No candidate can win the nomination of either party without suffering a near death experience, a moment when the campaign suffers what appears to be a substantial if not fatal setback that would doom other less worthy campaigns. John McCain suffered his near death experience in the Summer of 2007 when he was last in the polls and losing money to such an extent that he shed his entire campaign organization. For Obama, given the protacted and epic battle against Hillary Clinton, he had two: Jeremiah Wright and the “Cling to their guns” gaffe. Bill Clinton also had two: Gennifer Flowers and the draft dodging revelations, but he was lucky enought for them to happen at the same time. George W. Bush losing New Hampshire to McCain was his near death experience. Papa Bush and Reagan lost Iowa.
Mitt Romney’s near death experience appeared to be his loss of South Carolina. At that moment, everything was conspiring against him. Rick Perry had dropped out and endorsed Gingrich, who surged to the front of all polls everywhere, including in Florida. It was during that weekend that Romney also found out that he lost Iowa after all, meaning that Romney, the already crowned nominee, had lost two of the first three contests and was in danger of losing Florida and the rest. Obituaries were being written of his campaign, including by me.
And then Mitt Romney unleashed the Super PAC dogs, and literally destroyed Newt Gingrich, and then smashed the remnants of Newt Gingrich into its component atoms. Because of Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich is a candidate who is dead but doesn’t know it, a reality confirmed last night. For his part, Mitt Romney went onto to win Florida and Nevada in convincing fashion, albeit the low turnout and low enthusiasm of the Republican primary voter was a concern that would dog his campaign into the general election, as would his epically and toxically low favorable and hig unfavorable numbers. Still, Romney was again the juggernaut. Unbeatable, especially by any of the three dwarfs running against him.
And then last night happened.
Santorum swept all three contests last night. He won Colorado 40-35 over Mitt. He won Minnesota 45-27 over Ron Paul. Mitt Romney, the presumptive nominee came in third with 17%!!! of the vote. And Santorum won the non binding primary in Missouri 55% to 25% over Romney.
What caused last night was not a specific scandal or gaffe. Republican primary voters just do not like, or outright hate, Mitt Romney, and they have been looking for any credible alternative to him for months. Which is why the Republican primary contest has had such a fickle and zig zag nature to it.
Nothing is going to change how Republican primary voters feel about Mitt Romney. Romney can do nothing to make these voters love him. All he can do now is destroy Rick Santorum as he destroyed Newt Gingrich, and in so doing, make himself even more unliked by everyone everywhere than he already is.
And chances are, he will succeed. I will bet everything that Mitt Romney is still going to be the nominee of the Republican, but he will be the most reviled and hated nominee of any party since…. since…. Herbert Hoover in 1932?