate the influence of social media and blogs but in a low turnout special election on a snowy Thursday in January I don’t think you can underestimate their importance. Name recognition and personal relationships are very important in getting elected. I think Tom Kovach won that fight by being active in social media and attending events to get his name out there.
2) Paul Clark fatigue – Paul Clark is unpopular among a lot of politically-connected people. We’ve had a number of recent stories in the newspaper about Clark and his marriage to a developer-connected lawyer. Unfortunately for Tim Sheldon, he was seen as connected to Clark (although he tried to distance himself). The race turned into a classic insider/outsider race and people who are mad about the direction of county government voted for Kovach.
3) Republicans wanted it more – After the shellacking that the Delaware GOP took in November, the GOP was hungry for a win. Kovach’s website was full of pictures of Kovach with Mike Castle. Mike Castle and Tom Ross really wanted vindication, and the remnants of the Castle machine were able to deliver for Kovach.
4) The stakes didn’t seem high – The county council is full of Democrats. Despite the title of president, the NCCo County Council President is mostly just another council member. Kovach won’t have much power to change things and would perhaps act as an adversary to Paul Clark.
5) A political junkie effect? – Political junkies are strange animals. We obsess over things that most people find boring. I think we’re influencers of others in our social network but our power is limited. However, this was a low turnout special election. The people who turn out are the diehards. The consensus among the junkies I know was that Tom Kovach was a good guy, a smart man and well, Tim Sheldon is also running. I got emails from Democrats I know saying they were voting for Kovach.
These are just my initial impressions of the race. What other factors can you think of? Am I way off base here?
Tags: New Castle County Council President, Tim Sheldon, Tom Kovach
I knew this would happen! Tea Party claims victory in Kovach victory. Like clockwork, I tell ya.
http://www.delawarepolitics.net/the-take-from-the-right/
“Kovach also declared that the tea party would form the back-bone of his Republican administration in office.”
i cant wait!
Kovach played a flirty footsie game with the Tea Party. It will be interesting to see how that all plays out. Luckily for Kovach, he’s outnumbered enough that he can vote against tax increases AND cuts to services.
Notice though that Kovach denied the Facebook ad, but not the quote.
“Kovach also declared that the tea party would form the back-bone of his Republican administration in office.”
That is an outright lie. That appeared in the unauthorized Facebook ad. Kovach won because of Castle R’s and his ability to draw in D’s and I’s. In fact, most of the D’s I know voted for him. These are Coons/Carney voters. More than anything else, this was a referendum on Paul Clark. Delaware Politics should stick to what it does best: censuring other R’s down in Sussex- loosers.
Good luck trying to make that point with the Tea Party, Dr. Strangevote. This will now be their position – right up there with Death Panels, socialism, etc.
In their opinion, they never really lose. It’s always someone’s fault, except their own.
My bet: This win will not help vindicate Tom Ross in the eyes of the Tea Party.
No one was more wrong on this election than I was. I’m ending my self-imposed timeout to try to figure out why. Of UI’s choices, I choose 2 and 4.
But I’m gonna add my own spin as well. I looked at this as a GOTV election, which is why I saw Sheldon as an easy winner. Clearly, that was not the case. People were concerned about checks and balances on Clark, as were we, I might add, and Kovach represented the best choice to them for that role.
If D’s voted for Kovach in any large number, and they obviously did, I think one reason why is that Sheldon was too identified with the unions. That, by and large, is Sheldon’s own fault. Allow me to quote from Sheldon’s own mailer that I received on Monday:
“Tim Sheldon started as an apprentice in the Bricklayers Union, and is now the Chief Administrative Officer for the Bricklayers & Allied Craftworkers Local Union No. 1. In that capacity, Tim makes sure that his members have good retirement security when their working days are over.”
This is the first thing you read if you don’t bother to open up the mailer, and trust me, few people open these mailers. While this may sell to union members, who presumably already knew this, it’s a horrible way to convince anyone else to vote for you. It reflects the likelihood that not even a moment of thought went into this mailer. Either that, or Sheldon hoped that the union vote, which is pretty miniscule, would carry him to victory.
