Wednesday Open Thread [12.7.11]
Yes, Newt is really the overwhelming front runner for the GOP nomination. It is still shocking to me.
NATIONAL (Gallup): Gingrich 37, Romney 22
NATIONAL (Poll Position): Gingrich 37, Romney 23
COLORADO (PPP): Gingrich 37, Romney 18
IOWA (ABC/WaPo): Gingrich 33, Paul 18, Romney 18, Perry 11
IOWA (CBS/NYT): Gingrich 31, Romney 17, Paul 16, Perry 11
IOWA (We Ask America–R): Gingrich 30, Romney 16, Paul 14, Bachmann 13
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Gingrich 51, Romney 14
SOUTH CAROLINA (Winthrop): Gingrich 38, Romney 22
Why does this both shock and please me:
NATIONAL (Daily Kos/SEIU by PPP): Obama easily defeats a Generic Republican 48-43, while is destroys Gingrich 50-42.
Once the RNC, Fox News, and CNN get finished rehabilitating Newt’s image, it will be a dead heat. I hope that we are all prepared for that eventuality.
Obama should practice saying “failed policies.”
The better people get to know Newt, the less they will like him. I’ve said this before, but the personality flaws Obama has are merely magnified in Gingrich. Carter, we Democrats like to conveniently forget, was a pious dick with no personal charm. He lost to a guy who, while claiming to be Christian, certainly wasn’t pious and was full of charm. If the GOP had countered instead with another cold-hearted Bible-thumper, Carter would have won a second term.
Sandusky arrested today.
Using Geezer’s Reflexive Property Theory of candidate picking, the Republicans should have picked a white woman with little charm and a thin resume. In other words, Bachmann or Palin
Find a warm, likeable Republican and you’ll find someone who could beat Obama. I am unaware of any warm, likeable Republican. George W. Bush could do a decent imitation of one long enough to beat Gore. By 2004, the only way the Democrats could lose was by picking an unlikeable stiff who made W. look like a self-made man by comparison. Which they did.
The “warm and likable” candidate in any race would defeat the cold and unlikable candidate every time. People vote based on gut feeling mixed with random nonsense most of the time.
Which kind of explains why Markell won. Carney has the charm of a dead fish.
A new batch of polls showed evidence of Newtmentum and shows him within 9% of Romney in New Hampshire.
Good job Republicans, going from awkward uncharismatic Romney to assholish Gingrich.
Lavelle not exactly retiring. Says he’s exploring other options.
“Other opportunities to serve in elected office exist, and I am actively considering them.”
So, he hasn’t ruled out the Senate yet, and the phrasing leaves open the possibility of a statewide race.
Don’t forget that Greg grew up politically through CCOBH — and there will be races for County Exec and County Council President next year.
We may not have seen the last of him.
Warren jumps ahead of Brown in new Massachusetts Senate poll. 49%-42%.
The poll has a relatively small sample size: 505 registered voters. But it’s a 10 point swing from the last time this pollster (UMass-Lowell/Princeton Survey Research) sampled this race. And it’s in line with the trend in Warren’s direction.
Just as importantly, this race is crystalizing the core issues the 2012 cycle looks set to turn on — finance vs. main street, wealth and income inequality, the pros and cons of survival of the fittest economics.
If Warren can get traction against Brown with her unalloyed version of this message, that will cast a shadow over as yet unformed races across the nation.
Josh Marshall
-message to John Carney. Sound more like a Democrat and be popular.