Wisconsin Wants A Do Over

Filed in National by on March 1, 2011

I think I’ve shared with you before my thoughts on Scott Walker. I wonder what goes on inside his head. He told the fake David Koch that Reagan firing the air traffic controllers made him win the cold war (?!?!?). So perhaps Walker is a bit wrong in the head? Walker could have gotten most everything he wanted early on (all the wage concessions) and I’ll bet the sneaky stuff he tried to put in the budget repair bill (no-bid sales of state assets, turning Medicaid over to a Heritage Foundation wingnut) if he had agreed to drop the collective bargaining provision. Well Walker didn’t take a deal and here’s where we are today:

We’ll have our full poll on the Wisconsin conflict out tomorrow but here’s the most interesting finding: if voters in the state could do it over today they’d support defeated Democratic nominee Tom Barrett over Scott Walker by a a 52-45 margin.

The difference between how folks would vote now and how they voted in November can almost all be attributed to shifts within union households. Voters who are not part of union households have barely shifted at all- they report having voted for Walker by 7 points last fall and they still say they would vote for Walker by a 4 point margin. But in households where there is a union member voters now say they’d go for Barrett by a 31 point margin, up quite a bit from the 14 point advantage they report having given him in November.

It’s actually Republicans, more so than Democrats or independents, whose shifting away from Walker would allow Barrett to win a rematch if there was one today. Only 3% of the Republicans we surveyed said they voted for Barrett last fall but now 10% say they would if they could do it over again. That’s an instance of Republican union voters who might have voted for the GOP based on social issues or something else last fall trending back toward Democrats because they’re putting pocketbook concerns back at the forefront and see their party as at odds with them on those because of what’s happened in the last month.

I’ve seen commentators mention that Union households generally vote for Democrats by a 60-40 margin. I think we’d call that 40% the Reagan Democrats. If this voting pattern shifts by even 10%, that’s a 2% rise in the popular vote for Democrats. I think only time will tell to see if we’ve reached a turning point in this fight but Scott Walker has brought the rightwing agenda into stark clarity for a lot of people.

BTW, Scott Walker won by 5% in November, 52-47, so this is a 12% turnaround in his numbers.

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Opinionated chemist, troublemaker, blogger on national and Delaware politics.

Comments (42)

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  1. socialistic ben says:

    this is the same party and the same people who thought GWB’s appointment to the presidency was a democratic mandate to lead. dont expect them to understand what actual democracy means. Just look at how they reacted when they lost an election. (08)
    I cant wait to see what other batty ideas these teabag govs come up with.

  2. Obama2008 says:

    The difference between how folks would vote now and how they voted in November can almost all be attributed to shifts within union households.

    That loud pop you heard was Reagan Democrats pulling their heads out of their asses.

  3. skippertee says:

    O008-Man, you are so right. I NEVER understood these freaks, class traitors and clowns who allowed the Republicans to take money out of THEIR pockets and handed them the KNIVES to SLIT THEIR OWN THROATS!!!!

  4. To fix the issue, can I suggest we rerun all of the Wisconsin state representative and senate races as well. We need a “what are they going to do camera” we can point at these folks so that you can see the consequences of your vote not just the rhetoric these guys spout in order to get elected.

  5. Publius says:

    Can we have a do-over vote on Obama too?

  6. Geezer says:

    “Can we have a do-over vote on Obama too?”

    You would find that he’d still win. This poll question was specifically asked as a rematch. Good luck finding 50% who would now vote for McCain-Palin.

  7. Von Cracker says:

    You get the government you deserve; the WI folks are discovering that now.

    Part of me wants to say to the moderates, indies and liberals who stayed home last election (the only reason for the GOP gains, btw), to go fuck themselves. But hey, we all make mistakes and having the dingos in charge of the pre-schools should be an eye-opener to the rest of the silent majority.

  8. donviti says:

    When is Obama putting on his walking shoes and marching with those guys?

    The sooner there are no more unions, the sooner the entire middle class will wake up

  9. Dana says:

    Maybe they’ll get their “do-over” . . . in 3¾ years. Right now, the cheeseheads are fortunate enough to have a Republican governor and Republicans in control of both Houses of the state legislature, so, regardless of however they vote in 2012 and 2014, they’ll be better off because of it.

  10. Geezer says:

    Unless they depend on the government for education or other services, you mean.

    Meanwhile, Democrats have learned the lesson not to fall asleep or get demoralized or they’ll find themselves sacrificed on the altar of plutocracy.

    Meanwhile, thank you, Dana, for identifying yourself as another traitor to your class.

  11. Von Cracker says:

    Don’t expect that to happen anytime soon, dv.