I think this mailer actually HURT him quite a bit b/c he didn’t draw an inspiring picture of what he might DO as Council Prez (i. e. shadow Clark and blow the whistle any time he does something untoward). If you’re a Markell D, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for Sheldon after receiving this? I’d say, a lot less likely. So, people either stayed home, or took a chance on Kovach.
The Democratic Party did an excellent job on GOTV. But it’s like that apocryphal award-winning dog food advertising campaign. Despite brilliant promotion of the dog food, the dog food company went bankrupt. Why?
“The dogs wouldn’t eat it.”
The backbone of his administration as council president?
He gets to hire his own aide. I’ll be surprised if he chooses a TP member (no COD jokes, please).
UI has nailed some key explanations, but here’s a little more:
I heard some of the WDEL debate, read their position papers — Kovach comes across as a polished attorney, Sheldon as an angry bricklayer (remember Joe the Plumber?). Kovach makes a more positive impression.
Also, Sheldon was talking about user fees for libraries and parks. Bad move. Library users are more informed, probably more likely to vote. Regardless of how many people use parks, the thought of charging people to use them (and figuring out how to collect the fees) — well, it doesn’t take much to see that this is not a well-thought-out idea. And that’s certainly not what voters would want to see from the person in charge of county council.
I never heard Sheldon say he would charge for library use – HORRIBLE STUPID but I absolutely agree with some fees for park use. The MD Fair Hill and PA WHite Clay Creek systems call for a simple honor-box if you are using their parking lots. You pay in an envelope and there is a floating checker to see if the cars in the lot have paid (I assume there are annual parking stickers one can buy as well). The fines are large. But it makes sense to have users pay a token amount for parks.
Notice though that Kovach denied the Facebook ad, but not the quote.
*
uuuuhm, yeah, like you gve him a chance to articulate that….
The NCC GOP has been in a knock-down drag-out fight with the tp for an entire election cycle. The years-ago riverfront event is not an indicator on ANY NCC GOP stand in 2011 or 2010 for that matter.
umm. . . old people
Great post UI. (I’m commenting on behalf of DL’s many lurkers). The teabagz and Cadtleites both wanted to prove that they could win an election, so it was a perfect storm for Kojack. I just hope he shows his RINO colors and ends up pissing off the teabagz. I doubt he will though. He is a Republican after all.
@ Pandora: “My bet: This win will not help vindicate Tom Ross in the eyes of the Tea Party.”
Sadly, you are spot on Pan. A victory in a special election will not cure political rabies. Still, it hints at what might be accomplished in New Castle when Vance, his “Witchy Woman,” and his legion of “Patriots” are not around to muck it all up.
And this win does not show that a centrist New Castle R can win a state wide Republican primary.
As to why Kovach won:
#1- Paul Clark. Most of the Democrats I know that voted for Tom expressed deep, deep reservations over Paul.
#2- new media. Tom effectively used Twitter and Facebook, Sheldon was essentially invisible on those sites. Tom’s supporters did a good job getting their friends to the polls with Tweets, emails, and Facebook posts, the D’s did not.
#3- Team Castle’s revenge. Make no mistake about it, Tom’s inner circle are all people that were close to, or part of, Team Castle. These individuals were highly motivated to win one for “the good guys” after enduring the debacle of losing to an unemployed drifter who thinks evolution is a myth in the Senate primary.
Nemski is probably right. It is our fair state’s fastest growing demographic. Does anyone besides me NOT have a handicapped parking placard?
the collective IQ of county council will double when Tom is sworn in…
not that it will help.
In the last 5 years, taxes up 55%, fees up 65% and borrowing up 100% AND Still they couldn’t balance the budget.
“Tim makes sure that his members have good retirement security when their working days are over.” … by getting them jobs at the county.
I don’t think #3 can be overstated. The financial report highlighted in the News Journal went through talk radio, blogs, and social media. With the exception of 4 or 5 dissenters, everyone center right rallied to their standardbearer. The GOP had a better GOTV than you give it credit for. People statewide wanted this one. Tom Ross set a tone of focusing on this race. Friendly Rival Don Ayotte likewise rallied to it from the beginning, There was no daylight between the factions despite highly publicized differences.
