Interestingly… Obama’s poll numbers are rising…

It seemed to me that the last week was the worst of Obama’s presidency, as far as the stock market, the debt ceiling and the conventional wisdom and just general political feeling are concerned. The jobs report was better than expected, and a positive economic sign, but it wasn’t stellar. It was not enough to calm a jittery stock market Friday. And then we had the dubious S&P downgrade, which is a tangible negative, sending the markets across the planet into a dive today.

And the President’s national poll numbers have taken a hit as a result, although Congressional Republicans are even worse off. But, as we all remember from the 2004 and 2008 elections, it is more important to look at the state polls than the national approval rating or the national horse race.

Gallup has just released a report regarding its findings from its polling from January until June of this year of each individual state. Gallup interviewed 90,000 American adults over the course of the last six month, and they found that the President is above 50% in approval in 16 states, including many important swing states:

The president did receive a 50% or higher approval rating in a few more states during the first half of 2011 than he did in 2010 — 16 compared with 12, along with the District of Columbia in both time periods. His approval rating crept back to the 50% level in Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the first part of 2011 after being below that level in those states in 2010.

Look at this map. The dark green states are all above 50%. That’s also where the President’s approval rating is above his national average over the last six months of 47%. The middle green states are where the President’s approval rating is at the average, or in the mid to high 40’s.

Iowa at 49%, Pennsylvania at 48%, Florida at 47%, and southern Democratic beachheads Virginia and North Carolina are at 46%. Shockingly, the President is doing unusually well in Arizona and Georgia too.

And PPP Polls tweets that the President is doing well in Colorado and Virginia too.

All throughout President Obama’s term, his approval ratings seems to be bolstered by his personal appeal rather than the economic statistics. Indeed, to this day, the majority of Americans blame the Republicans and former President Bush for our economic circumstances. And the President did win the public relations war during the debt ceiling and budget debate in that the overwhelming majority of Americans want a balanced approach of spending cuts, tax increases, and the protection of social security and medicare, or in other words, they agree with President Obama. So perhaps that explains his relatively good mid year report card from Gallup. Or maybe it’s this:

Obama took office at the cusp of a massive worldwide financial crisis that was bound to inflict severe damage on himself and his party. That he faced such difficult circumstances does not absolve him of blame for any failures. It sets the bar lower, but the bar still exists. How should we judge Obama against it? I would argue that both the legislative record of 2009-2010 and Obama’s personal popularity level exceed the expectation level — facing worse economic conditions than the last two Democratic presidents at a similar juncture, Obama is far more popular than Jimmy Carter and nearly as popular as Bill Clinton, and vastly more accomplished than both put together.