Yesterday there was a big Tea Party rally planned in Washington D.C. It was supposed to put pressure on Congressional Republicans to stay strong in the budget fight and to keep their promise of $100B in cuts. Only a few hundred people showed up despite the line up of Tea Party “stars” like Michele Bachmann and Rand Paul. Fox blamed the weather (to be fair it was cold) even though >100,000 protested for weeks in Wisconsin in the extreme cold.
Daily Kos speculates that the Tea Party is getting less popular, which is backed up by polling data. The Tea Party had -15 favorability in the last survey 32% favorable/47% unfavorable. There are other signs that the Tea Party is losing momentum. During the Wisconsin protests, the Tea Party was able to do only one counterprotest, again with only a few hundred people. Recent TV ratings show Fox has lost 21% of its audience (Beck has lost 30%) while CNN and MSNBC gain in ratings.
I would argue that the Tea Party was a net positive for Republicans in 2010. Yes, they lost some races that Republicans would have won (like Castle) but they brought passion and excitement to the right. I’m just not sure that would have happened without them. A lot of people speculate that the Tea Party passion is waning because the health care fight is mostly over. I think it’s because Republicans are back in power, so conservatives have lost their focus somewhat (nothing unites more than a common enemy). The current antics of energized birthers like Donald Trump are going to make Republicans look really bad. (Trump may be getting a lot of attention but it’s not the kind of positive attention you want to be elected to office.)
In Delaware, the Tea Party and energized right have successfully pushed the traditional Republicans out of power. What influence will the new Teapublican establishment have on elections in 2012? Will they be a net negative this time or will the memory of their antics have faded so that generic Republicans are once again the mythical independent fiscal conservatives?