A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina has Mitt Romney leading, but not as big of a lead as with other recent polls.
Romney leads with 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum at 19%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1%.
Now, keep in mind that South Carolina is the LAST chance for any of these horrible alternatives to Romney to pull off a win. If Romney wins South Carolina, the nomination is his. Remember, that no nominee in an open primary on the GOP side has ever captured the trifecta of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In 2000, Bush won Iowa and SC, but McCain won New Hampshire. In 2008, Huckabee won Iowa, and McCain won New Hampshire and SC. In 1996, Dole won Iowa and SC, while Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire. In 1988, Bush won New Hampshire and SC, while Dole won Iowa. In 1980, Bush won Iowa, and Reagan won NH and SC. In 1976, Reagan won SC, while Ford won Iowa and NH. And recall, that mostly Republican primaries are boring affairs where the lemmings fall in line quickly behind the establishment “next in line” candidate. It was never in doubt that Bush 41, Dole or Bush were going to be the nominees in the 88, 96 or 00 races. It was never in doubt that Reagan was going to the nominee in 80.
So if Romney wins SC, it is all over.
So this close poll result offers a ray of hope for those of us who either long for a bloody GOP primary or hate Romney:
“There are two things that taken together might make it possible for Santorum to upset Romney in South Carolina. The first is both Gingrich and Perry dropping out. Gingrich’s voters prefer Santorum over Romney 52-37 and Perry’s do by a 54-41 margin. Either of them dropping out would give Santorum a big boost. The other thing that would give Santorum the potential for an upset is a Jim DeMint endorsement. 31% of voters say his nod would make them more likely to vote for a candidate.”
So if the Non-Romneys can get their act together and sacrifice all but one of them for the cause, and then if Demint will stick to his tea party rhetoric, we might be saved from a coronation.
Ahh… but not so fast:
Just out from the Suffolk daily tracking poll …
For the fourth day in a row, Mitt Romney has fallen in overnight tracking, and Rick Santorum has dropped into fifth place among likely voters in the Jan. 10 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, according to the latest Suffolk University/7News two-day tracking poll.
Ron Paul is gaining on Romney, while Jon Huntsman has rallied into third place.
Romney dropped 4 percentage points overnight to 35 percent. The former Massachusetts governor still holds a 15 point lead, but his margin has declined by 8 percentage points since last Tuesday, when 43 percent of likely Republican voters backed Romney.