From David Plouffe’s statements, we know team Obama’s plan: 1) Allow the Republicans to nominate a nut bag. 2) Allow some Independants to drift over to the D side, and 3) Allow Dems to vote for Obama, because honestly, what else can they do?
It reminds me more of the Gore/Lieberman path to victory than the Obama/Biden ’08 path to victory, but on the plus side, it is a plan that is in keeping with the passive brand that team Obama has worked so hard to build up over the past few years. There is no jarring disconnect when you hear that plan. Obama basically has to be his cool, calm collected, middle-of-the-road self and let the GOP go bonkers. And while it is a safe bet that the GOP’s “free candy van” will creep everyone out,
….there are a few assumptions embedded in the team Obama strategy that are not such safe bets.
The biggest, and least safe assumption is that the indies at the “center” will break for Obama. That assumption is based on the false notion that people who regard themselves to be neither Republicans nor Democrats favor “moderation.” That’s a strange conclusion to draw from the last few elections. A much more reasonable conlcusion to draw is that the “center” is comprised of a bunch of bandwagon chasing losers who only want to vote for the person that they perceive as the “winner.” The notion that people have no strongly held opinions on current events will make a rational decision to vote for the advocate of the least offensive policies rings false to me. Not only that, but the 50% +1 electoral college strategy is is more likely to make Obama seem wishy-washy and values impaired than it is to make him seem reasonable. The loose cannon voters like candidates that are authentic and feisty, not mushy.
Although he pursued the middle, Bill Clinton’s feistiness allowed him to pull it off without seeming like a needy loser. I suppose team Obama is banking on the fact that their candidate has that same sort deep likability, or that enough of Obama’s fight will come out to please the empty-headed middle. Still, it is a risk to think that “the middle” so beloved by the DC villagers, is swayed by anything other than momentum. One tasty campaign snafu, amplified a million times by the media’s lazy tunnel vision could make the difference for these voters.
The other un-safe assumption built into team Obama’s strategy is the idea that Dems will vote for their candidate. While they certainly will not vote FOR the Republican, they might vote against another Obama term by staying home. I’m still waiting to see how Obama plans on appealing to non-centrists that will need to turn out on elections day. (Someone nudge me awake when he starts looking for my vote.) In the meantime Plouffe’s cavalier assumptions about equalling their ’08 numbers for teens, latinos and other occasional voting groups should give every Democrat pause.
So, what’s the worst that could happen? Team Obama chases a few counties in Florida and Ohio while ignoring the Dem base, then some slip up (a literal fall perhaps) and BANGO! We are looking at President Bachmann. That’s crazy, right? So, what’s the second worst that could happen? The second worst outcome (and the outcome that team Obama seem to be working for) is a narrow electoral college victory while losing more seats in the house and senate. The strategy team Obama is pursuing continues to give back all of the gains Democrats made during the last Presidential election. Where once we were competitive in the west and upper mid-west, the narrow electoral college strategy does not give down ticket Democrats anything to run on. It is a sad undoing of the spirit of ’08 and a pointless turning away from the proven 50 state strategy. Hello Florida recount. You were so fun the first time, we came back for more!!
Of course, there is another possibility. There is a clear path to victory that I’d love to see team Obama try.
They could reboot the 2008 campaign. Sure it would be tough, but I still think that it is doable. It would have to start with a big mea-culpa about not “changing Washington.” Admitting that he let himself get pushed around by the Dems in the Senate and the Republicans in congress and therefor didn’t pursue and aggressive enough agenda. He’d basically have to fire some inner circle people and run against Obama 2009, Obama 2010, and Obama most of 2011. That would be controversial, but he’d have the bully pulpit to start pointing the finger of blame where it belongs – at the horrendous Republicans. Their Presidential candidate will be helpful when it comes to making the case that Republicans are zealots who are flatly uninterested in sensibly governing. It is a message that America loved once, and they are thirsting to hear again.