A FOX News Poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) this week of 911 registered voters (911 voters? really Fox? what a coincidence) finds President Obama in a very good position for reelection at this early point.
He leads Romney 48%-41%. He leads Huckabee 49% to 41%. He leads Palin 56% to 35% and Gingrich 55% to 35%. Palin and Gingrich would give Obama a 40+ state landslide, given recent statewide polls shows Obama beating Palin in such ultra liberal places like Alabama, Texas, Wyoming and Tennessee. Oh, even though Jeb Bush says he will not run, Fox polled his name anyway, and Obama destroys him 54% to 34%. Jeb Bush polls less than Sarah Palin. Amazing. That is how toxic Bush’s name still is. Yeah, America does not miss ya, W.
The Republican Party typically gives its presidential nominations to the candidate whose “turn” it seems to be. In 2012, you can argue that four candidates are due their turn. Sarah Palin, because she was the Vice Presidential candidate in 2008. Mitt Romney, because he was a runner-up in 2008 to McCain and is clearly the establishment choice. Mike Huckabee, because he too was a runner up in 2008 to McCain. And Newt Gingrich, because he is a former Speaker and 2012 is probably his last chance at national office.
From these poll results, no candidate can be said to offer the better chance to beat Obama. Sure, Huckabee and Romney poll over 40%, but they both still trail the President by 8 and 7 points, respectively. And you can forget Romney’s viability as a candidate altogether. There is no way on Earth the Republican base is going to nominate him after RomneyCare. No way. Meanwhile, Huckabee is not trusted by the business wing of the party. Nor am I convinced he is going to run at all.
If I were a betting man, I would bet that either Gingrich or Palin will be the nominee. For this simple reason, their running and losing gives them their “turn” and the GOP can move on. And I favor Gingrich over Palin very narrowly at this moment because he seems likely to merge the batshit crazy wing with the business wing. Nobody in the GOP hates Newt.
So perhaps he gets the honor of being the GOP’s George McGovern/Walter Mondale.