Wednesday Open Thread [3.7.12]
So Mitt Romney won Ohio barely, and only at the last second. Not a compelling narrative for his candidacy. He also ended up winning Virginia (where only Ron Paul was his competition), Vermont (neighboring state to his home state), Massachusetts (where he was Governor), Idaho (where there are Mormons) and Alaska. Santorum won Oklahoma, North Dakota and Tennessee. Gingrich won Georgia.
So what’s next? On Saturday, March 10, we have Kansas (which should be favorable to Santorum), and then on Tuesday, March 13, we have Alabama (Gingrich or Santorum), Hawaii (Romney), and Mississippi (Gingrich). A week after that on March 20, we have Illinois (which should be Romney-friendly), and then on Saturday, March 24, we have Louisiana (Santorum or Gingrich).
Booman, take it from there:
After Illinois, Romney’s next big challenge will be in Wisconsin where Santorum has been polling in the lead. If Romney sweeps Maryland, Washington DC, and Wisconsin on April 3rd, he’ll probably wrap this thing up that night. If he loses Wisconsin. he’ll have to wait until April 24th, when wins in New York , Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island will more than offset Santorum’s victory in Pennsylvania.
For Santorum to prevent Romney from winning a majority of the delegates, he’ll need to somehow win in Illinois and Wisconsin. I think it’s that simple. As for Gingrich, he can hope to follow up wins in Alabama and Mississippi with a win in Louisiana on March 24th. But after that, he’s out of Deep Southern states until Arkansas votes on May 22nd, followed by Texas on May 29th. Can Gingrich go from March 13th to May 24th without winning a single contest? I kind of doubt it. If he stays in after Illinois, it will be for the purpose of helping Romney by dividing the vote. If he drops out, Romney’s job gets a little harder.
There are no new polls yet, hopefully there will be some tomorrow.
It is hard to imagine, but if Gingrich had dropped out, Rick Santorum… RICK SANTORUM… would be the GOP’s presumptive nominee right now.
Rush Limbaugh related LOL of the day:
Someone needs to tell Councilman Brown that Jack Markell does not care if he’s a “councilman from the City of Wilmington,” and that he’s not going to drop everything to answer his call. Also, when you’re on the radio, you need to tell the people on the other end of the phone that you are broadcasting their call on WDEL.
Stop with the phony outrage over the state flag only flying at half-mast in memory of Rev. Moyer only in NCCo. It’s bullshit!
Hey Councilman Brown, instead of bloviating on Jensen’s show, why not go and take a long walk and lose some of that extra baggage you’re carrying.
The Economist can be a maddening publication, but when they’re on, they’re on. This time it is a piece critiquing the place the US finds itself (not master of its own fate, for certain) as the Israelis and Iraninans sabre-rattle. Read the whole thing.
Thanks for the link Cass,
The Economist certainly tilts conservative in its economic articles, but at least its a sane conservatism (similar to that espoused by David Frum, my favorite Conservative Canadian).
On international affairs, I think they are second only to Foreign Policy Magazine. This article is a breath of fresh air in the current atmosphere Republican chest-thumping. Obama’s no peacenik, but I appreciate having a president who won’t sugarcoat the tremendous costs of war. A strike on Iran has been talked about in foreign policy circles now for years, and for years most foreign policy experts have explained how terrible of an idea that was. It’s remains a terrible idea.
Hey MJ I know that since rudeness is ingrained in your nature you can not make a point without employing it. Councilman Brown and I share office space at the Connections Homeless Cafe in West Center City Wilmington, a place nothing like your ivory beach house. Mike takes lots of long walks on the meanest streets of Wilmington in his day job as Homeless outreach coordinator for Connections. below is a link to a recent issue of “One Step Away” that outlines some of that work. Why do you find it necessary to cast personal insults at folks that you either have never met or clearly don’t know?
http://www.addictionscoalitionde.org/images/OSADEC11.pdf
MJs house is not ivory, its taupe.
Just sayin
My bad:)
I’m going to have fun watching Republicans decide that they loved Mitt all along. It is going to be a pure hoot watching the numbnuts and losers at DelawarePolitics discover how deeply they have really loved Romney all these months.
Colbert (genius as usual) hints the the fun we have in store: