The 62 District Strategy [2012]

Alright, 2012 is here, and it time to focus on the 2012 Legislative elections. Because most often than not, state legislative races are ignored, even though they are our most direct connection to democracy, as those we elect from our respective districts in the House and Senate are our neighbors (or at least they are supposed to be). So we are going to begin to familiarize ourselves with each district and who currently represents that district. Now, it is early enough in the calendar that we don’t yet know if many of the Representatives and Senators are going to run for reelection, or if they will face challengers in their efforts to get reelected.

In 2012, all seats in the General Assembly are up for election. All 21 Senators. All 41 Representatives. The reason for this is because we have just drawn up new districts in both chambers as a result of population changes over the last 10 years, as indicated by the 2010 census. As a result, Kent and Sussex Counties have each gained a House seat, and the Sussex County gains a Senate seat. It’s ironic, since the more conservative citizens of the downstate counties gain representation as a result of a constitutionally mandated Census that they decried as a unconstitutionally fascist tool of the evil Obama Administration. But I digress…

Here is a map of the new House Districts with their current party representation indicated by the colors red (Republican) and blue (Democratic), with the 11th District in southern New Castle County and northern Kent County and the 20th District in Sussex County are colored purple as no one is currently representing these newly created districts.

In the chart above, some explanation: I listed Dennis P. Williams as running for reelection, because, even though he is running for Mayor of Wilmington, I think he has not explicitly said he is not running for reelection to the House, yet. I may be wrong though. So the 1st RD may be an open seat if Williams retires, but a safe Democratic one nonetheless. I don’t have any information on any other Representatives retiring yet. There is a possibility that Helene Keeley will not run for reelection and instead run for Senate, but more on that in a second. Let us know in the comments if you know different.

I only list the new 11th and 20th Districts and Michael Ramone’s 21st RD as competitive, only because we have no idea who is running against the various incumbents yet in the other districts. With respect to Ramone, the new 21st RD is more competitive after redistricting, and he may face a tough race this fall.

The Democrats hold a 26-15 majority in the House, and there are no signs yet that this majority is in danger. The Republicans would need to pick up 6 seats to reach 21, enough for a majority.

Now onto the Senate:

Senator Marshall is retiring, also to run for Mayor of Wilmington, although there have been noises that he may change his mind. Until he does, I am listing him as retiring, with his 3rd SD an open seat. Democrat Eric Anderson has already announced that he is running for the seat, and Helene Keeley may also seek a promotion, so I have listed both on the chart. This is a safe Democratic seat no matter what.

In the 11th SD, Tony Deluca has a primary race with Attorney Bryan Townsend, and Christine O’Donnell thug Evan Queitsch will seek the Republican nomination to face the winner of the Deluca-Townsend primary. This is a safe Democratic seat no matter what as well. Evan Queitsch, like his mentor, will never win an election in Delaware for anything.

In the 4th SD, Mike Katz got royally screwed by Deluca for daring to stand against him in the leadership election, as, after redistricting, his district got much more Republican. In the House, Minority Leader Greg Lavelle’s 11th RD was moved downstate and he was placed in Deborah Hudson’s 12th RD. So he announced he would not primary Hudson, but he has not yet announced that he would seek a promotion to the Senate. If he did, and I would be shocked if he didn’t, he would be challenging Katz in the 4th. And if Lavelle did challenge Katz, it would be a tossup race, if not a Lean Republican race given the new Republican territory that the 4th SD now covers.

The new 6th SD in Sussex County is an open seat and its demographics make for a competitive race. Andy Staton is already running for the Democrats, and Ernie Lopez and failed 2010 Congressional nominee Glen Urquhart are running for the Republicans. If Urquhart wins the primary, I dare say this race leans Democratic.

In the 12th SD, Dori Connor was given more Democratic territory to represent, and thus I have list her race as competitive accordingly. But it will depend on who runs against her. In the 8th SD, Tony Deluca also punished both David Sokola and Liane Sorenson for voting for Mike Katz in the leadership election by placing the Democrat and Republican in the same district. Thus, this is a competitive race.

Finally, if either Senators Bunting or Venables retires downstate in the 20th and 21st SDs, respectively, then these districts become instant Republican pickup opportunities, and I would say that both would lean Republican no matter who runs for either party.

The Senate currently stands at 14 Democrats and 7 Republicans. The GOP would need to pickup 4 seats to gain the majority, and given redistricting and the treasonous move by Tony Deluca to punish his party for his own personal vengeance, the GOP finally, after many years, may have the opportunity to gain control of the upper chamber. Indeed, if they pick up the 4th, the 8th and the new 6th SDs, as they will probably be favored to do, they would only need one more seat to win control. So the Democrats better pray that neither Bunting and Venables retire, as that would give the GOP the one seat they need.

With regard to retirements, I have only heard the possibility that Senator McBride might retire, but that is only rumor. Any one heard anything more?