Intriguing result from a new Gallup poll:
Fifty-two percent of Republicans, and an even stronger number of Tea Party supporters, support the creation of a major, third political party, underscoring the occasional tensions between grassroots conservatives and the GOP establishment.
An overall majority of Americans, 52 percent, said that a third political party was needed; the most profound shift has come among Republicans.
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Supporters of the Tea Party are even more likely to back a third party, the poll found. Sixty percent of Tea Party supporters back a third party, while 32 percent say the existing two parties are adequate. By contrast, 47 percent of Tea Party opponents said the bipartisan system is adequate, and 44 percent favored a third party.
If a third party became a reality, would it be an overall good thing for progressive politics? Let’s think of some pros and cons.
Pros
- The country would benefit from having a less insane conservative party. It would probably stop thins like holding the debt ceiling hostage and government shutdowns. It would probably ease up the logjam of presidential appointments.
- It would split the right, which would likely marginalize the hard right.
- Depending on how the parties split it might diminish the power of the culture wars.
- It’s possible the liberal/progressive voice could be stronger with less coalition-building needed in the caucus. How much smarter would the debt/deficit reduction talk be with the progressive plan getting more attention?
Cons
- The most likely split is into a hard right social conservative party, a center right corporatist party and a center left party. I don’t see this as giving progressives a bigger voice. The balance of power would be with the center right.
- A center right party is likely to pick up some current Blue Dogs. We can argue whether this is a good thing or a bad thing.
What do you think? Will an actual 3-party split occur? I think we saw signs in 2010 with Castle, Crist and Murkowski. If a split occurs, will it benefit the country and the progressive movement?