Friday Polling Report [5.4.12]
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Democracy Corps): Obama 47, Romney 47
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45
RIDICULOUS CORE STATES CONFIGURATION THAT TELLS US NOTHING (FL, NC, OH, VA)–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Obama 46, Romney 43
ARIZONA–PRESIDENT (Magellan Strategies): Romney 52, Obama 43
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Romney 44, Obama 43
OHIO–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 42, Romney 42>
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 47, Romney 39
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (Washington Post): Obama 51, Romney 44
Meanwhile, the President is at 51% approval according to Gallup. At this precise moment in 1984, President Reagan was at 52%. It is kinda remarkable how closely the polling of their respective Presidencies sync up.
So let’s update our map. Arizona moves from toss up to lean Romney. Ohio moves from lean Obama to toss up. Pennsylvania stays as lean Obama. And Virginia moves from strong Obama to lean Obama.
Obama: 284
Romney: 167
Toss up: 87
ARIZONA–SENATOR (Magellan Strategies): Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 40
MONTANA–GOVERNOR (PPP): Steve Bullock (D) 39, Rick Hill (R) 39; Bullock 41, Ken Miller (R) 35
INDIANA–SENATOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll): Richard Mourdock (R) 48, Sen. Richard Lugar 38.
Why’d you move Arizona to Romney over one poll? Still a toss up, IMHO.
One of the most objective writings I have ever seen from Delaware Dem.
Cuz DD is correct to move AZ to Romney……and Colorado too…………
JC – is that mostly based on the Mormon vote or something else?
I dont see how Obama win’s Arizona.. there’s no way Sheriff Joe would let that many illegal aliens and communists make it to the polls
Nemski, whenever a new poll comes out in a state, I change the map. Since this is a daily report, the map will change quite a bit.
Joanne, Romney will not win Colorado. Obama will win that easily in the end. But he will probably win Arizona
A new poll out of Iowa and Missouri coming out tomorrow will put both states in Obama’s column. Nice.
@DD “Nemski, whenever a new poll comes out in a state, I change the map.”
That would seem to fluctuate a bit too much. Many of those polls are flawed. Why not do a weighted average of the last three or four polls, like they do over at RCP?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
And that’s why I like the one based on Intrade. It’s self averaging and self correcting when new polls come out:
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php
Right now the polls are pointing to a win by Obama at about 300 and with a standard deviation of about 35, giving Obama about a 85% likelihood of victory assuming each state is an independent race. Intrade only has Obama at 60% overall, which is valid since the states are most definitely not independent events.
@DD “Obama: 284
Romney: 167
Toss up: 87”
Also, your map above looks more like:
Obama: 270
Romney: 181
Toss up: 87