Friday Open Thread

The Creation Story:

It looks like Gallup Tracking has joined Rasmussen in Republican outlier territory. I wonder if Gallup is assuming a 2010 electorate. I might have to go digging into their internals later today. We know the story with Rasmussen: they deliberately poll more Republicans in proportion to their numbers in the previous cycle, all in effort to drive headlines. NBC/Wall St. Journal, PPP, Quinnipiac, and YouGov all give the President anywhere from a 3 to a 7 point lead. Gallup and Rasmussen give Romney a 5 and a 4 point lead, respectively.

I mean, how could Gallup Tracking and Rasmussen be right nationally when Fox News….. FOX NEWS! … has polls out today showing the President with a 2 point lead in Florida and a 6 point lead in Ohio.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 43
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Romney 46, Obama 45

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (NBC/Wall St. Journal): Obama 49, Romney 43
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 46, Romney 42
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 42

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (Fox News): Obama 45, Romney 43
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Romney 48, Obama 45
OHIO–PRESIDENT (Fox News): Obama 45, Romney 39

Meanwhile, a new Democracy Corps survey in the 56 most-competitive Republican held congressional districts finds President Obama now edging Mitt Romney, 48% to 47%. In December, Obama trailed by seven points.

“Democrats are winning the image battle, up and down the ticket. While half of the voters in these districts register cool feelings toward the Republican Party and Republican Congress, the Democratic Party has enjoyed an 8-point bump in favorability since September 2011, and Democrats in Congress have seen a 7-point rise.” [..]

“The Ryan budget is in trouble. Just 41% support it in these Republican districts with no description other than the fact that it cuts spending. When described, including using Ryan’s own language, support collapses to 34%.”

Yes, Republicans, please run on the Ryan budget. And yes, Republicans, please run a contrasting campaign between the President’s economic policy and governing ideology and yours. Because if you do that, the Democrats and President Obama will win in a landslide of biblical proportions. This week’s CBS/NYTimes poll had some more interesting tibdits other than their presidential horserace numbers:

Which do you think is the best way to promote economic growth in the U.S.? 1. Lower taxes on individuals and businesses, and pay for those tax cuts by spending on some government services and programs, or 2. Spend more on education and the nation’s infrastructure, and raise taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses to pay for that spending.

Lower taxes, cut spending: 37
Spend more, raise taxes: 56

Do you think the government should be doing more to help improve the financial situation of middle class Americans, should it be doing less, or do you think the government is doing the right amount to help improve the financial situation of middle class Americans?

Do more: 67Do less: 15
Doing right amount: 14

In general, do you think the government should be doing more to help the housing market improve, should it be doing less, or is the government doing the right amount?

More: 52Less: 16

Do you feel you pay more than your fair share in federal income taxes, less than your fair share, or is the amount you pay about right?

More than fair: 36
Less than fair: 2
About right: 58

What about upper-income Americans? Do you feel upper-income people pay more than their fair share in federal income taxes, less than their fair share, or is the amount they pay about right?

More than fair: 11
Less than fair: 57About right: 24