  12. pandora says:

    Why would Obama, or any other National Dem, do anything to take the focus off of Walker? I get the symbolism, but changing the narrative of Walker vs the people to Walker vs Obama strikes me as politically naive.

    Maybe I’m missing something. Can you explain how Obama marching with the protesters plays out to our advantage? I get that I’d cheer it on, but I don’t see it working to our advantage after the moment of symbolism.

  13. socialistic ben says:

    “The sooner there are no more unions, the sooner the entire middle class will wake up”

    dv, i think that is what its gonna take. We need to be worked 65 hours a week, have no health care or retirement plans, get paid an average of 39k a year and be fired if we are hurt on the job (i.e teabag utopia) before anyone tries to change the trend

  14. skippertee says:

    Right, socialistic ben ,the The Triangle Shirtwaist Factory in our modern modem, like West by God Virginia’s dead non miner’s right’s, will wake them up.
    It’s all a FUCKING JOKE!
    The PEOPLE have got to take to the STREETS.
    Until we do,nothing will change.

  15. Dana Garrett says:

    ” get paid an average of 39k a year”

    $39K a year would be a step up. I read recently that the medium income for the American worker is $29K. Perhaps that’s why 1 out of every 3 Americans either live in poverty or close to the poverty rate.

  16. Dana Garrett says:

    Damn spellcheck. I meant median income.

  17. Newshound says:

    It is outrageous that the 14 Democratic state senators who’ve abandoned their constitutionally-sworn posts are not being ‘recalled’ or worse. I’ve never seen such a flagrant disregard for the rule of law.

    Imagine if Republicans fled DC during the Health Care Bill Debate? Btw, the parliamentary-approved filibuster is allowed in the U.S. Senate. It’s an agreed upon deliberation tool that each minority party uses when necessary.

    I cannot say the same for the shameful Wisconsin Dems hiding out. I did not know that someone’s state senator required a secret bat-phone and number in order to interact with their respective elected official.

    How can one claim democracy when one won’t show up to vote?

    http://www.detnews.com/article/20110227/OPINION03/102270310/1008/AWOL-Dems-defy-ballot-box

  18. cassandra m says:

    Talking points on parade, right here in DL.

    Again.

    🙄

  19. Newshound says:

    Why don’t ya’ll call on comrade Obama and cash-in on some of the Professional Left’s political capital that has gone unspent and ask him for an ‘old’ favor. I know LeBron will flow the prez a new comfortable pair of B-ball sneaks – heck, he may even autograph them for Barack.

    His hair was even still dark then. That could be socialist ben in the background in the blue shirt and tie…Lol.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SA9KC8SMu3o&feature=player_embedded

  20. pandora says:

    Sheesh, more NH blogging panic. Walker must be in deep trouble.

    Comrade Obama? Careful, your tea party is showing.

  21. cassandra m says:

    A man who can’t tell the difference between a parent organization with multiple subsidiaries and firms that “don’t have anything to do with each other” (while bragging that he had the Zandis as teachers) has No Business discussing anyone’s political capital.

    Your credibility gap is awfully big.

    The point and laugh factor for you, is just as big.

    Keep it up Mr. Panic.

  22. Jason330 says:

    Who was it that said Newshound sounded like a paid wingnut? He is either that or a sad lonely shut in. I don’t know which is more pitiful.

  23. liberalgeek says:

    If I’m not mistaken, a quorum is a just as valid a construct as a filibuster. Both are rules of the road. When Republicans decided to pervert those rules to do all sorts of things to undermine Democrats it was all well and good. But as soon as a Democrat (or in this case 14 heroic Dems) decide that they will use the rules to their benefit it is some sort of law-breaking.

    I’d be anxious to hear what rule of law the state Senators have broken and why Scott Walker hasn’t filed those charges against the senators.

    Yet it is Walker that has decided that he can disregard the law by trying to require the senators to pick up their checks rather than direct deposit them. It is Walker that has used bully tactics (sending state police to the homes of the senators) to try to intimidate elected officials with the instruments of state power.

  24. Newshound says:

    Of course you never respond to simple questions like the AWOL senators. Public-sector unions aren’t even necessasry in today’s civil service environment.

    I’ve watched dozens of pro-union hacks the last several days attempt to offer a strong argument as to why Gov. Walker’s ‘union-busting’ stratagem is wrong. All I ever hear about is how CEO’s and Wall Street banks raped the middle class.

    Straw Man arguments only. Juxtapose the two sides and a stark reality appears rather quickly. The pro-union crowd doesn’t have one salient point to offer save for platitudes and paranoia.

    Btw, panic is as panic does…and Trumka, Daley and Obama are soiling their ‘collective’ pants about now. Hell, I heard Chavez and Raul Castro are looking to quell collective bargaining even…LMFAO!

