Friday Open Thread [3.16.12]
Rasmussen is a poll that is known to have a Republican bias. We still include them in our poll coverage because, if you know that Rasmussen is biased at the start, and you are still winning by Rasmussen’s estimation, then you really are winning. So, knowing that, let’s take a look at Rasmussen’s latest two polls, as they are both logically inconsistent.
GENERAL ELECTION — PRESIDENT
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45); Obama d. Santorum (46-45)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (45-43); Obama d. Romney (46-43)
So, Obama is losing nationally to Romney and barely beating Santorum but somehow winning in Florida. That doesn’t make any sense. Like in 2008, if Obama wins Florida by a significant Rasmussen margin (3 points is more like 5-6 points in the real world), it means it is a blowout landslide across the country. So one of these polls is wrong, and it is probably the national tracking poll. That is because the poll sample in Florida is easier to define, while national polls are subject to wild and varying outcomes, as we saw with the CBS poll earlier this week.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY — PRESIDENT
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 35, Santorum 27, Gingrich 15, Paul 10
ILLINOIS (We Ask America): Romney 37, Santorum 31, Gingrich 14 and Paul 8.
A new Gallup Poll finds just 35% of Republicans say they would vote “enthusiastically” for either Mitt Romney if he wins the GOP nomination. Just 34% were enthusiastic about voting for Rick Santorum and only 28% were enthusiastic for Newt Gingrich.
DL folks, feel free to call and ask off topic questions:)
My newly refurbished heart and I will be joining Rick Jensen at 1:30 today on 1150 WDEL to discuss the growth and success of “One Step Away” the Newspaper by the homeless for people with homes. You can find the March Edition here: http://www.addictionscoalitionde.org/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2BWEr2S43U
anybody seen the “A Woman’s Voice” song on Lawrence O’Donnell last night? Barbara Boxer released it as a statement that recent political events, now more than ever, show the desperate need for female voices in government.
I got a little misty. Damn you, Barbara.
Great video. The commenter who said, “Who knew we would have to fight so hard for our rights in 2012?” Hit the nail on the head.
Republicans will never quit fighting to tear apart the social safety net and deny rights to non-whites and non-males, so we can never stop opposing them.
Who killed the bees? Syngenta and Monsanto, of course.
http://news.yahoo.com/honeybee-deaths-linked-corn-insecticides-221639948–abc-news.html
The AP article doesn’t mention them by name, surprise surprise, but guess who sells the corn insecticides and insecticide-friendly corn seeds? A little research on the topic shows that this isn’t really a new phenominon: Syngenta and Monsanto both fought bans on this class of insecticides before in Europe, where it was found to contribute to Colony Collapse Disorder. Yet another ecological collapse brought to you by Big Agribusiness.
In an attempt to make the Presidential race seem close, I could see Rasmussen being the go-to poll for the national media this year.
Rasmussen’s job in 2008 was to help make McCain look more competitive. Once the election was done, folks reviewing the polling statistics did not give Rassmussen a good grade for their national presidential polls. In fact, one or two of the aggregators presented their data in two ways — with and wthout Rassmussen — so you can see what an outlier they were that round.
The national outlets have a financial stake in making it seem close, but it pains me when Allan Loudell flushes his credibility down the toilet by pretending Rassmussen is legit.
I hear you. Same with sourcing Politico and the like. “Objectivity” as an investment in a “balanced” narrative rather than an exercise in helping you get information seems to persist in the face of it failing media consumers and practitioners.
@c “Rasmussen’s job in 2008 was to help make McCain look more competitive.”
That’s OK. Democrats need to be scared a bit to be driven to the polls. Republicans go like lemmings. Rasmussen is not helping who he thinks he is helping.
Good point, LE.
Good point. Democrats will stay home if they think it is in the bag.
I’ve been thinking about this…
Actually, I think that Rasmussen knows exactly what he’s doing. He is acting in a way that maximizes his profit. Every time he sells one of his biased polls to a right wing news source, he probably chuckles “suckers” under his breath.
I keep telling you guys this election has an un canny reseblence to 1980. (for those of you to young, I will start listing the similarities little by little over the next weeks and months. But as far as polling goes, all the polls had the race near even between reagan and carter with just two weeks to go, and reagon won by 10 percent, with well over 40 plus states. Exact same thing is going to happen this year, romney will win 40 plus states
In your analogy, Romney is Reagan. LMAO.
Yea. Rustyd***. Take it over to intrade and bet away. You can still get really good odds betting against Obama. You’ve clearly thought it through so well… What could go wrong?
This is awesome:
You only need $5 to sign up.
The new credit union was promoted by the Delaware Community Reinvestment Action Council (DCRAC) – check them out!
There’s a News Journal article too, but it’s paywalled, and besides I’ve reached my two-link quota for this comment.
“I keep telling you guys this election has an un canny reseblence to 1980.”
Rusty,
What do you see that appears like recent history repeating itself?
Trouble in Iran? Gas prices going up-up-up? Government boondoggles on the quest for clean energy? In 1980 it was synthetic gas (which didn’t work) & an oil embargo…and now we have Solyndra, Fisker, GM Volt, etc. I can only imagine what would happen with an oil embargo.