A new Gallup poll finds Mitt Romney barely leading Herman Cain for the GOP presidential nomination, 20% to 18%, with Rick Perry at 15%, Ron Paul at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7% and Michele Bachmann at 5%. The Republicans usually don’t have an actually competitive primary race. Usually, at this point in the election calendar, the national polls show the eventual nominee leading the race by 20 or more points. George W. Bush led the field in 1999 with 60%. Bob Dole was leading in 1995 with 46%. Poppy Bush in 1987 was leading with 41%. Saint Ronaldus Maximus was leading in 1979 with 41%, and Nixon led the field in 1967 and 1959 by wide margins. The exceptions are 1976, when there was a close race for the nomination between Ronald Reagan and President Ford, and the last two election cycles of 2008 and 2012. At this point in 2007, McCain had just 16%, but the GOP base eventually settled on him on Super Tuesday.
After having run in 2008, and basically tying for second with Huckabee behind McCain, Romney should be doing what his other “next in lines” previously: leading the field. But he is not. That’s why I am pretty convinced he won’t be the nominee. Especially after ads like this:
With an ad like this, and more polish on debate skills and substance, Perry can beat Romney easily. But for his horrible three debate performances, Perry would been leading Romney right now by double digits. Doubtful teabaggers who were for Perry once, or for Palin, are now temporarily parked in Herman Cain’s camp. But they will bolt to Perry if he dazzles tonight and during the rest of the campaign.