David, can the Don Ayotte shit. You and he are two of the leading losers primarily responsible for the November apocalypse. Your support for vile, awful, unelectable candidates, led to a catastrophe for Republicans in this State.
And Ayotte played ZERO, zero roll in this win- saying otherwise is a LIE. Your “faction” consists of like 25 people in New Castle County- every single one of whom is a loser, non of whom made a bit of difference. There was never a Teabag to be seen at Kovach events.
So go goose step back your hate speech blog you fascist. Or better yet, go censure yourself. It’s what you nuts do best.
Someone pointed out to me “If Sheldon wins, there’s going to be ANOTHER special election to fill his seat. UGH.”
Seriously, what over-analysis for some 29,000 votes.
What I’ve learned:
1. Old people vote
2. Unions cannot get out the vote in Delaware.
Thanks nemski. Overanalysis is my specialty.
David, I think you overestimate the influence of downstate voters in a NCCo election. Remember, “Karl Rove,” obviously a Mike Protack avatar or acolyte, not only predicted a double-digit loss for Kovach, he said he — and, he claimed, others he counseled — were going to vote for a third-party candidate to make the point that they don’t like RINOs. Your site is overrun by contributors and commenters who maintain that moderates Republicans are worse than Democrats because they’re “traitors” to the conservative cause.
Spin all you want, the entire state knows the role conservatives played here: None.
Nice post,UI. This looked like a classic Delaware election, to me. One nice guy people knew, one presumably nice guy no one had heard of. People who had time ambled over to the polls to vote for guy one.
It used to all be like that.
LOL UI . . . . it’s the scientist in you.
Recent News Journal article about the race focused primarily on Clark. That combined with Ron Williams and Dace Blaskovitz articles over the past few weeks likely helped Kovach.
For the record, Tom Kovach denied that the quote was his.
Friendly Rival Don Ayotte…. Everyone is a friendly rival just befor the shooting commences.
Apparently everyone who voted for Kovach is at the Shop Rite on 202 right now!
Incorrect Geezer, His campaign manager was a hard core conservative. People came from across state or stayed home and called. Mike Castle worked it. Conservatives worked it. That is a united effort. The tea party guys like George and Evan put their leadership on the line, but so did Tom Ross and Mike Fleming. Don organized carpool lit drops. Glen Urquhart promoted him. We endorsed him and pushed him to our friends and lists. That is why I give the party credit.
I do not think downstate voters changed the outcome at all. Please clarify.
All of which may be true, but my home got no calls and no literature from the GOP for this election, in contrast to November. I got three calls and two pieces of literature from Sheldon.
How does a Tea Party person “put his leadership on the line” with a candidate who sells himself as a moderate? By not impeding him? Because the Democrats clearly felt that tying him to the Tea Party would be a detriment, or they wouldn’t have run a phony pro-Kovach Tea Party ad.
No they actively endorsed him. They had to overcome initial resistance from some.
Yes, that is one reason why Dems lost. They were so out of touch that they spent energy appealing to their own echo chamber instead of motivating the voters with a real message which had any relationship to the county’s challenges. The ad had no effect–maybe even fired up Republicans more than Democrats when talk of it went around. It did not determine the election, but what it did do was illustrate that they had no answers.
Ads you said in the past, my friend you normally vote Democratic. In the special, the GOP focused most of its efforts on the base vote when it came to personal contact. It is a big county and there was no time to raise the money to run a general election campaign. You can only see so many people. It is hard to get volunteers out over Hannukuk and Christmas season.
Turns out Hannukuk isn’t a word. Who knew?
who determined that the D’s placed the Ad…isn’t that just speculation? I have real doubts that the D’s placed the ad…don’t think that they were that creative in this campaign..they ignored social media as was stated previously
David mentions Evan.. who knew there were campaign video trackers to hassel. Oh, and has he paid those judgments off yet?????
Glen Urquhart… ROTFLMAO… for real David, are you that out of touch? Wait.. I know the answer already…
Wow – the delusional one is an expert on every county in the state. I wonder if there’s anything he doesn’t know, besides the correct spelling of Chanukah.
