Friday Open Thread [4.27.12]: Electoral College Map Edition
As we move further along into the general election, national polls become less important and the electoral college map becomes more so. The Huffington Post’s Electoral College Map was launched earlier this week:
Then Karl Rove got into the act:
I am not sure what Rove is smoking making us think Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Dakota are only leaning Republican while Colorado is in the bag for Obama. It is most likely a Rovian mind trick, trying to get us to spend money there. So I started looking at all the state polls on the Huffington Post map, and determined that I too would maintain our own DL map in the open threads day to day, based on only the latest polls in that state, except for Rasmussen polls for obvious reasons.
Our methodology will be very simple. If there is a ten point lead for either candidate, it is a strong state for that candidate. The colors will be Dark blue for Obama, dark red, almost maroon, for Romney. If the lead for a candidate in a state is between 5 points and 10 points, then it is a lean state for that candidate, and thus the state is colored a lighter shade of blue or red. If the lead for any candidate is under 5 points, or if the candidates are tied, then the state is too close to call. If no polls have been conducted in a state, we go by the 2008 result.
So, to my surprise, Tennessee, Texas and South Carolina are sort-of in play as “lean R” states, as they show a lead for Romney of only between 5 and 10 points. But there are no recent polls in George or North Dakota or Kentucky to justify Rove’s classification.
Here is the map.
Obama 290
Romney 169
Too Close to Call 79
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov/The Economist): Romney 47, Obama 46
ARIZONA–PRESIDENT (Rocky Mountain Poll): Obama 42, Romney 40
INDIANA–SENATOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Richard Mourdock 44, Sen. Dick Lugar 39
I still stop everything and listen intently whenever Bill Clinton speaks.
It sucks that the red states are so thinly populated with crazy codgers, but cover so much ground.
Yup, people who rarely have to interact with other humans, and even rarelyer interact with “folks who are dif’rent” tend to vote conservative. Meanwhile, those of us who are exposed to the beauty of human diversity and must learn to share resources vote sanely.
“Yup, people who rarely have to interact with other humans, and even rarelyer interact with foks who are different tend to vote conservative. Meanwhile, those of us who are exposed to the beauty of human diversity and must learn to share resources vote sanely.”
Translation: Those of us who want someone besides ourselves to pay for things vote for the democrat.
I hate to break the bad news to everyone here, but these polls are only small samplings 500-1000 people. As the recent primaries have proofed, not very accurate.
The one that nobody is right about is this, California is going for Romney, and that is really going to shake up everyone’s numbers.
Rusty, that is the craziest thing you have ever said, and you have a long history of saying batshit crazy things. And most polls are based on random samples of 500-1000 people. And most of them are relatively accurate.
Who is more despicable Gordon or KWS?
How is this a Yes/No question
Just askin”
It is funnier that way. (I have to explain everything?)
“Those of us who want someone besides ourselves to pay for things vote for the democrat.”
Funny how the people who get peanuts for nothing really bother you conservatives, while you don’t even notice the plutocrats raping you up the ass on a daily basis. I guess it’s all in what bothers you: Democrats hate having corporate dicks up their ass against their will, while it doesn’t bother Republicans at all; they just wish they didn’t have to see poor people while the Koch Bros. are pumping away at them.
@G “Funny how the people who get peanuts for nothing really bother you conservatives”
It’s even funnier when you stop to think that most of the people getting those peanuts are, in fact, conservatives.
As for electoral college maps, this will be the one to watch (based on Intrade):
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php
That intrade map is awesome. It has Obama at 250 with RI, VT, MD, Ill as tossups because they haven’t been polled. That’s another 37 electoral votes right there. Illinois alone puts B.H.O over the top.
“It’s even funnier when you stop to think that most of the people getting those peanuts are, in fact, conservatives.”
But…but…but they’re black! Everyone on welfare is black, except for the illegal aliens!
I know most people think I am crazy when I say that California will go to Romney. But here is my logic, California went republican in 1968, Nixon, 1972, Nixon, 1976 Ford, 1980, Reagan, 1984, Reagan, 1988 Bush Sr. Has gone democratic since. Now look at how California as a state has done financially the last 20-25 years. 25 years ago they were good, then they went to medium, then they went to bad, then they went to horrible. Is anyone senseing a pattern here, Even with all California’s riches (like Texas they have alot of them, Abundant natural resourses, abundant tourism, abundant wealth amongst the population.)they are in horrible shape.they, have gotten in horrible shape the last 20 years. So I think the electorate at some point is going to say, hey wait minute, maybe we can’t afford to give all these rights to illegal alliens, maybe we can’t pay city employees $93,000 per year.(The average city of san francisco employee makes $93,000 per year.) And maybe voting for a democratic president who promotes giving all of our hard earned money away to the free loaders is no longer the way we want to go.
Lets check out this Mitt Romney guy, instead of waisting and losing money, he seems to know how to not only make money, but save money as well. Lets go ahead and give him a try.
Watch the polls month to month on California, you are going to be more amazed by how Romney closes the gap and eventually wins this state than by anything else in the election.
AZ and NV will go to Romney. May as well send it back to the printer now :).
I don’t know if it is crazy or stupid dils. Take a look at what California did to itself by making it illegal to raise property taxes and get back to me regarding your patterns.
Rusty,
You’re so simple.
Rusty is under the impression that he is speaking to his fellow wingnut republicans who will buy pretty much anything they are told.
No, they don’t believe me either, “I’m just saying,” watch the California Presidential Polls over the next 6 months, it is going to be amazing
@Rd “watch the California Presidential Polls”
Hey Rusty: Have you ever been to California? Recently? I was there last month and I’ll tell you. The place has changed since I was a student there.
Romney has zero traction there, and that’s where it will stay. Your views of Obama are cartoonish at best: “president who promotes giving all of our hard earned money away to the free loaders”. Those views are not shared by the masses. The ongoing GOP giveaway to the 1% bothers most working people far more.
I think in the end, Arizona will go to Romney. But it is a swing state this year and will be competitive. Nevada will go to Obama rather easily.
@DD “I think in the end, Arizona will go to Romney.”
Only for 2012. In the end, Arizona will be as blue as New Mexico. Every year, the fraction of conservative white voters goes down and down. Much of the crazy politics coming from the place is like the machinations of the Skeksis clinging to power.
“Arizona will be as blue as New Mexico.” Not if the voter suppression works as planned.
AZ might go D, especially if HB 1070 is upheld and there is a Latino voter backlash against the rethuglicans. Might even be enough to take the Senate seat.
The one thing that obama could do to fair better in the general election, he refuses to do, do what we hired him to do, run the country. Stop campaigning, and run the country. The electorate are not stupid, no matter what party affiliation you are, it is becoming way to obvious to people that president obama is just campaigning, and not doing his job. That is the reason all your blue leaning state predictions are going to be wrong, all the hard working electorate are just not going to vote for someone who refuses to work
Wait a minute Rusty, what job has Mitt Romney had over the past 5 years? Remember, campaigning for President isn’t a job.
Idealist, you finally got it. Romney is not supposed to be doing a job. Obama is supposed to be doing a job, running the country, not campaigning
AZ will go at least purple – the Latino backlash has already started with the removal of Senator and SB1070 sponsor Russell Pearce in a recall election.
The Latino vote in AZ is pivotal and definately in play.
Somos Republicans broke for Obama, due to Romney’s cozy companion, Kris Kobach author of SB1070 – (not all of them, but many)
la familia is sacred to Latinos
its “game on” in AZ