Polling and Electoral Map Update [5.2.12]

In some polls, President Obama’s approval averages are above 50%, but in Gallup (which has been more bearish on Obama but not as bad as Rasmussen), his average has just reached 47%. This is an improvement over his term low of 41% reached during the debt ceiling hostage crisis last summer. The reason for the improvement:

The improvement in Obama’s approval rating among independents makes his ratings essentially even within that group, as 43% now approve and 45% disapprove of the job he is doing. In August, his approval-disapproval spread among independents was -18 points, with a 35% approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating.

Obama’s ratings have especially improved among independent women, who are now more likely to approve (46%) than disapprove (42%) of the job he is doing. His rating remains net-negative among independent men, 41% approval and 49% disapproval.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (47-43)
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-43)WEST VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (RL Repass and Partners): Romney d. Obama (54-37)
MONTANA–SENATOR (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 43
NEVADA–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 51, Shelley Berkley (D) 40
WEST VIRGINIA–GOVERNOR (RL Repass and Partners): Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) 60, Bill Maloney (R) 32
WEST VIRGINIA–SENATOR (RL Repass and Partners): Sen. Joe Manchin (D) 74, John Raese (R) 22

PPP polled the student loan interest rate debate:

Q: Who do you trust more to keep interest rates on student loans low: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama: 52
Mitt Romney: 31
Both equally: 10
Not sure: 7

Q: Do you think Congress should extend the current low interest rate on student loans, or not?
Yes: 75
No: 16
Not sure: 9

So we have two changes to our electoral map. Virginia and North Carolina change places. Virginia goes from too close to call to lean Obama and North Carolina goes from lean Obama to too close to call. West Virginia remains the same.

Obama 288
Romney 169
Too Close to Call 81

Remember, the yellow states are too close to call states, which means that either the candidates are tied or that no candidate leads by more than 5 points.

The light blue or light red states mean that, respectively, Obama or Romney lead by between 5 and 9.9 points.

The dark blue and dark red states mean that Obama or Romney lead by 10 or more points.