  25. Geezer says:

    A CEO, a Tea Partier and a union member are sitting at a table; a platter with a dozen cookies sits in the center. The CEO takes 11 cookies and says to the Tea Partier, “Watch out. That guy wants part of your cookie.”

    His strategem is wrong because it calls for sacrifice from the middle class but none from the upper class. Your inability to understand that we are through fighting you for crumbs isn’t our problem, it’s yours. Nobody here is under any obligation to answer your talking points; you don’t win anything whether we do or not, unless your corporate masters are keeping score.

    Do you get paid by the post?

  26. Von Cracker says:

    Two can play, right?

    Sturmbannfuhrer NB’s on the kock dole.

    😈

  27. Unlike a filibuster, the quorum requirements are in the Wisconsin constitution. The difference between the filibuster and quorum – the filibuster is painless and is pretty much used on every piece of legislation. The quorum takes time and they actually leave the state. The quorum is a legitimate way to exercise a minority – it can’t be done for everything but can be used in an especially dramatic way. BTW, the quorum doesn’t mean bills have to pass by supermajority.

  28. cassandra m says:

    Of course you never respond to simple questions like the AWOL senators.

    And of course, you never bothered to concede that I was right about Moody’s. Not that it matters much. It allowed for all of the ownage that has got you into such a blogging panic over. So stop asking people to engage you while you are busily ignoring your idiocy.

    And I think that both LG and UI have dealt with the quorum question quite well, yes?

  29. Dana Garrett says:

    “Of course you never respond to simple questions like the AWOL senators.”

    I’ll answer. No elected official should participate in a tyrannical governmental proposed program to usurp what should be universally recognized as a natural right that citizens should possess and which they wish to exercise. Gov. Walker’s is attempting to strip from workers (it’s irrelevant that they are public employees) their right to negotiate their work conditions. When workers wish to exercise that right, it should be recognized by the government as a natural right that requires full protection by the government. If the WI Democratic Senators permitted, by their presence, a quorum of the state Senate to occur, and thereby ensure that Gov. Walker’s usurpation of workers’ right will be instantiated as law, they would effectively be complicit in tyranny.

    “Public-sector unions aren’t even necessasry in today’s civil service environment.”

    Obviously they are since, without them, they exclude what should be recognized as a universal natural right: viz., the right of workers to negotiate their work conditions and remuneration. The “civil service environment” in and of itself doesn’t recognize or instantiate that right.

  30. pandora says:

    Now Newshound will come back with something about Air America. 🙂

  31. cassandra m says:

    Or maybe we’ll get a repeat of how my union discriminates against minorities — that one was a keeper!

    😆

  32. socialistic ben says:

    “His hair was even still dark then. That could be socialist ben in the background in the blue shirt and tie…Lol.”

    i call outing-law violation.

  33. heragain says:

    “How can one claim democracy when one won’t show up to vote?”

    Is this the Colin Bonini thread?

  34. Newshound says:

    “No elected official should participate in a tyrannical governmental proposed program to usurp what should be universally recognized as a natural right that citizens should possess and which they wish to exercise. Gov. Walker’s is attempting to strip from workers (it’s irrelevant that they are public employees) their right to negotiate their work conditions.”

    With all due respect Dana, collective bargaining is not a ‘Natural Right.’ It has slowly evolved with the rise of unionism as a whole over the decades and morphed into a legislative remedy. It is not in the U.S. Constitution; it is not applicable to the Wagner Act of 1935 (only for private-sector unions); FDR, La Guardia and AFL-CIO scion George Meany all note otherwise, and without equivocation, on the inherent flaws that exist with allowing PS collective bargaining. Even one former peanut farmer signed a federal order in 1978 regarding the cb of federal workers. Yeah, that’s right, Jimmy Carter…J-I-M-M-Y C-A-R-T-E-R for crying out loud!

    Finally, at least 22 states outlaw collective bargaining all together. One of those states happens to be in the Mid-West Rust Belt of all places – Indiana. And is only one of two states in the U.S. to have a state budget surplus. The very first initiative Gov. Mitch Daniels did when he became governor in 2003 was to end all collective bargaining for ps unions.

    To say that Indiana is now a ‘Shinning city on a hill’ would be an understatement. One need only to peek next door at Illinois to see how the ‘other’ political experiment is working…er, not working.

    Btw, so i got the Moody’s affiliation wrong. So what?

  35. skippertee says:

    First off, I am not a psychiatrist. But I did see an episode of “In Treatment” while channel surfing the other night in a fog of Wild Turkey and Afghani Kush.
    Newshound, you SEEM lucid. But do you work a forty hour week?
    Or, are you the lucky recipient of a trust fund that allows you the time and leisure to shill for the corporate interests and constantly grind under your boot-heel anyone below your class?
    I’m really curious.
    I’d be willing to bet,that if we were to meet casually and just chat about things, you’d reveal your true nature within 5 minutes to me.
    And I, of course, would take my leave.