I listened to both on WDEL and came away unimpressed with Sheldon. I think Paul Clark fatigue (not sure that is the word I’m looking for) was the deciding factor. Anyway, I’m not sure how much balance or checks on Pam Scott Kovach can bring to the council.
IMO, Tom Kovach is simply a much better candidate than Tim Sheldon. El’s ‘Union’ analysis probably had a negligible effect overall. I did not receive his mailer, but stating as your biggest strength as: being a ‘lifelong union leader,’ does little justice to the rest of the citizens of NCC.
I also used Social Media to push for Tom (Twitter and FB) along with e-mail and good-ole phone calls to friends, neighbors and family members. Every vote counts in such a low-turnout election. I’m actually surprised that approx. 27k people DID vote. I thought it would be even lower.
Indeed, Clark needs a check on his power (the spouse connection surely hurt). But don’t underestimate Kovach himself. He’s polished, well-read, educated and generally a moderate Republican; he appeals to a lot of Independents and Dems who were from the Mike Castle school of politics ( middle of the roaders in Dem DE).
Finally, Sheldon also made the fatal mistake that Mr. Castle made. He underestimated his base and thus did not campaign anywhere near as hard as his or her opponent did.
Almost forgot, one last item why Sheldon lost:
He seemed to avoid Kovach and a public debate like the plague! Sheldon seemed to also make excuses why he was unable to allow the public the opportunity to see his debate/issues skills in action.
Let’s see, I’m running for PRESIDENT of NCC, but I don’t need to rearrange my schedule to actually try to WIN the election. I had other, more pressing things to do. That’s like saying Obama had more important things to do than make a speech in Tucson, AZ. It should be on Anderson Cooper’s Ridiculist!
Oh, please most of you didn’t even have a clue he would win while others worked hard. Then you want to tell the people who have been pushing they don’t know what happened.
So there is no misinterpretation as you guys are wont to do, this was a Kovach victory not a “Tea Party” victory. Yes, members of the movement were part of the coalition so were a lot of others. Tom Ross gets a star for keeping the team together.
Here’s a clue, David. Most people didn’t care who won this race. They were comfortable with either candidate – which I think is the main reason for the low turn-out. And I know quite a few Ds who voted for Kovach.
Now… had Kovach been a Tea Party candidate the results would have been different. NCCO is okay with what you guys call RINOs, but they don’t like Tea.
The main reason for the low turnout is that you had a snowy January special election with the D’s demoralized with the revelations of the mismanagement of the county. You are right, people in NCC are okay with RINO’s. They also don’t hate the Tea Party either. The average NCC voter is not a conservative. They are pretty much were Kovach is. Markell on the left and Kovach on the right would be a pretty good composite. Some voters are far left like you guys and some are solidly on the right so a composite is just that. Council President elect Kovach just doesn’t scare anyone in the middle in fact they relate to him, but he is conservative enough to be acceptable to enough of the right.
Would I rather win with 52% with a more conservative candidate sure. Terry Spence would be my choice, but he didn’t want to run. Mr. Kovach was willing to run and he just plain out worked Mr. Sheldon. He was out all of the time and at every game and event he knew of. He just plain out worked the otherside and that inspired his team.
Pandora… if you were walking down the street, and some disheveled person approached you reeking of alcohol and began muttering inaccurate falsehoods and making delusional statements, would you stop and try to debate with them?
If not, why debate on a blog with David Anderson? The man wrote rapturous odes to Christine on his blog… I could go on. Anyway, my point is, you are arguing with someone who is not firmly grounded in the same reality you and I inhabit.
He “needs” to feed the lie that the whacky tea party somehow contributed to this- it’s all he’s got.
I feel the need to repost on this thread:
May I chime in here guys? I am not sure who Republican Dave is…But I know who I am, I was Tom’s Campaign Manager and I could not be further from the Tea Party. I (as is Tom) am a moderate Republican. We had very little support from anyone from the “Tea Party” and Far right wing. A few members of the Kent County GOP came up to help with some lit drops, and a parade, and some calling, but the majority of our campaign was not from that sect of the Delaware GOP. We welcomed help from anyone on our campaign, I’d D’s and R’s . Our objective was to fix a broken and unbalanced County Government, nothing more and nothing less. Moreover, I do not know Evan Q, even if I fell over him. Glen U. had Tom on one radio talk show he was subbing for and I need to check , but I am pretty sure we did not cash the check from Christine. If you have any other questions, I will be happy to answer them.
ps. I agree with most of the x factors listed at the begining of this post.
