Game Change
This is a massively devastating loss for Mitt Romney. The candidate that conventional wisdom says would be most competitive against President Obama in the general election just had his hat handed to him. But this past week to two weeks have changed my mind on that, the conventional wisdom. I now believe, if things stay as they are, and especially if the economy continues to improve, that no Republican candidate currently running will beat Obama in the general. Romney is fatally damaged by Bain Capital and his tax returns. President Obama may actually want to face Romney and depict him as the poster boy for the 1%, because he is.
And then you have Newt Gingrich, who favorability ratings nationwide as Palinesque, if not worse. They are at -32 last time I checked. That is not only toxic to Gingrich, it will bring the whole GOP down. I just saw Haley Barbour quoted on Twitter saying that he doesn’t want to have Gingrich as the nominee because he likes having a Republican Speaker of the House, meaning of course if Gingrich is the nominee, the Democrats will sweep the GOP out of majority control. And he is right. So Gingrich is not a general election threat.
But he is now a massive threat to Mitt Romney. Conservatives just can’t stomach the idea of Mitt Romney as their standard bearer. They can’t make the case for Romney with a straight face. I have spoken often of my radically conservative friend who has said to me on more than one occasion that if Mitt Romney is the nominee, not only will he lose to Obama, but that he would not vote for him.
Before this week, before Newtmentum II, you saw establishment types settling for Romney while conservatives where split between Santorum, Gingrich, Paul and Perry. Perry is gone. Santorum has collapsed and will probably drop out tomorrow, especially if he finishes 4th tonight in a state he should have been competitive in. Paul really is a nonfactor among radical social conservatives. That leaves Gingrich, who caught fire in the debates this week, and lit the fire in the radical conservative heart.
They now have their candidate.
Could Romney still win the nomination? Sure. But he better win Florida, and that is what we will watch in the coming week.
And if he is the nominee, do the conservatives come around to him and vote for him in the fall. Well, they did before with McCain in 2008, and with Dole in 1996. Two establishment and “less than conservative” (in the eyes of the radicals) nominees. And maybe they will again, but I feel it is different this time. Maybe their hatred of Obama will unite them, but I sense this time, after being forced to swallow McCain last time, they won’t unite.
Put yourselves in their shoes. Imagine it is 2004 and this was our array of candidates against Bush: Dennis Kucinich, Al Sharpton, James Trafficant, and Joe Lieberman. And we are told by the “establishment” of the Democratic Party that we must support Joe Lieberman because he is the only one who can beat Bush. Lieberman being so vehemently pro-Iraq War is roughly analogous to Romney’s pro-Romneycare/Obamacare stance. Yeah, Kerry also voted for the war and was doing back flips in 2004 to distance himself, but we didn’t hate Kerry. We hated Lieberman. They hate Romney. I don’t think we would turn out in 2004 to support Lieberman. I don’t think they will turn out either.
They instead are turning to a disgraced bomb thrower, because at least he throws bombs. Kind of like our attraction to Howard Dean back in 2003-4, but in only in the sense that Dean was an anti-establishment fighter, the only one who was attacking Bush the way we would attack him. We probably knew then, in the back our minds, or at least in hindsight, that Dean wouldn’t beat Bush. But we wanted a fighter.
I suspect the radicals on the right know, if they are honest, that pigs will fly before this nation elects Newt Gingrich. But they want someone to denigrate Obama, to call him the Food Stamp President, to insult him.
The question that remains now is can the GOP Establishment kill off Gingrich the way the Dem Establishment killed Dean. I don’t know anymore.
Mitt Romney is the biggest threat to Mitt Romney. He simply has no answer for Bain and for his taxes. Seriously, he’s got nothing… other than “everyone’s jealous.”
What is his campaign team doing? These are not surprise questions. Romney, and team, are amateurs.
Via Doug at Balloon Juice:
Nice post. I get the Newt comparison to Dean up to a point. In the end, elections are emotional, not intellectual exercises. When you don’t feel like your side has much of a chance, it makes perfect sense to pick the candidate that can fire up the troops and keep the distinctions crisp.
If Newt gets the nomination he’ll lose to Obama by less than Romney would have.
You think that because Newt will energize the conservative base. But how many Romney establishment Republicans will stay home? And how many independents who might have voted for Romney will instead vote for Obama?
This man has a favorability rating that is underwater by 32 points. That has NEVER happened, to have a major party nominee less popular than Satan.
Just as Dean would have lost to bush by less than Kerry did.
Kerry barely lost. 51-49.
Dean probably would have lost by a bigger margin in my opinion.
