Rasmussen is a poll that is known to have a Republican bias. We still include them in our poll coverage because, if you know that Rasmussen is biased at the start, and you are still winning by Rasmussen’s estimation, then you really are winning. So, knowing that, let’s take a look at Rasmussen’s latest two polls, as they are both logically inconsistent.
GENERAL ELECTION — PRESIDENT
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45); Obama d. Santorum (46-45)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (45-43); Obama d. Romney (46-43)
So, Obama is losing nationally to Romney and barely beating Santorum but somehow winning in Florida. That doesn’t make any sense. Like in 2008, if Obama wins Florida by a significant Rasmussen margin (3 points is more like 5-6 points in the real world), it means it is a blowout landslide across the country. So one of these polls is wrong, and it is probably the national tracking poll. That is because the poll sample in Florida is easier to define, while national polls are subject to wild and varying outcomes, as we saw with the CBS poll earlier this week.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY — PRESIDENT
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 35, Santorum 27, Gingrich 15, Paul 10
ILLINOIS (We Ask America): Romney 37, Santorum 31, Gingrich 14 and Paul 8.
A new Gallup Poll finds just 35% of Republicans say they would vote “enthusiastically” for either Mitt Romney if he wins the GOP nomination. Just 34% were enthusiastic about voting for Rick Santorum and only 28% were enthusiastic for Newt Gingrich.