The killing of Osama Bin Laden will affect the 2012 Presidential race, at the very least in the short term, but perhaps in the long term as well. Foreign policy victories like this can either help (see Saddam Hussein capture in 2003) or not matter at all (see victory in the Persian Gulf War in 1991) in a subsequent presidential election. So that is the grain of salt to take, but given the looming nature of Osama bin Laden, the horror he inflicted on our country, and the celebrations not unlike V-J day we saw last night and the almost universal reaction this morning, I think this has the potential to be a game changer for 2012.
It might very well be forgotten in short order if gas prices and unemployment don’t come down, but in the short term, perceptions about a President can change quickly in the mind of the fickle Independents. The barometer I often use for the mind of the fickle Independent is the reaction of professional sports talk show idiot (who I love to listen to though) Angelo Cataldi on 610 WIP in Philly. All they are talking about this morning is this news, not sports. He is overflowing with praise for President Obama and the “magnificent” speech he gave last night. He put together a 2 minute long song that is being played at every top of the hour that intersperses “Proud to be an American” with Obama’s speech last night.
Here are some statements from potential Republican presidential candidates. See if you can tell which ones are running for President and sense the potential for a political shift and which ones are not and could care less:
Mitt Romney: “This is a great victory for lovers of freedom and justice everywhere. Congratulations to our intelligence community, our military and the president. My thoughts are with the families of Osama bin Laden’s many thousands of victims, and the brave servicemen and women who have laid down their lives in pursuit of this murderous terrorist.”
Mike Huckabee: “It is unusual to celebrate a death, but today Americans and decent people the world over cheer the news that madman, murderer and terrorist Osama Bin Laden is dead… It has taken a long time for this monster to be brought to justice. Welcome to hell, bin Laden. Let us all hope that his demise will serve notice to Islamic radicals the world over that the United States will be relentless is tracking down and terminating those who would inflict terror, mayhem and death on any of our citizens.”
Tim Pawlenty: “This is terrific news for freedom and justice. In the hours after the 9/11 attacks, President Bush promised that America would bring Osama bin Laden to justice — and we did. I want to congratulate America’s armed forces and President Obama for a job well done. Let history show that the perseverance of the US military and the American people never wavered. America will never shrink from the fight and ultimately those who seek to harm us face only defeat. Today, justice is done, but the fight against radical Islamic terrorism is not yet over.”
Sarah Palin: “Thank you, American men and women in uniform. You are America’s finest and we are all so proud. Thank you for fighting against terrorism.”
Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty are quite obviously running for President (both have announced), and thus their statements include mentions of the President. Both Palin and Huckabee haven’t announced, and most likely won’t. In fact, I was struck with the “Palin”-ness of Huckabee’s response.