You are SO going to get a motion to censure brought against you by the Principled Patriot’s of the Sussex County Region, right after they are done tarring and feathering King George a/k/a “Ron Sams” and have shot, cooked, and entirely consumed the Easter Bunny.
Bring it on!
Thanks for weighing in Andye.
We all, Republicans, Democrats, Independents …hell even the blue enigma folks, need to work together … if you haven’t noticed.. we’re all going to hell in a hand basket!
Work together for what end? The Democrats running things have proven they want to work for their benefit at the expense of the people. Sheldon said the big accomplishment is that this batch was ethical enough not to go to jail. You are smarter than that. They need to be defeated. Democrats of good will need to be courted.
That is the problem with so called moderates and it is the very reason things are going down hill. No plan but appeasement. Fortunately, your boss seems to have a real idea of what is wrong. I bet he will have some solutions.
You seem to not know a lot of people or dismiss the people who you try to say you appreciated. Should Glen not have had you on? Was not his support a unifying factor? If right and center did not come together would this have been possible? I doubt it. That is why I give Mike Fleming and Tom Ross so much credit along with Dave Tise, Emily and company they brought people along at crucial junctures. It doesn’t diminish yours, but they catered to people who actually supported the candidate.
Sounds like a tantrum from the delusional one because Andye is kissing his tuchas.
My response to Nancy Willing is Yes Tim Sheldon did say that at the Jan.11 Hockessin Debate at the Fire Hall as I was there and heard it and below is a copy and paste from the Community Pub with what Tim Sheldon said.
Comment by Nancy Willling on 14 January 2011 at 9:07 am:
I never heard Sheldon say he would charge for library use – HORRIBLE STUPID but I absolutely agree with some fees for park use.
http://www.communitypub.com/county_news/x1314137050/As-vote-nears-council-candidates-ramp-up-rhetoric
Sheldon: The county’s fiscal situation has been a concern of Sheldon’s since he was first elected in 2004, he said. As he has previously, he said he would vote against any property tax increase that’s proposed. He would, however, consider supporting the creation of user fees for some discretionary services, like parks or libraries. “My feeling is, if I don’t use it, why should I pay for it?” he said.
Like I said, I never heard it. I didn’t say he never said it. And with much emphasis I say now again HORRIBLE STUPID and bad on Tim for suggesting that a library resource should be pay-as-you-go. Sheldon voted for all the changes to the code that have set us up for the huge increases in tax, storm water and sewer fee increases. He also voted for the budgets that included these projected increases.
He was part of the expanded council that no one in the state but Minner and her cronies wanted. Minner wanted that expansion for a reason and that was to ally with the development community for bucks-to-DEMs campaigns. I would have to guess that is why Jack Markell kept Carolann Wicks and her team in place. The massive land development boondoggle is a product of a long-standing, DEM machiner corruption. Please don’t lets shutter access to LIBRARIES because we have squandered our resources paying for the sewers and storm water pond amnesty etc. so that developers can infill yet another parcel up the peidmont in our lucrative NCC chateau country surrounds.
“My feeling is, if I don’t use it, why should I pay for it?” he said.
Another sterling example of how progressive union candidates can be when the subject isn’t union wages and benefits.
Geezer you are a union hater. It was the unions who gave us the middle class and made this country what it is. Too bad, you arent clever enough to realize what is obviously a right wing attack on labor. Since Raygun the right have tried to bust unions, cuz they dont want the middle class to have a liveable wage. On this issue you are dead wrong. The newly elected teabagger Congressman wants to bring back child labor. It was the unions who got rid of child labor, do you support going back to that as well?
What does the history of unions have to do with the unions’ involvement in Delaware politics? Calling me names won’t change a thing. And by your inability to address the issue, you show you are the not-so-clever one here.
Try to defend Sheldon’s quote in terms of progressivism. Good luck.