Santormentum II: The Lubrication

Are we really going to experience Santormentum II? We have three contests today and Public Policy Polling has polled them all: the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses, and a non-binding Missouri primary in which Newt Gingrich did not make the ballot. That fact has made Santorum the defacto conservative candidate for all right wing radicals, and proves that if one of the two Non-Romneys drop out, the right wing radicals could easily beat Romney.

So we can explain Santorum’s surge in Missouri, where he leads Romney 45% to 32%, with Ron Paul at 19%. But what about Minnesota, where he leads Romney 33% to 24%, with Gingrich at 22% and Paul at 20%? Minnesota is the land of Michelle Bachmann, so maybe the conservatives up there are more crazier than usual. And what about Colorado, where Santorum has bubbled up into second place at 27%, while Romney leads with 37%, with Gingrich in third at 21% and Paul at 20%.

Gingrich has his diehard supporters, who comprise between 20 and 22% of the primary electorate. But he was damaged beyond repair for the general electorate before Romney spent millions making him unacceptable to the Republican base. So Gingrich is probably done, despite his protestations to the contrary. Paul has his 20% but he is never going to be the GOP nominee. So we are left with Santorum and Romney. If the Republican base is really dead set against having Romney as their nominee, then their only choice is Santorum. And these polls are maybe finally pointing to that realization among the Republican base.

And Santorum is a perfectly fine candidate. Look, if you are a Republican, and you know it is highly likely you are going to lose the upcoming election, wouldn’t you want to go down fighting with someone who is actually one of you? Santorum is the Republican base. Romney is not. Gingrich tried to be, but besides his buffoonish bravado, he is not.

Santorum just may motivate the Republican base to be energized. He may actually do better than Romney against Obama with an energized Republican base rather than a depressed one. He will still lose, and lose big, like John McCain and Sarah Palin did. But at least he, and they, will go down fighting.