  36. Newshound says:

    “First off, I am not a psychiatrist. But I did see an episode of “In Treatment” while channel surfing the other night in a fog of Wild Turkey and Afghani Kush.
    Newshound, you SEEM lucid. But do you work a forty hour week?”

    Wow! Aside from your quaint and cavalier prognosis, and your NPR CEO Vivian Schiller-like tactical personal assault using the gestalt field of psychiatry, your’re not only as elitist as they come, but your comment is about as appropriate as the Dirty Sanchez facial hair that Qaddafi sports on his upper lip.

  37. skippertee says:

    Elitist? Me? HAHAHAHA-Good one, Newshound.You should SEE me.
    I am as normal looking as Adolf Eichmann.
    He was brought to Israel to answer for his crimes against humanity.The world couldn’t put two and two together when looking at a pathetic middle aged man in the docket.But his ACTIONS and WORDS betrayed himself.He WAS exposed as the MONSTER.
    Anyway, DO you work for a living?
    Do you exist on a trust fund?
    Hey, that’s OK. I have friends I fished all over the world with who were trust babies.
    Of course, they were thankful for the beneficence. And they were generous to the local community and one was an ardent Democrat.

  38. cassandra m says:

    Btw, so i got the Moody’s affiliation wrong. So what?

    So what is the long, dishonest dance you did trying to NOT admit you were wrong. So what is that the little credibility you might have had is absolutely gone now. So what is that you want to do what conservatives do — hang on to your misinformation while attempting to one up the people who DO know better.

    Since you’re just here to act like an asshole, don’t be surprised to be treated like one.

  39. Avagadro says:

    (Wisconsin State) Senate to take up (unanimously passed) resolution calling for $100 penalty for missing lawmakers

    Wispolitics.com

    Analysis by the Legislative Reference Bureau

    Under this resolution, a senator who is absent without leave from two or more session days is subject to a penalty equal to $100 for each day that the senator is absent without leave. In addition, the senator must reimburse the senate for the actual costs incurred to compel his or her attendance. The penalties and costs are imposed by adopting a privileged resolution that identifies the senator who has been absent without leave. A senator who is subject to the penalties and costs imposed by the resolution may only be heard on the matter on the session day on which the resolution is before the senate. If a senator who owes the penalties and costs has not paid the penalties and costs in full within 30 days after the resolution is adopted, the chief clerk will withhold from any payments due to the senator for per diem, travel expenses, or other matters, not including salary, the amount of any unpaid penalties and costs. The senate majority leader may also take certain measures to compel the attendance of any senator who is absent without leave. The resolution also allows the sergeant at arms to request the assistance of any law enforcement officer in this state to find and return any senator who is absent without leave.

  40. Newshound says:

    “So what is that the little credibility you might have had is absolutely gone now.”

    Wow, rather harsh, don’t you think? After all, a commenter did not dilineate btw his/her ‘Moodys’ reference and the true attribution.

    Plus, I am unable to use ‘Google’ or any other search engine b/c of some vicious Malware virus and therefore have to rely on memory only for my rresearch and historical references.

    As for me, skipper; I’m so poor, I have a 2003 computer and can’t afford to get it fixed. Lost 80% of my income over a year ago and have to rely on freelance writing and editing to keep from being another DOL statistic.

    No complaints here, however. I’ve always loved the underdog (Rocky, Horatio Alger – you get the picture). Life is good. I get to hone my argumentative and persuasion skills on DL where 98% of all commenters and posters villify me for my conservative-minded thought.

  41. cassandra m says:

    After all, a commenter did not dilineate btw his/her ‘Moodys’ reference and the true attribution.

    And instead of asking said commenter what he was referring to, you jumped all over him for being wrong for not knowing that Moody’s was completely separate from the Analytics part of the business. When that statement made it clear that *you* were the one who did not have the facts at hand. When the fact is that pretty much everybody uses the shorthand of Moody’s to refer to the multiple service lines of that company. Even the financial press. So, no, not particularly harsh when you take into consideration that the so-called conservative thought here was spectacularly wrong (as usual), and said wrong thought was being used to try to beat up another contributor — rather than engage in any real argument or persuasion.

    But then again, you just wrote that part to make yourself feel better. Believe me, you would be the only person here who things that you are honing anything besides your usual embarrassment.

  42. Aoine says:

    @Newshound – nope,wrong again – I vilified you for your abject ignorance…..

    plz see thread: David Anderson is lying to Dover