This week we saw little boomlets about Chris Christie and Paul Ryan joining the race. Karl Rove said it himself on Fox, in that he expected both to join the race. And then came stories that Christie was focus grouping an announcement speech, and rumors that Ryan was “seriously considering” getting in the race.
Yesterday, both of them personally said that they had no intention of getting into the race.
So why did the boomlets, or trial balloons happen?
Because the GOP Establishment is freaking the fuck out.
Wisconin Republican Primary, Public Policy Polling (8/12-14, Republican primary voters):
Michele Bachmann: 24
Rick Perry: 20
Mitt Romney: 17
Someone else/undecided: 11
Newt Gingrich: 10
Herman Cain: 7
Ron Paul: 6
Tim Pawlenty: 4
Jon Huntsman: 1
(MoE: ±5.2%)
Look, Romney has no chance. He may win New Hampshire, but that’s really it. Bachmann or Perry will win Iowa, come in second in NH, and then win South Carolina, so any momentum Romey gets from New Hampshire is blunted immediately. So your GOP nominee, whether it is Perry or Bachmann, will be insane, and not just the normal batshit politically insanity that all Republicans possess. Clinical insanity.
The GOP will try to stop at nothing to prevent their nomination. They will try to destroy Perry and Bachmann. Think about the GOP brushback given to Perry after his Bernacke treason / assassination comments. Have you ever seen the national Republican establishment go after one of their own prominent presidential candidates / big state governors in such a way?
And the Establishment will stop at nothing to get what they perceive as more palpatable candidates in the race. Hence, stories about Christie and Ryan. We may start hearing about Senator Thune of South Dakota. Hell, there have been even some stories about Jeb Bush, for God’s sake. Yes, running another Bush is more palpatable than uniting behind Perry or Bachmann. In the end
Eventually, though, the GOP will come to accept what has to happen: the crazies have to have their turn at the wheel. And only after the GOP car has been driven off the cliff can the GOP credibly say to them that crazy doesn’t win elections.