OK, kids, time to play the political equivalent of fantasy baseball. Sign up now. This opportunity only comes along once every ten years.
The numbers are out and the numbers have been loaded into the Leg Hall computers. John Tobin is likely to go days without sleep.
I just can’t wait. To make sure we’re on an even playing field, please open Monday’s News-Journal to page A2 so that you can follow along with me. If you don’t have it, check it out here. You can zoom in on the map that you want to see.
Today, we’re gonna start with the most intriguing, and potentially most disconcerting, legislative redistricting: The Delaware State Senate. For some reason, the Senate district-by-district population figures aren’t in the online article, but I’ll share them as we go along as needed.
Let’s start with the more-or-less official ground rules. From Chad Livengood’s article:
Delaware’s reapportionment law requires each new district meet the following criteria:
•Be formed of contiguous territory.
•Be nearly equal in population.
•Be bounded by major roads, streams or other natural boundaries. (I would add to this municipal and county boundaries which have been held to be appropriate boundaries for drawing lines.)
•Not be created so as to unduly favor any person or political party.
Redistricting guidelines stemming from federal court decisions allow for the population by district to fluctuate by up to 5 percent in each district. Residents who are incarcerated in state or federal prison are not counted for the purposes of reapportioning legislative districts.
After both houses of the General Assembly approve the new legislative district maps, all 41 House and 21 Senate district seats will be up for election in 2012.
Let’s now add what have been the more-or-less unofficial ground rules.
*Wherever practicable, incumbents should have a district in which to run. The Senate actually accomplished this ten years ago, which explains the look and breadth of the 4th Senatorial District, drawn at the time to make sure that Dallas Winslow had a district. Which reminds me, if you want to look at the individual maps, here’s your one-stop shop.
*Wherever practicable, communities should not be divided. This proviso was bulldozed by Wayne Smith ten years ago. But more of that when we look at the House
*The less change to the district, the better. Even if a district remains strongly weighted towards one political party or another, if there is significant change within the district, it means that the incumbent is not the incumbent for a significant number of voters.
It’s now time to play Senate Redistricting 2012! Here are the rules. There will be 21 Senate districts. No one has the stomach to even suggest that we need more districts, especially in light of our current budgetary situation. The average Senate district will have a population (not voters, but population) of 42,759. This is a simple mathematical formula: Population of Delaware divided by 21.
However, here is a very important factor to keep in mind as you draw your lines: Because federal guidelines permit a fluctuation of plus/minus 5% from this number, the REAL numbers to consider are 40,621 (5% below the average) and 44,897 (5% above the average). In other words, districts can vary in population by up to 4,276, from lowest population to highest population.
Here are the incumbent senators by district:
1. Harris McDowell (D)
2. Margaret Rose Henry (D)
3. Bob Marshall (D)
4. Michael Katz (D)
5. Cathy Cloutier (R)
6. Liane Sorenson (R)
7. Patti Blevins (D)
8. Dave Sokola (D)
9. Karen Peterson (D)
10. Bethany Hall-Long (D)
11. Tony DeLuca (D)
12. Dori Connor (R)
13. Dave McBride (D)
14. Bruce Ennis (D)
15. David Lawson (R)
16. Colin Bonini (R)
17. Brian Bushweller (D)
18. Gary Simpson (R)
19. Joseph Booth (R)
20. George Bunting (D)
21. Bob Venables (D)
I have highlighted Sen. Marshall’s name because he’s already stated that he will not run again. Since Wilmington can only justify two Senate districts, his district will be divvied up, and SD 3 will reappear somewhere else. At least one other district from New Castle County above the canal will have to disappear. Ideally, it would be done by voluntary retirement. If not, the retirement will be involuntary.
Which brings me to the major wild card in the Senate: Tiny Tony DeLuca. Those charged with actually drawing the lines, presumably Dick Carter, who is as good as it gets, must follow the parameters presented by the Caucus. Ain’t no freelancing in redistricting. Given his proclivities, DeLuca could very well use his position to exact political retribution. And, before you think that the House would never allow it, just remember, both plans must pass both chambers. He could well have significant leverage if he chooses to use it–and if he’s still Pro-Tem when the plan reaches the floor.
Now that the prologue is past, let’s start to divvy things up. The Marshall retirement will enable: Both Senators McDowell and Henry to pick up areas and make their numbers. In McDowell’s case, he is likely to shed some of his non-city territory, mostly in the Philadelphia Pike corridor. Here’s how. The population in the soon-to-be extinct 3rd SD is 35,535. McDowell would need a minimum of about 6K from Marshall to get his number. That’s easy as their districts share a common border. McDowell can go out past the St. Francis, all the way out to Union Park Gardens, and he’s got more than enough. I think he’ll get somewhere around 9K from Marshall and will give up about 3 K in the county. Margaret Rose Henry’s in a similar situation, needing a little over 6K. She, too, shares a common boundary with Marshall, and will likely pick up some Hispanic ED’s near the Latin American Community Center, as well as a couple of minority ED’s east of the Carvel Building. Let’s say that she gets 8K as well and can jettison a small ED or two adjacent to Gov. Printz Blvd.
Just like that, we’ve committed 17K of Marshall’s population and still have 18 K left. Well, Marshall also shares a boundary with Sen. Blevins, and she needs 4K. No problem. She can have Cleland Heights, Alban Park, and she’s likely there. Marshall still has 14 K left. His NW boundary abuts Mike Katz’ district, and Katz needs 5-6 K. Katz could conceivably pick up some non-city areas along Lancaster Pike, a couple of good Democratic ED’s. There are other possibilities as well. Give Blevins several thousand more so that Blevins can give Dave Sokola/Karen Peterson some numbers. Suffice it to say that, because the 3rd SD has common borders with several senate districts, the availability of these numbers is especially propitious.
To me the trickiest area for redistricting revolves around the 4th, 5th, and 6th SD’s. It is quite possible that one of these districts may not survive. But which one, if any? Each of the districts is between 4-7 K shy of the minimum population needed. Two of the three are held by R’s. The lone D is Katz, who is not, ahem, DeLuca’s best friend. Katz also lives in Centreville, near the western boundary of his district. Cloutier’s district has a strong D edge, and the only thing that has kept it D is Cloutier. But Cloutier’s district is kinda isolated, nestled in the NE corner of the state. And it’s still a D pickup waiting to happen. Even if you eliminated it, I don’t think you could redraw it to Centreville to take in Katz without it looking like even more of a monstrosity than it already is. Were Sorenson’s 6th District eliminated, it would enable Peterson and Sokola to pick up the numbers they need. I hope that someone retires to resolve the conundrum. Failing that, the 4th SD would appear to be the most likely district to disappear (sorry, it’s a good thing that Dick Carter is drawing the lines, not me), especially since it’s so hard to draw a D-friendly district when the senator resides in Centreville. Were that to happen, Sorenson’s district could move both north and east, Peterson, Sokola and maybe Blevins could pick up needed numbers, Cloutier could move west, while still picking up the ED’s along Philly Pike and Gov. Printz to the east vacated by McDowell and Henry, and you could fill in the blanks elsewhere. For example, if Dave McBride plans to seek reelection (he really shouldn’t, he lives in Lewes), some of Marshall’s numbers could go to him.
Bear in mind that the above scenario applies if, and only if, we don’t have another NCC senatorial retirement. McBride and Dori Connor are possibilities. If either does, the numbers will work out copacetically.
Whew! I had no idea just how long-winded I could be on this. Comes from working on two reapportionments myself, I guess. I’m gonna post this now, and try to regroup either later today or tomorrow. Guess this’ll definitely be more than a two-parter. Next time: We create a brand new district!
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got a real fantasy draft that is beckoning…