Wednesday Open Thread [2.15.12]

Michigan is Romney’s make-or-break moment:

[I]f Romney were to lose Michigan, it is very difficult to see how he can accumulate a majority of delegates … And if Santorum does well in [poorer Michigan] districts, he could transfer that support to the other rust belt states that look a lot like them. The most important of these rust belt states is Ohio, which votes on 7 March. Michigan has somewhat fewer born-again Christians and evangelicals than Ohio (46%) did in the 2008 Republican primary. It had a nearly equal percentage of those making greater than $200,000 to Ohio’s (5%). If Rick Santorum can win in both Michigan and Ohio, I can begin to see how he could conceivably put together enough delegates to reach a majority. He seems to be polling well enough in the south (leading in Tennessee, for example) to win the nomination – even if he loses in states like New York, New Jersey and California (though a recent poll there put him in a close second).

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY – PRESIDENT

MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Santorum 35, Romney 32, Paul 13, Gingrich 11

CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Romney 33, Santorum, 31, Gingrich 17, Paul 9

OHIO (Quinnipiac): Santorum 36, Romney 29, Gingrich 20, Paul 9.

“Rick Santorum has zoomed to the front of the line among likely voters in Ohio’s March 6 Republican presidential primary. He appears to be riding the momentum from his victories last week in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri. Unclear is whether that momentum fizzles as happened to Santorum in New Hampshire after winning Iowa, and as happened to Gov. Mitt Romney in South Carolina after winning New Hampshire and Speaker Newt Gingrich in Florida after taking South Carolina.”

NATIONAL (CBS/New York Times): Santorum 30, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 10

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Santorum 34, Romney 32, Paul 16, Gingrich 15

NATIONAL (Fairleigh Dickinson): Romney 33, Santorum 33, Gingrich 15, Paul 7

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 32, Santorum 30, Gingrich 16, Paul 8

GENERAL ELECTION – PRESIDENT

NATIONAL (CBS/NY Times): Obama d. Romney (48-42), Obama d. Santorum (49-41), Obama d. Paul (50-39), Obama d. Gingrich (54-36)

“Romney’s drop in support against the president is attributable to a shift among independents. Last month, independents favored the former Massachusetts governor by eight points over Mr. Obama. In the new survey, Mr. Obama holds the edge, leading Romney among independents by nine points.”

NATIONAL (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-42), Obama d. Santorum (49-44); Obama d. Paul (49-41); Obama d. Gingrich (52-40)

NATIONAL (Fairleigh Dickinson): Obama d. Romney (45-41); Obama d. Paul (46-39); Obama d. Santorum (48-39); Obama d. Gingrich (51-36)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-42); Obama d. Santorum (49-41)

MASSACHUSETTS (WBUR): Obama d. Romney (55-34); Obama d. Gingrich (66-19)

CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (60-31), Obama d. Gingrich (63-27), Obama d. Paul (60-29), Obama d. Santorum (61-29)

GENERAL ELECTION – SENATOR

MICHIGAN (Public Policy Polling): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) d. Pete Hoekstra (R), 51% to 37%, and Stabenow d. Clark Durant (R), 50% to 33%.

“Hoekstra appears to have been damaged by his controversial [and racist] Super Bowl ad. 54% of voters in the state were familiar with it, and within that group 45% said it made them less likely to vote for him compared to only 16% who considered it a positive and 37% who said it didn’t make a difference to them either way.”

MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) d. Joe Arwood (R), 59% to 28% and Klobuchar d. Dan Severson (R), 56% to 29%.

GENERAL ELECTION – GOVERNOR

WASHINGTON (Elway Poll): Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) d. Rep. Jay Inslee (D), 45% to 36%.