Last night Republican Tom Kovach won the special election for New Castle County Council President. This came as a surprise to many people since structurally, Tim Sheldon had all the advantages. Sheldon had union support (for turnout), Council experience and a large Democratic registration advantage in New Castle County. What went wrong for Sheldon or, conversely, what went right for Kovach?
Here are some possible X factors:
1) Social Media – Tom Kovach is very active in social media, especially Twitter. I think people sometimes overestimate the influence of social media and blogs but in a low turnout special election on a snowy Thursday in January I don’t think you can underestimate their importance. Name recognition and personal relationships are very important in getting elected. I think Tom Kovach won that fight by being active in social media and attending events to get his name out there.
2) Paul Clark fatigue – Paul Clark is unpopular among a lot of politically-connected people. We’ve had a number of recent stories in the newspaper about Clark and his marriage to a developer-connected lawyer. Unfortunately for Tim Sheldon, he was seen as connected to Clark (although he tried to distance himself). The race turned into a classic insider/outsider race and people who are mad about the direction of county government voted for Kovach.
3) Republicans wanted it more – After the shellacking that the Delaware GOP took in November, the GOP was hungry for a win. Kovach’s website was full of pictures of Kovach with Mike Castle. Mike Castle and Tom Ross really wanted vindication, and the remnants of the Castle machine were able to deliver for Kovach.
4) The stakes didn’t seem high – The county council is full of Democrats. Despite the title of president, the NCCo County Council President is mostly just another council member. Kovach won’t have much power to change things and would perhaps act as an adversary to Paul Clark.
5) A political junkie effect? – Political junkies are strange animals. We obsess over things that most people find boring. I think we’re influencers of others in our social network but our power is limited. However, this was a low turnout special election. The people who turn out are the diehards. The consensus among the junkies I know was that Tom Kovach was a good guy, a smart man and well, Tim Sheldon is also running. I got emails from Democrats I know saying they were voting for Kovach.
These are just my initial impressions of the race. What other factors can you think of? Am I way off base here?