What’s Ron Paul’s Delegate Plan?
Delegates, baby. Delegates.
Since the Tea Party and the Christian Coalition can’t get their act together, and have proven they aren’t a force to be reckoned with, we move onto the only candidate that can throw a monkey wrench in Romney’s inevitable nomination.
Delegates, baby. Delegates.
Charles Pierce spells it out:
Which leaves us with the fascinating question of Dr. Ron Paul. He finished a decent second last night, crushing the campaign of Jon Huntsman. He is in an odd place. He is not a contender for the nomination in any real sense. However, he can continue to move through the cycle, not seeking conventional success, but piling up delegates pledged only to him. (If the rumors around Manchester on Tuesday night are true, and Paul’s campaign has managed to raise $10 million over the past few days, then he can go on forever. That amount of money to his campaign is $100 million to a more conventional one.) This will give him a center of personal power with which Willard, and the rest of the party, will have to find some way to cope. Paul has stubbornly — and shrewdly — refused to state categorically that he will not bolt the party in the general election. He can string the whole business along, talking in his giddy survivalist code about “fiat money,” and nobody will be in any position to take him on. He is going to stay on his own hook; in 2008, across the river in Minneapolis, Paul set up his own convention in opposition to the Republican National Convention. He can do whatever mischief he wants from now until the end of the summer, and nobody’s in any position to make him stop.
There’s talk of Paul falling in line for Rand’s political benefit, but that school of thought relies on painting Ron Paul as a selfless father willing to step aside for the sake of his son. I’m not so sure about this school of thought. History is filled with plenty of fathers (and mothers) who don’t put their children first, and while I don’t think Papa Paul wants to hurt Baby Paul’s political future he may end up doing just that in the name of his movement.
Enough of my pop psychology. We’re talking about Paul’s delegates and what he’ll do with them. Any theories?
Best case: Brokered convention with lots of (philosophical, not literal) blood on the floor.
Worst case: Paul trades his delegates for some magic beans and a better TV slot for his crazy-ass convention speech.
What will Probably Happen? Karl Rove still has access to the RNC’s black ops assassination squad. I’ll look for Paul’s campaign bus to loose its brakes.
I’m not sure Ron Paul would want to speak at the Convention. And would Paul’s supporters settle for a speech? Given their exuberance I’m not seeing this end with a speech.
Paul’s supporters are an interesting mix. Romney can’t count on all those voters in the general. So… does the GOP end up with Paul delegates on the convention floor who have no intention of voting for Mitt in the general. Mayhem potential runs high.
Yeah the GOP will probably have to give Paul much more than a speech.
This is a movement. If he threatens a 3rd party run, he will have a lot of power at the convention.
I agree, Scott, but what I can’t figure out is what Paul will demand.
I think the only thing that could make the Paulbots vote for Romney is Ron Paul on the ticket. Which is sort of unthinkable even from a Republican point of view.
One Ron Paul website that I looked at pointed out that over 850 of the Republican primary delegates will be picked in states that have some type of “open” primary (as opposed to a closed primary where only existing party members can vote). The “plan” is for Paulistas to come out in droves to win those delegates.
BTW – that is also Huntsman’s plan.