So Mitt Romney won Ohio barely, and only at the last second. Not a compelling narrative for his candidacy. He also ended up winning Virginia (where only Ron Paul was his competition), Vermont (neighboring state to his home state), Massachusetts (where he was Governor), Idaho (where there are Mormons) and Alaska. Santorum won Oklahoma, North Dakota and Tennessee. Gingrich won Georgia.
So what’s next? On Saturday, March 10, we have Kansas (which should be favorable to Santorum), and then on Tuesday, March 13, we have Alabama (Gingrich or Santorum), Hawaii (Romney), and Mississippi (Gingrich). A week after that on March 20, we have Illinois (which should be Romney-friendly), and then on Saturday, March 24, we have Louisiana (Santorum or Gingrich).
Booman, take it from there:
After Illinois, Romney’s next big challenge will be in Wisconsin where Santorum has been polling in the lead. If Romney sweeps Maryland, Washington DC, and Wisconsin on April 3rd, he’ll probably wrap this thing up that night. If he loses Wisconsin. he’ll have to wait until April 24th, when wins in New York , Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island will more than offset Santorum’s victory in Pennsylvania.
For Santorum to prevent Romney from winning a majority of the delegates, he’ll need to somehow win in Illinois and Wisconsin. I think it’s that simple. As for Gingrich, he can hope to follow up wins in Alabama and Mississippi with a win in Louisiana on March 24th. But after that, he’s out of Deep Southern states until Arkansas votes on May 22nd, followed by Texas on May 29th. Can Gingrich go from March 13th to May 24th without winning a single contest? I kind of doubt it. If he stays in after Illinois, it will be for the purpose of helping Romney by dividing the vote. If he drops out, Romney’s job gets a little harder.
There are no new polls yet, hopefully there will be some tomorrow.