In Which We Create Two A Brand New Senate Districts.
OK, some simple math. If you create two new senate districts, and if you leave the total number of senate districts at 21, then two existing districts must disappear.
In our last, perhaps too much ‘inside baseball’- laced treatise, I identified Senate District 3, currently held by Senator Marshall, as the most likely to disappear. Marshall has announced he will not seek reelection, although he’s said to be considering a Wilmington mayoral bid, and Wilmington must lose one of its districts due to population shifts.
I also made the case that one of the northern districts ranging from the Delaware River west all the way to Hockessin (SD’s 4, 5, and 6), could be the other district to disappear. But that is in no way inevitable. You can make the numbers work to retain all three districts if (a) there is either a retirement elsewhere in New Castle County, the ideal solution; or (b) Tiny Tony DeLuca wants to exact retribution on someone who has crossed him. I doubt that goon squad tactics will fly this year, so the best for all concerned is for someone to retire. Except, of course, for the person ‘retiring’ should said retirement be ‘involuntary’. I’ve got a name and I’ve got a strategy, but you’ll have to wait awhile.
Let’s look at where the first new district is likely to go:
The New Senate District 3: Southern NCC/Northern Kent County
First, the Magic Number: 40,621. That number represents the minimum population needed for a Senate District in order for it to be in compliance with the established standards. So, in order to create a district that encompasses, let’s say, Delaware City, Middletown, Odessa, first you lop off the northern end of Sen. Bruce Ennis’ district, SD 14. The 14th is currently the most populous SD, and Ennis could give up 18K, a great start to the new district. Plus, Ennis lives in Smyrna, and his roots are more in the southern end of his district. Plus, Ennis could give up even more than 18K if he picks up some numbers from the northeastern part of the 15th, Nancy Cook’s ol’ stompin’ grounds. With that, this new district is already well on its way to having a solid D majority. In fact, ten years ago, we tried to draw the lines of the 14th in a manner that anticipated Ennis ultimately taking over the district, but Jim Vaughn was having none of it. The Smyrna resident wanted his Delaware City, and that was that. Which is why you see that huge middle finger salute at the northern end of the 14th. Time to amputate the finger.
7-8 K more can come from the 10th SD, Bethany Hall-Long’s district. The southern tier of her district directly abuts the ‘middle finger’ of the 14th, and takes in the areas west of Middletown up to the Canal. And Sen. Hall-Long lives in Glasgow, so she would still reside well within her district.
I now put the population of the new district at around 27 K. 14 K more to go.
Close to 6K of that can come from SD 12, Sen. Connor’s district. Possibly the entire 14K, actually. I would simply excise the portion of her district south/southwest of Wrangle Hill Road, give it to the new District 3, and you’re pretty close to a new district, one that’s contiguous and about as compact as you could get for the lower part of the county. Dori is probably several thousand short of her number with this change, so what do you do? You could conceivably do away with her district, but (a) hers is a Democratic seat waiting to happen; (b) labor loves her, justifiably; and (c) there’s a far better solution to a whole host of redistricting issues.
Folks, the simplest way to resolve Senate redistricting is for Sen. David McBride, who actually lives in Lewes, 90 minutes away from the southernmost tip of his district, to retire. I make this proposal not (just) because he doesn’t live remotely close to his district any more (even though he maintains an official ‘residence’ there), and not (just) because he’s spent over 30 years in Dover. It’s because his district is ideally situated to address virtually every remaining redistricting issue in New Castle County. McBride was so obstinate during reapportionment that he insisted that every place he had once lived remain in his district, even as he had moved southward five times during his bloated tenure in the General Assembly. Also, since he had once paved the streets in Dunleith some three decades ago, he insisted that the predominantly African-American communities of Rosemont and Dunleith remain in his district.You know, to show that he was a civil rights pioneer, or something.
Just like that, every redistricting issue is resolved, and to the advantage of D’s. No one was more pigheaded when it came to having a huge D edge than McBride. His latest registration figures:
15,290 D’s
4,299 R’s
5,389 I’s.
By far the most favorable D numbers for any senator outside the City of Wilmington. The census population for the district is 36,287. So, assuming that Dori gives 14K to the new district, placing her about 8K below the minimum population, 8K of McBride’s #’s would replenish Connor’s district, leaving 28K to address the shortfalls throughout the rest of New Castle County. In addition to Connor, McBride’s district shares borders with DeLuca, Peterson, Blevins, and Henry. And all the other NCC districts, including those in the northern tier, would indirectly be able to make their numbers with this one retirement. And the D’s will have solidified their hold on the Senate. While you are giving up two solid D districts, you will have created a solid D district in the lower part of the NCC, solidified D advantages in the remaining NCC districts, created a legitimately competitive district in Kent/Sussex, (more on that to come), and maintained at least one and, I would argue, two, Democratic senate districts waiting to happen. Connor’s district is a given. Even before redistricting, her registration figures are: 18, 824 D’s; 7,937 R’s; and 7679 I’s. Not merely a D plurality but a D majority with 54.6% of registrants as D’s. And the Cloutier district is almost equally as inviting: 12,846 D’s; 9,292 R’s; and 6,783 I’s. These numbers will only get worse for the R’s assuming that Cloutier picks up the ED’s that I project will be vacated along the Philly Pike/Gov. Printz corridor by Senators McDowell and Henry. And Cloutier will have more than enough total population to make her numbers just by picking up those ED’s.
As you can tell from my inelegant editing, I had planned to wrap this baby up today, but, hey, I admit it, I’m a redistricting junkie and just can’t get enough.
Next Time: In our final (I promise) installment on Senate redistricting, what the second new district could look like; what the D’s SHOULD do; and a couple of stupid mistakes that they could well make (one is even likely), but shouldn’t.