Just a refresher on how we rate states as strong or lean or tossup.
If a candidate has a 10 point lead or more, that state is a strong state for that candidate. If it is a strong Obama state, the color is dark blue. If it is a strong Romney state, the color is dark red or maroon.
If a candidate has between a 5 and a 10 point lead (technically 5.0 to 9.99), then that state is a lean statwe for that candidate. If it is a lean Obama state, the color is light blue. If it is a lean Romney state, the color is light red.
And if a state shows a lead for a candidate between 0 points and 4.99 points, or if both candidates are tied, then it is a tossup state. Tossup states are colored yellow or gold.
I use only the most recent poll, not an average. And I do not use Rasmussen.
IOWA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 41.
This will change Iowa on our map from Tossup to Strong Obama.
OHIO–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 43.
This will change Ohio back to lean Obama from tossup.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Romney 44, Obama 39, Paul 13
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama 49, Romney 42
MASSACHUSETTS–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45
VIRGINIA–SENATOR (Washington Post): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46
So here is our revised map, with Iowa switching from toss up to strong Obama. The rest remains the same.
Obama 294
Romney 181
Toss up 63
If you want to check my math, go here.
