The new year sees some firming up of plans for this race, and there has been some intersting movement since the last time we did this, in the Fall. For those of you following the broader narrative, you can see the first Cattle Call from 2010.
Rep. Dennis P. Williams, State Representative 
The botched and forced announcement back in October/November probably moved up his timetable some, and left him with a fair amount of patching up relationships with Blunt supporters. He had a hastily put together announcement in mid-November and since then has been mostly making calls and trying to look inevitable.
Rev. Derrick Johnson, pastor of Joshua Harvest Church
I’d still consider this a “profile management” run by the Rev. Johnson — who is looking to burnish his profile and get in the conversation. He does have a small constituency, and some other (more personal) issues. Not a serious candidate IMO.
Steve Martelli, City Councilman
I think that Martelli is definitely out, but there is still some time to give it a try.
Kevin Kelley, City Councilman
Last time we did this, I noted that Kelley has been working really hard to talk with stakeholders (especially in neighborhoods) all over the city. Certainly, he’s done way more than Williams on this front, at least. He will formally announce today, in two events in the city: one at 11AM at Girls, Inc., and the other at 7PM at the H. Fletcher Brown Boys Club.
Hanifa Shabazz, City Councilwoman
Still out, I’m sure.
Norman Griffiths, City Council President
No one seems to have heard Griffiths commit to anything yet — the Mayor’s race or another run at the President for City Council.
Charles “Bud” Freel, At-Large City Councilman
Definitely not running for Mayor.
Bill Montgomery, Mayor Baker’s Chief of Staff
Got in when it was clear Calistro was working at running. He’s made all of the calls and told the world his hat was in. It is still remarkable to me that doesn’t think he’ll have to be accountable for the Baker-era decisions that have been unpopular among the folks he expects to vote for him. Interesting observation — Montgomery and is wife have new Facebook presences and are friending everyone in sight. There is an invite for a formal announcement for Mayor on Facebook and as of this writing, (Sunday AM), plenty of city employees are responding yes. And the announcement is at The Baby Grand. People in Wilmington neighborhoods, take note.
Ted Blunt, former City Council President
Definitely out. No idea if he will end up supporting anyone.
Senator Bob Marshall, State Senator
Yeah, he’s in. But other than showing up at a Gun Buy-back press event in December, no one has seen him.
Paul Calistro, Director of West End House
Definitely out. One of his goals for running was that West End Neighborhood House couldn’t be hurt by his campaigning. Personnel changes at West End meant that he needed to be more than full-time here, so he decided for his day job. Good for West End, unhappy news for the rest of us.
Late Edit: Scott Spencer
Spencer has definitely declared recently (don’t know if this was a media announcement or a formal event) and even has a website. You’ll remember Spencer from his run at the Congressional seat now held by John Carney — he got as far as declaring and talking to people but never actually filed for it. His website has some basic ideas listed — but he has quite a ways to go to convince folks that he gets both the big picture and its gritty details and has some vision of a path forward.
Mike Brown, At-Large City Councilman
No longer running as a Republican in a Blue City, notwithstanding his endorsement from Colin Bonini. Brown announced last week that he was dropping out of the race, and blamed the media for telling people how hard it wold be for an R to win in the city for his lackluster fundraising. What Brown should have done was unloaded on his party — who showed up for the photo ops and never delivered on the funds. People like Charlie Copeland, Rakestraw and others of the Greenville crowd showed up for Brown’s fundraiser (in November?) at the Public House. They really should have helped him more here — Brown was dutifully enthusiastic about carrying the torch for Castle AND O’Donnell in the city in 2010. He didn’t really need to do that since it would never have made any difference to his council seat. Adding, though, that Brown has been working on this campaign for at least two years. I’d bet that in addition to the lackluster fundraising, he may have learned something about his reputation in the city along the way.
Tyler Nixon, Perpetual Candidate
No idea what he is planning to do and it probably doesn’t matter.
Robert Bovell, Bailbondsman and Perpetual Candidate
No idea what he is planning to do and it probably doesn’t matter.
John Rago, Mayor Baker’s Communications Director was long in the speculation column, but seems to not be in it at all.
So where does that leave us? Probably not too far from where we started. In a year when there is remarkable energy for genuine change in city government, we’re left with mostly business as usual. Of all of them, Kelley is the most articulate on the city’s issues and long term needs, but I’m not so certain of how the city’s business community sees him. Williams has alot to get up to speed on and I’m expecting alot of aggressive handwaving in the direction of some of our issues with little long term vision of building from the City’s considerable assets. Montgomery is at Ground Zero of the current lack of vision, so I’m not expecting more than handwaving from him, either. Handwaving accompanied with alot of work explaining how it is that he can different from the current status quo while being the current status quo. And I’ll point out — the three people left with the best chance at the job are currently government employees who remarkably can get both campaigning and their day jobs done. As for Republicans — there was real chance of getting some attention this year and they couldn’t 1) support their candidate or 2) come up with one they could support. So I guess you could say it is business as usual for the Rs in the city, too.
One thing that looks true is that the City Council may undergo pretty big turnover — and perhaps the game for City folks who want the city to get to its potential is to invest in making sure that the City Council is able to operate as a co-equal branch of the government instead of its rubber stamp mode. Because unless Kelley somehow wins this thing, neighborhoods are not going to be winners with the viable candidates left.
Fundraising reports are due in for all of them this month. What those reports have to say about how well candidates have tapped into networks will be very interesting indeed.