Do women vote in S.C.? I knew Newt would win SC, but Gingrich as the party’s designee leaves alot of women squeamish. In the words of my daughters “he’s a creeper”. I have to agree. All SC proved is, it’s anybody’s game…so they all better be on theirs the next go round. I guess the Dems will just have to sit thru another round of speed dating w/ Republican voters. Sorry to hold you up.
No, no Joanne. We Democrats are absolutely loving this, especially when it appeared less than two weeks ago that Romney was marching uncontested to the nomination. We absolutely love a much longer primary fight that fatally damages both possible GOP nominees. So don’t worry about us.
We’re fine.
Hope Santorum sticks around for a while longer. Despite today’s weak showing, I don’t expect Paul to disappear. He’s finally got the stage he longed for.
With four of them bashing each other, it’s rather like watching the bumper cars at Funland in Rehoboth.
Keep it up, GOP.
I almost feel sorry for the GOP… Naahhh. They deserve each other.
Newt is doing his victory speech right now. CNN has it. MSNBC has it. Fox is talking about “combat stress” in Iraq War vets. Fox is not covering the South Carolina primary. What does that say about the Republican establishment?
I agree with the overwhelming sentiment on here and have been rooting for Newt to win the nomination since November. However, a word of caution: Democrats were rooting to run against seemingly weaker Republican candidate Reagan in 1980.
“Fox is not covering the South Carolina primary.”
Fox plays for corporate America. Don’t expect anything fair or balanced there.
The 1% is one with Romney, but not Gingrich. He scares them even more than Obama does.
Here’s an amazing trick pulled off by Fox News: Why is it that the average low income Fox viewer believes that raising taxes on the top 1% is a terrible idea?
Mr. Family Values hasn’t locked it up yet. But he’s given the Not Rmoney crowd a little time to coalesce and time for the Not Rmoney crowd to beat up Rmoney a little more.
Have you seen Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’ press release on this?
Harsh, harsh baby.
Anyone who goes into a state with a significant double digit lead yet ends up losing that support in a week, is someone who is failing to connect.
Rmoney is ahead in the polls until he arrives in the state and starts campaigning. Perhaps he should avoid Florida?
One of the best descriptive comment lines ever written in the Delaware Media…
With four of them bashing each other, it’s rather like watching the bumper cars at Funland in Rehoboth.
Sorry to bust the thread, but that was just beautiful……. It’s something only a true Delawarean could ever understand.
Love me some DW-S, and I love the line that the Dems are taking.
It just occurred to me that Mormons should come over to the Democratic party and join the rest of us pariahs and outsiders. They’d be treated like full fledged Americans, and we’d gain a bunch of designated drivers.
Hey, Ive got some great ad ideas for Mitt’s SUPER PAC . 1)Picture of Clarrisa with caption”First Lady???” under it .Simple and to the point . 2) Video of look-alike couple in bed(Newt and Clarrisa) with Newt on phone to wife #2 saying “But honey, Clarrisa doesen’t mind” .
When it comes to the south it’s OPEN MARRIAGE 1 Magic Underwear 0
Question of the Day Do you think that Newt and Clarrisa were hoping for a THREE SOME ????
This Republican primary has been the Democrats’ dream come true. Obama will either go against the poster boy of the 1% (after having the Bain attacks validated by Republicans, thanks Newt, thanks Perry) or against a politician who is extremely unpopular. Amazing!
I bathe in their bitter tears.
I don’t think we should discount the possibility of a brokered GOP convention, which could nominate the likes of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, or Marco Rubio, none of whom have the baggage of Rmoney or Nasty Newt.
Btw, Newt’s current wife’s name is Callista.
“Bobby Jindahl to be President” is the most actively traded political stock on intrade right now. That doesn’t mean much in itself because the volume is so low. It does mean that more people bought shares of Jindahl than Jeb Bush or Chris Christie over the past few hours.
LET NEWT APPROVE THE QUESTIONS
That’s right, I say at the next gop debate in Florida let’s let Newt approve the questions in advance. Since during the course of the debates, Newt seems to be taking exception to many of the questions asked. After all, Newt is the big idea man, and these piddly questions about his integrity here on earth are getting in the way of his big ideas like building colonies on the moon. And since the audiences seem to cheer wildly, every time Newt scolds the media for asking their silly questions about Newt’s extra-marital affairs, or his congressional ethics violations, I am sure they would be in full agreement with this new policy. I don’t even think the other candidates would mind because it would leave more time for talking about their own big ideas for getting the country back on track. And what the heck, maybe it would give Newt enough time to fill us in on the details of this moon colony thing. Plus, if Newt were to win the gop nomination (heaven forbid) I am sure he could convince the DNC, as well as the media, not to challenge him on his integrity.