Prediction Thread For Tonight’s Republican Debate
Expectations are high for tonight’s debate, so let’s discuss what might happen.
Amazingly, tonight looks like it may be the first time the frontrunner, Romney, faces serious attack. Not sure why he was given a pass until now, and even with the field suddenly realizing they’ve given Romney the advantage, it may be too late to derail what they created.
With that said, here’s what I’m looking (hoping?) for:
Let Newt be Newt
There’s nothing more frightening than an enraged Newt Gingrich. Someone described him as a suicide bomber and I find the description dead on. In Newt’s world, if Newt can’t win then nobody will. Combine that with the fact that this is personal. He’s furious with Romney and the PACs under his control. Furious enough to blow up the entire primary and the chance for a Republican to win the White House? If given the right opening tonight… you betcha.
Santorum
Santorum has done well in debates. Not sure if this is because he’s a decent debater, or simply that he was such a long shot that he didn’t get much of the spotlight. Tonight we’ll see if he thrives under the attention. There are many pitfalls in his path, but a few that jump out at me are his wanting to essentially ban contraception, stating that people with preexisting health conditions should pay more for health care, and that social security benefits should be cut for seniors already receiving benefits. He may very well find his time tonight is spent defending himself rather than going after Romney.
Romney
I expect he’ll be defending his time and his bogus job creation numbers at Bain Capital. I can only hope he trots out his “Corporations are people, my friends” line. His goal tonight should be to appear human, but I fear that is a bar too high for Mitt. He’s also going to have to face countless flip-flopping charges (all of which are true), assaults on Romneycare, and the claims that he’s a moderate. And while being a moderate may help him in New Hampshire he can’t afford to take his eye off South Carolina. It’s obvious he wants to wrap this thing up, but he’ll need those social conservatives in SC to achieve that goal. I expect Mitt will have to move further right which will hurt him in the general. He’s definitely walking a tightrope. I also doubt we’ll hear a lot about his policies due to the fact that he’ll be playing defense tonight against a field of candidates with nothing to lose. Dangerous waters, indeed.
Paul
I expect Paul will do what Paul does best. Go after everyone and highlight how he is the un-cola. In the end, Coke and Pepsi always beat 7-Up, but Paul and his supporters don’t care. Tonight I expect Paul will be pretty much the same as always with a few added attacks spread equally over all the candidates. Paul will try to help Paul, unlike Newt who is willing to blow up the entire primary.
Perry
Perry is on a redemption campaign. His only goal is to not look like an idiot… again. He’s a horrible debater and knows it. What he doesn’t know how to do is turn this weakness into a strength. Besides, tonight’s debate for Perry has nothing to do with New Hampshire and everything to do with South Carolina. Expect a lot of God, guns and gays talk from him.
Huntsman
Yawn. I still haven’t figured out why he’s still in the race. At first, I thought his goal was to run as a moderate with an eye on 2016. Then he went all climate change denier. Did he honestly think that would help him? He’s Mitt-lite, and we already know the electorate doesn’t like Mitt. I predict he will be the next one to drop out of the race. New Hampshire is his last stand. If he can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere.
I still think Romney will end up being the nominee, so let me state in advance tonight’s biggest loser… The Tea Party.
What do you think will happen tonight? And has everyone bought their popcorn?
Awesome post, Pandora!!!! Santorum and Gingrich are emboldened, so that will be fun to see.
The key I am looking for is whether all the conservative candidates focus entirely on Romney, rather than each other. If they do that, Romney may not be the nominee. If they don’t, he will.
Thanks, DD! I’ve been thinking about this debate a lot. Here’s the deal: I’m not sure if the conservative candidates can deny Romney the nomination even if all of them focus entirely on him. Romney’s 25% support is solid. They won’t hurt him in the primary because 98% of Romney supporters won’t turn to anyone else. The general will be his problem.
The only way to hurt Romney in the primary is for all but one of the conservative candidates to drop out. If that doesn’t happen, Romney will continue to win primaries (and the nomination) with 25% – 40% of the vote.
Very nice job, P!
Personally, I’m still stunned that the GOP Clown Car still has any gas in it, but there you go.
The way this is set up, you can see the real divisions still in the Republican Party — Romney representing the elite conservatives, Perry (badly)representing the Tea Party elites, and Santorum working for the social conservatives. It ought to be quite the circular firing squad tonite. Because even though I think Romney will wrap this thing up by Super Tuesday, I suspect that the teajadis and social conservatives want to extract as many pounds of flesh as possible. And as long as they can keep him pandering to them, the longer he can’t work at being a centrist and the more tea bag fodder to shoot him with.
The fun begins when Romney wraps it up and we watch all of the non-Romney crowd suck it up and pretend he was their guy all along.
For most if not all these candidates, the only way they can slow down Romney is to stay in the campaign past their expiration date.
With all due respect Pandora–Huntsman is hardly a Mitt-lite. He’s a seasoned businessman, w/ incredible diplomatic ties to China, and from an extremely philanthropic family here. President Obama saw wisely enough to send him to China in hopes of creating the very “unknown” candidate factor most Americans are judging now. It is unfortunate–but he’ll be back–he’s just taking a walk this round!
And he has also pandered to the worst of the tea party and radical right, changing his positions to do so. That is how he is like Mitt Romney.
In his former incarnation, the two term reasonable telegenic popular Republican Governor from Utah is who President Obama sent to China, and it was a political Machiavellian move on the President’s part.
Where Huntsman went wrong is not serving out a full term as Ambassador, and then waiting until 2016. He would have been formidable, if not the favorite four years from now if he had done so.
His “taking a walk” now has damaged him, maybe permanently.
Santorum and Newt are still trying to win the not-Romney title. I think they might still forget to attack Romney.
And if that happens, Romney wins
Here’s my prediction:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6LsXgMYX4k&feature=related
My prediction: The debate won’t be nearly as funny and entertaining now that Michelle has been voted off Wingnut Island.
Newt implodes, Santorum spends too much time explaining himself, Perry spends too much time defending himself, Huntsman gives a great big hello to his new friends in NH, Paul does respectfully well if the crowd is well-reasoned, and Romney remains civil, polite, with an occasional self-depracating remark paced evenly w/ a well placed pun or jocular indictment of the current administration.
Newt pulled a Pawlenty last night chickened out on Mitt.No fireworks except for Paul who called little Ricky a corupt Poll.He also called Newt a chicken hawk along with the other’s on the panel who want to go to war but avoid it for themselves and their family As for Mitt’s 5 Sons who Mitt stated during his last run had more important things like helping him to get elected than serving their country in Iraq or Afghan.That is one of the biggest problems I have with Mitt and his ilk they wear the American flag in their lapels but when it comes to wars which they love Let Others serve is their motto. I thought Paul’s best line was when Newt said he was married and had a child was the reason he didn’t serve his country and Paul’s response was that when he was called he was also married and had two children but served. All in All it was one dull event even ABC saw that and cut it short thank god.
George Stephanopoulos is a biased hack, but who cares because Paul Scholes has come out of retirement and is on the bench for today’s derby.
Another fantasy post by Pandora. Pandora, you should really wake up and realize that you were just having a dream, (or for you, a nightmare). And that there is practically not a word of truth in this post. You really live in a fantasy world, not sure how you get through the day.