If the House Republicans allow the middle class tax cut to expire, the House will be in Democratic hands this time next year.
Why do I say that?:
A short time ago Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) said, “It angers me that House Republicans would rather continue playing politics than find solutions.” Yesterday newly-appointed Republican Senator Dean Heller (NV) similarly lambasted his former House colleagues: “There is no reason to hold up the short-term extension while a more comprehensive deal is being worked out. What is playing out in Washington, D.C., this week is about political leverage, not about what’s good for the American people.” (Heller was actually in the House until earlier this year.)
Wipe away all the personal details. Brown and Heller are running for re/election next year. Most of the Republicans in the House are in safe Republican districts. (Paradoxically, a good number of them in swing districts are some of the most extreme because they’re the ones who got washed in on the 2010 tide.) The key here is that if you have significant political exposure to swing voters (or just loosely affiliated voters), you can see that being on the wrong side of this payroll tax debate is toxic.
Allowing this this tax cut to expire is political suicide, and Republican politicians running statewide next year (i.e. Senators, Governors, etc) know it. Hence the shockingly bipartisan Senate vote (89-10) and the harsh and often unheard of Senate Republican criticism of House Republicans. But most of the House Republicans don’t care. As TPM notes above, these are radical teabaggers in safe seats.
But what makes them dumb and ignorant is that their margin of majority, about 25-40 seats, are in swing competitive districts that swung Democratic in 2006 and 2008 and swung Republican in 2010. They all will swing back Democratic in 2012. So thanks GOP. Thanks for being mean-spirited, horribly evil, and woefully ignorant all at the same time.