Possibly. And I’m not sure I like the direction it may be heading.
There seems to be an emerging consensus that all four Wilmington districts may survive redistricting. The alternative, which is possible, would be for Gerald Brady’s district to disappear. As it turns out, seniority would place Brady at a disadvantage amongst the Wilmington delegation. Stephanie Bolden, of course, has the least seniority, but her district is the sole minority-majority district in the City. Even should all four districts remain, Brady would be the most at risk, as he will have to head out even further into Rethug country. He should be worried, very worried. And that’s about the only positive to this entire plan: Either he loses his district or picks up more R’s.
Here’s why I don’t like this plan, and why I think it may be overreaching. Since none of the four city districts have anything close to the needed minimum population, the lines would have to move out. Most likely north for Dennis P. Williams, south for Bolden, south and west for Keeley, and north and west for Brady. These moves would require serious rejiggering of the Short and Heffernan districts north of the city, and would in no way solidify their Democratic status. I’m not even sure that the three Brandywine Hundred D districts could get their numbers without moving west of the Concord Pike (Rte. 202), meaning into more R-oriented areas. Yes, it’s possible that only 2 of the five R districts in the northwestern part of the state would survive, as opposed to the three out of five I had proposed. However, the tradeoff would be to make the Short, Heffernan, and Dennis E. Williams districts much more vulnerable to R challenges.
Legislators generally prefer the constituents they know as opposed to having to introduce themselves to a whole new group of constituents, even if it means that the registration numbers are a little less favorable. If, indeed, this plan is more than just one of several scenarios, then many incumbent D representatives, all over the map, will be facing starkly different constituencies. Not just the Brandywine Hundred reps, but there’d be a significant ripple effect all over NCC. J. J. Johnson and John Mitchell directly, and the other NCC D reps indirectly. Virtually all of them would have more new-to-the-district constituents than they’d like.
I suppose it’s possible to send both Dennis P. Williams and Gerald Brady west into R territory, and maybe even wipe out Greg Lavelle’s district entirely (Lavelle would be in one of those D districts and at a distinct disadvantage). But I think there is unnecessary risk in this plan as all three D districts in Brandywine Hundred would be weakened, and both Brady and Williams would be in more challenging districts. And virtually every D above the Canal would face significant changes to their district.
I previously wrote that the most important thing the House D’s could do during this redistricting is to lock in their advantage. I hope that they do that rather than getting greedy and giving the R’s a road map a couple of years down the line where they can retake the House.