As we move further along into the general election, national polls become less important and the electoral college map becomes more so. The Huffington Post’s Electoral College Map was launched earlier this week:
Then Karl Rove got into the act:
I am not sure what Rove is smoking making us think Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Dakota are only leaning Republican while Colorado is in the bag for Obama. It is most likely a Rovian mind trick, trying to get us to spend money there. So I started looking at all the state polls on the Huffington Post map, and determined that I too would maintain our own DL map in the open threads day to day, based on only the latest polls in that state, except for Rasmussen polls for obvious reasons.
Our methodology will be very simple. If there is a ten point lead for either candidate, it is a strong state for that candidate. The colors will be Dark blue for Obama, dark red, almost maroon, for Romney. If the lead for a candidate in a state is between 5 points and 10 points, then it is a lean state for that candidate, and thus the state is colored a lighter shade of blue or red. If the lead for any candidate is under 5 points, or if the candidates are tied, then the state is too close to call. If no polls have been conducted in a state, we go by the 2008 result.
So, to my surprise, Tennessee, Texas and South Carolina are sort-of in play as “lean R” states, as they show a lead for Romney of only between 5 and 10 points. But there are no recent polls in George or North Dakota or Kentucky to justify Rove’s classification.
Here is the map.
Obama 290
Romney 169
Too Close to Call 79
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov/The Economist): Romney 47, Obama 46
ARIZONA–PRESIDENT (Rocky Mountain Poll): Obama 42, Romney 40
INDIANA–SENATOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Richard Mourdock 44, Sen. Dick Lugar 39
I still stop everything and listen intently whenever Bill Clinton speaks.
