Today is primary day in Indiana, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Senator Lugar of Indiana will most likely be forcibly retired by his own Christine O’Donnell. Democrats in Wisconsin will decide who will face the anti-worker Governor Scott Walker. Onto the polls:
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney 46, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Politico/GWU/Battleground): Romney 48 Obama 47
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (TIPP for Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor): Obama 46, Romney 43
TOTALLY MEANINGLESS STUPID “SWING STATES” CONFIGURATION–PRESIDENT (Gallup): Obama 47, Romney 45
I mean really, between this and the Core States configuration we have seen from Rasmussen, I cannot think a more idiotic waste of polling dollars. Until such time as all the swing states combine to form one giant mega-state called Virflorcarolmexzonacolorahio, these polls are just a smaller form of the national polls, which also don’t tell us much. The individual states are where the presidency is decided and thus the individual state polls are where the polling should be directed.
But that poll does have some interesting internals:
“But the poll also finds a reversal in what has been a key GOP asset in the five previous battleground surveys taken since last fall: an edge in enthusiasm among voters. For the first time, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting — a shift from a 14-percentage-point GOP advantage at the end of last year to an 11-point deficit now. […]
By a yawning 27 points, those surveyed describe Obama as more likable than Romney — not a frivolous asset. The candidate viewed as more likable has prevailed in every election since 1980. Even among Romney’s supporters, one in four call Obama more likable…By 10 points, voters say Obama is more likely to care about the needs of people like themselves. By 7 points, they call Obama a stronger and more decisive leader.”
First Read also notes that in a close election (as these national and semi-national polls are saying it is right now), the ground game is of vital importance. And guess who has the edge there:
[The Obama campaign is] far ahead …. of the Romney campaign when it comes to organizing on the ground. It’s not even close on this front; It’s amazing how in just eight short years, the Republicans have allowed one of their great strengths from 2004 (field organizing) to simply disappear. If a close election is decided on mechanics: advantage Obama. By the way, with all this back-n-forth on crowd sizes — it’s fair to say Obama ’08 would have out-drawn Obama ’12 in both cities. But the problem for the GOP is that Obama ’12 still outdraws Romney ’12… and by a LOT. Will Romney address a crowd as large as Obama did on Saturday before Tampa?”
No new map today as there hasn’t been a new state poll in several days. Yes, I am going through withdrawal. And to answer a commenter last week, I think it was Liberal Elite, about why I change the map with every new poll instead of just averaging the most recent polls together and only change the map when the average changes: well, that’s how most of the news organizations are doing it, and it is probably a fairer way to do it, but since I am discounting the polls that would normally be outliers (i.e. Rasmussen), I feel comfortable changing it with every recent poll. Yeah, more work for me, but more fun for you, I guess.